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I think, due to climate change, in the next 50 years we'll see large subpopulations (millions) experiencing decline and migration by way of disease, war, natura

by cel1ne 10y ago

I think, due to climate change, in the next 50 years we'll see large subpopulations (millions) experiencing decline and migration by way of disease, war, natural disaster etc.

icebraining 10y ago
This is an easy prediction, since it's already true; dozens of millions of people are already displaced by war every year: http://www.unhcr.org/news/latest/2015/6/558193896/worldwide-displacement-hits-all-time-high-war-persecution-increase.html http://www.unhcr.org/news/latest/2015/6/558193896/worldwide-...
deleted 10y ago
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PeterisP 10y ago
Subpopulations of millions or tens of millions (0.1%-1% of total) are small, not large. From the viewpoint of species preservation, decline in some of them is insignificant; complete extinction of some such subpopulations would reduce diversity but still wouldn't threaten the species as such, only the affected subpopulations - and even then, due to widespread migration the diversity would be preserved in a larger extent than any of the somewhat threatened animal species. An event that kills all humans in one continent would be horrible but would not present "a threat to humans" in the meaning of species survival/preservation. An event that kills 90% of people worldwide would be horrible but again, would not present a threat to species survival, the humans were just as dominant in 1700s with less than a billion of us than we are now with 7.4 billion. Global warming can really hurt hundreds of millions of people, but it doesn't have the potential to be an extinction event, you need far more serious threats for that.
- johnchristopher 10y ago
  > An event that kills 90% of people worldwide would be horrible but again, would not present a threat to species survival [..] Speaking of which, wasn't there some kind of massive reduction of the homo sapiens population at two point in time ? I seem to recall a documentary with a few scattered tribes walking in the blizzard. Something like ony 10 000 humans left.
njharman 10y ago
Decline and migration due to climate/more localized environmental change has been going on forEVER. Some manmade, some not. See ice ages, desertification, deforestation.

by cel1ne 10y ago

I think, due to climate change, in the next 50 years we'll see large subpopulations (millions) experiencing decline and migration by way of disease, war, natural disaster etc.

icebraining 10y ago

This is an easy prediction, since it's already true; dozens of millions of people are already displaced by war every year: http://www.unhcr.org/news/latest/2015/6/558193896/worldwide-displacement-hits-all-time-high-war-persecution-increase.html http://www.unhcr.org/news/latest/2015/6/558193896/worldwide-...

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

PeterisP 10y ago

Subpopulations of millions or tens of millions (0.1%-1% of total) are small, not large. From the viewpoint of species preservation, decline in some of them is insignificant; complete extinction of some such subpopulations would reduce diversity but still wouldn't threaten the species as such, only the affected subpopulations - and even then, due to widespread migration the diversity would be preserved in a larger extent than any of the somewhat threatened animal species. An event that kills all humans in one continent would be horrible but would not present "a threat to humans" in the meaning of species survival/preservation. An event that kills 90% of people worldwide would be horrible but again, would not present a threat to species survival, the humans were just as dominant in 1700s with less than a billion of us than we are now with 7.4 billion. Global warming can really hurt hundreds of millions of people, but it doesn't have the potential to be an extinction event, you need far more serious threats for that.

johnchristopher 10y ago
> An event that kills 90% of people worldwide would be horrible but again, would not present a threat to species survival [..] Speaking of which, wasn't there some kind of massive reduction of the homo sapiens population at two point in time ? I seem to recall a documentary with a few scattered tribes walking in the blizzard. Something like ony 10 000 humans left.

njharman 10y ago

Decline and migration due to climate/more localized environmental change has been going on forEVER. Some manmade, some not. See ice ages, desertification, deforestation.