9 ms·

I believe I read somewhere that if the caliphate falls it means that they never truly had the mandate of heaven. How could their followers justify continued obe

by dicroce 10y ago

I believe I read somewhere that if the caliphate falls it means that they never truly had the mandate of heaven. How could their followers justify continued obedience?

eternalban 10y ago
I guess we finally have proof that the mandate of the deep state and CIA isn't enough to start up a bogus "khalifate", no matter how many weapons drops end up in "enemy" hands. (If you entertain these stories about ISIS or whatever name they call it these days do yourself a favor and research 1400+ years of Muslim history to see if anything remotely close to this bunch ever existed. Heck, look back to 70s and see what what was the resistance ideology du jour. Hint: it was not Islam.)
- colordrops 10y ago
  If you do a little reading besides the WSJ and NYT, it's obvious that the CIA has been propping up ISIS. Some articles on Glen Greenwald's publication The Intercept goes into to this in a bit of detail. It's amazing to me how few people understand this.
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]
  - colordrops 10y ago
    Anyone want to comment on why this is being downvoted?
    - mwfunk 10y ago
      Short answer: because it's absurd. People don't have to explain downvotes for conspiracy theories based on peoples' gut feelings/fears/paranoia regarding what's really going on below the visible surface of world events. Long answer: if you said you had a fear that there might be a conspiracy but didn't have anything other than circumstantial evidence and intuition to back it up, that'd be one thing. But you didn't. You said it was "obvious" that that's what's going on. Lots of people base lots of beliefs (and subsequent actions) on their gut feelings about things that are opaque to them, but if you don't take your own gut feelings with a grain of salt then it's actually introducing noise into the collective global conversation about this stuff. You end up with everyone arguing about hypotheticals that neither side can prove or disprove rather than actionable intelligence. Much better to seek small, messy, unsatisfying truths and fight for them, than to intuit exciting, reductive narratives with truthiness derived from their explanatory power. The former can lead to people making positive differences in the world, while the latter usually just leads to lots of angry, endless, unresolvable arguments on Reddit or at family gatherings.
      - colordrops 10y ago
        You probably believed Bush's absurd conspiracy theory that Iraq had something to do with 9/11. And you are probably ignoring the news in the (mainstream, non-conspiratorial) press that Saudi Arabia actually supported 9/11 and is supporting ISIS. And you probably ignore the obvious alignment of interests between Russian, Iran (shiite), and Syria's Assad (shiite), and the alignment of their enemies, the US, Saudi Arabia (sunni), and ISIS (sunni). The US isn't even being that secretive about their support of "rebels" in Syria, but most people just read headlines. But no, it's another nut job conspiracy theory, just like all those nuts who thought Bush lying.
    - DanBC 10y ago
      Because it sounds like bullshit. If you'd supported it with some credible references some people might have corrected the downvotes.
      - colordrops 10y ago
        https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/03/us-isis-syria-iraq https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/03/us-isi... http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/05/newly-declassified-u-s-government-documents-the-west-supported-the-creation-of-isis.html http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/05/newly-declassified-u-... https://www.quora.com/Is-it-true-that-the-US-is-funding-ISIS https://www.quora.com/Is-it-true-that-the-US-is-funding-ISIS
      - colordrops 10y ago
        If you read the links, it becomes pretty obvious: Russia + Iran (Shiite) + Syria's Assad (Shiite) VS US (and Europe) + Saudi Arabia (Sunni) + ISIS (Sunni) How are these connections not simple and obvious? Did you also believe that Iraq had something to do with 9/11? How does everyone forget so easily how big the lies are that are told by the US government in order to prosecute war?
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]
  - LoSboccacc 10y ago
    it is more like a series of unfortunate events and decisions, here is a lite overview http://www.cracked.com/personal-experiences-1780-we-built-their-death-squads-isiss-bizarre-origin-story.html http://www.cracked.com/personal-experiences-1780-we-built-th...
dogma1138 10y ago
You are betting on the people who joined ISIS in the first place to make rational decisions? These organizations never die, they hibernate or morph into something else. If they'll lose in Iraq and Syria they'll go to fight in Africa or Afghanistan, there is never a shortage of world conflicts that would lure these types of people.
- jrs235 10y ago
  We must remember though that humans are not rational beings. We are rationalizing beings.
jeffdavis 10y ago
I don't think that's the way radical groups like this work. Promises are edited from the record, "facts" go unchecked, and followers are already so emotionly invested they are incapable of changing their minds any more.
- tenpies 10y ago
  Scary how if you replace "radical groups" with "US elections", most of the statement still stands.
  - geodel 10y ago
    I read Animal Farm and see world was always same. It is just (social?) media amplification that makes certain cause just or unjust.
- jrs235 10y ago
  As I mentioned else where. Many will fall for the sunk cost fallacy and instead of giving up or realizing that God wasn't on their side they will rationalize that away and continue to the point of "God wants my all" and turn to suicide bombing.
mc32 10y ago
I think you can find a response to these adverse realities from "doomsday" cults. Reinterpret, reset, etc.
gglitch 10y ago
The cynic might suppose that for most people of any kind, that kind of logically-consistent self-scrutiny, combined with personal accountability, is too much to ask. But to me that feels too pat, too binary. Religion feels to me like one of the large set of psychological systems that are complex enough to enable all kinds of strategic patterns to emerge when it comes to processing the causal background to real events. Some events really do seem like they'd be hard to fit into the patterns though, and yeah, I also wonder about the psychology of people who have to adapt to them. I bet you'd find similar backtracking among people who fervently believe in failed apocalypses, for example.
- internaut 10y ago
  > I bet you'd find similar backtracking among people who fervently believe in failed apocalypses, for example. I used to be a JW, I can tell you they pulled the 'sell everything and wait for the end' stunt in the 70s. They are still around even though a large number 'fell away' due to the prophesy not being filled. What happens is the old literature is adapted or ignored. Then the new line is repeated so many times the followers eventually believe it was the old one and there is no inconsistency. If you've ever played the game where you say a word dozens/hundreds of times until it loses its meaning then you have an inkling of how that could occur with contradictory information. It helps that they don't revisit their old books much or they'd get some surprises. Their organization has 'gone digital' and become much more centralized as they continue to go into the red, which makes analysis more difficult. Presently they are gearing up for their new apocalypse. They have been making some fairly weird videos involving them escaping to shelters/basements with a survivalist vibe about it. There's a video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wackkicmf4k https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wackkicmf4k Obviously they are larping. They have no clue how you'd practically survive an actual conflict. I see my relatives packing go-bags but they have no idea what they are doing. The instructions they're getting are becoming weirder like they did with the now forgotten aluminum saucepan controversy. Well, at least they're not ISIS!
  - tamana 10y ago
    Give some credit to folks who believe judgment will come from God and don't claim the ability to forcibly hasten its coming
vinceguidry 10y ago
My guess is that the generals at the top are well-aware of political and military realities and the downfall of the caliphate was planned for. Sure, some of the faithful will fall away disillusioned, but not all of them.
- tamana 10y ago
  Are they? This isn't a modern military. It's probably filled with plenty of bad intel, and backstabbing misinformation.
iambateman 10y ago
The Confederate States of America ended 151 years ago and there remain no shortage of people willing to pick up that flag. Hatred doesn't mix well with rational thought.
- ratsmack 10y ago
  This is a very poor comparison.
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]
- whatshisface 10y ago
  Really, those are two different things entirely. The soldiers who fought for the south were people's family members, and honoring their memory had evolved into a statement against the cultural erosion that many in the south are upset by. It's possible that plantation owners started the war to protect their slave holdings, but I assure you that no poor unlanded Confederate rifleman died thinking about it.
  - tamana 10y ago
    So... we honor the memory of poor Southerners who were exploited as soldiers by... flying the flag of their exploiters who sent them to die in vain fighting for an even worse oppression?
    - deleted 10y ago
      [deleted]
    - back_beyond 10y ago
      One perspective is that these Southerners died defending their home against a foreign invasion. Despite being vastly outmanned and outgunned, they withstood five bitter years. Some view honor in that.
bbctol 10y ago
Well, there are other religions that have carried on after their promised messiah died by quickly reinterpreting their texts. I know it sounds like I'm trying to be edgy, but seriously: there's good precedent for religious fanatics being undeterred by a prophecy being unfulfilled.
jrs235 10y ago
>How could their followers justify continued obedience? Cognitive dissonance is a powerful thing and they will just rationalize their way to finding a reason to continue. Most will suffer from the sunk cost fallacy and probably resort to the last thing they can think of... suicide bombing. Quite scary when you think about it. EDIT: Upon further thought. I suppose many might welcome the end as they no longer have to constantly worry about dying... many having started fighting not fully knowing how brutal commanders would be and the amount of obedience demanded and because many joined because they were merely being opportunistic and looking for wealth/income.

