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That's not an argument. You're just asserting that it's not possible.

by jolux 10y ago

WalterBright 10y ago
The rise in government's share of the economy correlates with the rise in the economic ills. What is the basis for thinking there is an inflection point where the correlation reverses?
- ACow_Adonis 10y ago
  Well, if the correlation exists because government spending is a lagging/sticky indicator, and what's actually happening is that globalisation is hollowing out the manufacturing/wage earning class,there's no evidence that it will reverse, but the causation of this phenomenon is the opposite direction: government expenditure is increasing as a percentage of the economy because the other private part is collapsing, not because government expenditure is crowding private expenditure. In this instance it is an early indicator of distress, but not necessarily the cause.
- jolux 10y ago
  Economic ills? Well consider that numerous other developed nations have large amounts of state-owned industry and that if anything their economies are stronger than ours.
  - WalterBright 10y ago
    Consider a 25 year return on investment in the economy. Adjusted for inflation and including dividends, it's about 9% for the S&P 500: http://www.moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm http://www.moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm Are there any developed economies with a higher figure?
    - ACow_Adonis 10y ago
      To be fair, most other developed nations don't have the American military or a worldwide reserve currency either...so comparisons are kinda moot...
    - damptowel 10y ago
      How much of that is due to capital flight from economies which are actively downsizing their public investments?
- zzalpha 10y ago
  What's the basis for the assumption that correlation equals causation? Heck, where's the evidence for your purported correlation in the first place?
- in_cahoots 10y ago
  The 'rise in the economic ills' also correlates with a rise in life expectancy. To make a modest proposal, does that mean we should start killing off the elderly and the very young?
- collyw 10y ago
  Germany seems to be doing better than most of Europe, despite having higher taxes than most of the countries.
- antisthenes 10y ago
  > The rise in government's share of the economy correlates with the rise in the economic ills. That's pure BS that's never been supported by any evidence. Every developed country with strong property rights has seen an increase in quality of life and prosperity as the share of government's spending as % of GDP increased. You won't see it on recent graphs though. If you want to see evidence that this is true, you have to look as far back as the 19th century. There is plenty of information to suggest that %30-%40 is the optimal level of government's share in spending and the fact that most of the developed world has converged on those numbers over time should dissuade all but the most delusional libertarians that the notion of "minuscule government" is nothing more than a wet dream.

That's not an argument. You're just asserting that it's not possible.

by jolux 10y ago

That's not an argument. You're just asserting that it's not possible.

The rise in government's share of the economy correlates with the rise in the economic ills. What is the basis for thinking there is an inflection point where the correlation reverses?

ACow_Adonis 10y ago
Well, if the correlation exists because government spending is a lagging/sticky indicator, and what's actually happening is that globalisation is hollowing out the manufacturing/wage earning class,there's no evidence that it will reverse, but the causation of this phenomenon is the opposite direction: government expenditure is increasing as a percentage of the economy because the other private part is collapsing, not because government expenditure is crowding private expenditure. In this instance it is an early indicator of distress, but not necessarily the cause.
jolux 10y ago
Economic ills? Well consider that numerous other developed nations have large amounts of state-owned industry and that if anything their economies are stronger than ours.
- WalterBright 10y ago
  Consider a 25 year return on investment in the economy. Adjusted for inflation and including dividends, it's about 9% for the S&P 500: http://www.moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm http://www.moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm Are there any developed economies with a higher figure?
  - ACow_Adonis 10y ago
    To be fair, most other developed nations don't have the American military or a worldwide reserve currency either...so comparisons are kinda moot...
  - damptowel 10y ago
    How much of that is due to capital flight from economies which are actively downsizing their public investments?
zzalpha 10y ago
What's the basis for the assumption that correlation equals causation? Heck, where's the evidence for your purported correlation in the first place?
in_cahoots 10y ago
The 'rise in the economic ills' also correlates with a rise in life expectancy. To make a modest proposal, does that mean we should start killing off the elderly and the very young?
collyw 10y ago
Germany seems to be doing better than most of Europe, despite having higher taxes than most of the countries.
antisthenes 10y ago
> The rise in government's share of the economy correlates with the rise in the economic ills. That's pure BS that's never been supported by any evidence. Every developed country with strong property rights has seen an increase in quality of life and prosperity as the share of government's spending as % of GDP increased. You won't see it on recent graphs though. If you want to see evidence that this is true, you have to look as far back as the 19th century. There is plenty of information to suggest that %30-%40 is the optimal level of government's share in spending and the fact that most of the developed world has converged on those numbers over time should dissuade all but the most delusional libertarians that the notion of "minuscule government" is nothing more than a wet dream.