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Weird. This coup of July 16 failed in exactly the same way as the coup against Hitler of July 20 failed - a small group of military sub-leadership, a failed bom

Weird. This coup of July 16 failed in exactly the same way as the coup against Hitler of July 20 failed - a small group of military sub-leadership, a failed bomb attack against the leader, a half-hearted attempt to secure the capital, all breaking down with the leader re-connecting with the non-cooperating rest of government and military. And now most likely horrible revenge against all involved. I always thought people from the military would at least consider the historic scenarios.

cies 10y ago
I don't know for Hitler's July 20 coup, but he is known to have staged several "false flag" attacks against Germany / German gov't, while in power. For instance the Reichstag fire: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reichstag_fire https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reichstag_fire And this one (which is not even "doubted" by Wikipedia): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gleiwitz_incident https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gleiwitz_incident
- elcapitan 10y ago
  The 20th of July was the coup against Hitler ("Valkyrie", https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Valkyrie https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Valkyrie). And the Reichstag fire was not a false flag operation, it was just exploited afterwards as an excuse to finish up German democracy. The perpetrator had a criminal record for arson. Maybe you should read articles that you link to?
  - tpush 10y ago
    And the Reichstag fire was not a false flag operation, it was just exploited afterwards as an excuse to finish up German democracy. The perpetrator had a criminal record for arson. Maybe you should read articles that you link to? From the Reichsbrand Wikipedia link: The responsibility for the Reichstag fire remains an ongoing topic of debate and research.[3][4] Historians disagree as to whether van der Lubbe acted alone, as he said, to protest the condition of the German working class. The Nazis accused the Comintern of the act. Some historians endorse the theory, proposed by the Communist Party, that the arson was planned and ordered by the Nazis as a false flag operation.[5]
    - elcapitan 10y ago
      If you actually read the two sources for that statement, it's clear that the disagreement is about the party affiliation. Except for communists claiming it to be a false flag operation, there is nothing in support of that theory and nobody supporting it.
internaut 10y ago
One possibility is that this was not a real coup but a power grab where an army faction was unwittingly manipulated by the government.
- geverett 10y ago
  This is a really well put analysis from a friend of a friend, Alp Eren Topal, a researcher at one of Turkey's most prestigious universities: 'For the last couple of weeks there were rumors to the effect that a large group of ranked officers in Turkish Armed Forces would be forced to retire by the end of summer. My guess is that last night's move was an organized attempt by this group of officers. The quite obvious lack of organization and inefficiency observed in the attempted coup can also be explained without resorting to conspiracy theories or theatricality of a staged ploy: The junta prepares for, or at least entertains the idea of a coup but somehow the news of the attempt is leaked and rumor gets around. Government learns about this. The disappearance of Erdoğan for the last week and the excitement of several foreign embassies in the last few days can also be attributed to these rumors. It is also quite possible that the government, with the comfort of being forewarned and realizing the limits of the junta, may have planned to turn this into an advantage and instrumentalize a potential coup for its own benefit. They may have also planned to catch all the junta in the act thus making it a more open and shut case. Obviously the junta would know that its cover had been blown and in return they may have acted prematurely as a last resort, to save their asses and made the last night's gamble. I think, this is the most logical explanation of why the coup seemed like a farce. As to the the aftermath, I think Erdoğan is most right when he frames this as a providence from God. This coup attempt could not have come at a better time. The u-turn in foreign policy, the admittance of failure in Syria, the great purge within the party, the issue of Syrian refugees all had brought the party esprit-de-corps to an all time low and alienated Erdoğan to his base. And as such, it provided Erdoğan a decisive victory in domestic politics. Now he is a victorious leader once again, a veteran. The people flooding the streets were also united in their leader's defense and this turned into an opportunity to overcome the alienation. Erdoğan will once again acquire the status of rightly-guided leader who is led and provided by by God. And of course there is no doubt that he will use this credit to utmost limits. Kind of like the Auspicious Affair (Vaka-yı Hayriye) of 1826 whereby the Janissary corps were abolished once and for-all, this failed coup has a facet of auspiciousness. Yet, imagining the aftermath we can also predict that it will have several facets which will prove quite oppressive and burdensome for Turkish citizens.'

cies 10y ago

I don't know for Hitler's July 20 coup, but he is known to have staged several "false flag" attacks against Germany / German gov't, while in power. For instance the Reichstag fire: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reichstag_fire https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reichstag_fire And this one (which is not even "doubted" by Wikipedia): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gleiwitz_incident https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gleiwitz_incident

elcapitan 10y ago
The 20th of July was the coup against Hitler ("Valkyrie", https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Valkyrie https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Valkyrie). And the Reichstag fire was not a false flag operation, it was just exploited afterwards as an excuse to finish up German democracy. The perpetrator had a criminal record for arson. Maybe you should read articles that you link to?
- tpush 10y ago
  And the Reichstag fire was not a false flag operation, it was just exploited afterwards as an excuse to finish up German democracy. The perpetrator had a criminal record for arson. Maybe you should read articles that you link to? From the Reichsbrand Wikipedia link: The responsibility for the Reichstag fire remains an ongoing topic of debate and research.[3][4] Historians disagree as to whether van der Lubbe acted alone, as he said, to protest the condition of the German working class. The Nazis accused the Comintern of the act. Some historians endorse the theory, proposed by the Communist Party, that the arson was planned and ordered by the Nazis as a false flag operation.[5]
  - elcapitan 10y ago
    If you actually read the two sources for that statement, it's clear that the disagreement is about the party affiliation. Except for communists claiming it to be a false flag operation, there is nothing in support of that theory and nobody supporting it.

internaut 10y ago

One possibility is that this was not a real coup but a power grab where an army faction was unwittingly manipulated by the government.

geverett 10y ago
This is a really well put analysis from a friend of a friend, Alp Eren Topal, a researcher at one of Turkey's most prestigious universities: 'For the last couple of weeks there were rumors to the effect that a large group of ranked officers in Turkish Armed Forces would be forced to retire by the end of summer. My guess is that last night's move was an organized attempt by this group of officers. The quite obvious lack of organization and inefficiency observed in the attempted coup can also be explained without resorting to conspiracy theories or theatricality of a staged ploy: The junta prepares for, or at least entertains the idea of a coup but somehow the news of the attempt is leaked and rumor gets around. Government learns about this. The disappearance of Erdoğan for the last week and the excitement of several foreign embassies in the last few days can also be attributed to these rumors. It is also quite possible that the government, with the comfort of being forewarned and realizing the limits of the junta, may have planned to turn this into an advantage and instrumentalize a potential coup for its own benefit. They may have also planned to catch all the junta in the act thus making it a more open and shut case. Obviously the junta would know that its cover had been blown and in return they may have acted prematurely as a last resort, to save their asses and made the last night's gamble. I think, this is the most logical explanation of why the coup seemed like a farce. As to the the aftermath, I think Erdoğan is most right when he frames this as a providence from God. This coup attempt could not have come at a better time. The u-turn in foreign policy, the admittance of failure in Syria, the great purge within the party, the issue of Syrian refugees all had brought the party esprit-de-corps to an all time low and alienated Erdoğan to his base. And as such, it provided Erdoğan a decisive victory in domestic politics. Now he is a victorious leader once again, a veteran. The people flooding the streets were also united in their leader's defense and this turned into an opportunity to overcome the alienation. Erdoğan will once again acquire the status of rightly-guided leader who is led and provided by by God. And of course there is no doubt that he will use this credit to utmost limits. Kind of like the Auspicious Affair (Vaka-yı Hayriye) of 1826 whereby the Janissary corps were abolished once and for-all, this failed coup has a facet of auspiciousness. Yet, imagining the aftermath we can also predict that it will have several facets which will prove quite oppressive and burdensome for Turkish citizens.'