by dicroce 10y ago

I believe I read somewhere that if the caliphate falls it means that they never truly had the mandate of heaven. How could their followers justify continued obedience?

eternalban 10y ago

I guess we finally have proof that the mandate of the deep state and CIA isn't enough to start up a bogus "khalifate", no matter how many weapons drops end up in "enemy" hands. (If you entertain these stories about ISIS or whatever name they call it these days do yourself a favor and research 1400+ years of Muslim history to see if anything remotely close to this bunch ever existed. Heck, look back to 70s and see what what was the resistance ideology du jour. Hint: it was not Islam.)

colordrops 10y ago
If you do a little reading besides the WSJ and NYT, it's obvious that the CIA has been propping up ISIS. Some articles on Glen Greenwald's publication The Intercept goes into to this in a bit of detail. It's amazing to me how few people understand this.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- colordrops 10y ago
  Anyone want to comment on why this is being downvoted?
  - mwfunk 10y ago
    Short answer: because it's absurd. People don't have to explain downvotes for conspiracy theories based on peoples' gut feelings/fears/paranoia regarding what's really going on below the visible surface of world events. Long answer: if you said you had a fear that there might be a conspiracy but didn't have anything other than circumstantial evidence and intuition to back it up, that'd be one thing. But you didn't. You said it was "obvious" that that's what's going on. Lots of people base lots of beliefs (and subsequent actions) on their gut feelings about things that are opaque to them, but if you don't take your own gut feelings with a grain of salt then it's actually introducing noise into the collective global conversation about this stuff. You end up with everyone arguing about hypotheticals that neither side can prove or disprove rather than actionable intelligence. Much better to seek small, messy, unsatisfying truths and fight for them, than to intuit exciting, reductive narratives with truthiness derived from their explanatory power. The former can lead to people making positive differences in the world, while the latter usually just leads to lots of angry, endless, unresolvable arguments on Reddit or at family gatherings.
    - colordrops 10y ago
      You probably believed Bush's absurd conspiracy theory that Iraq had something to do with 9/11. And you are probably ignoring the news in the (mainstream, non-conspiratorial) press that Saudi Arabia actually supported 9/11 and is supporting ISIS. And you probably ignore the obvious alignment of interests between Russian, Iran (shiite), and Syria's Assad (shiite), and the alignment of their enemies, the US, Saudi Arabia (sunni), and ISIS (sunni). The US isn't even being that secretive about their support of "rebels" in Syria, but most people just read headlines. But no, it's another nut job conspiracy theory, just like all those nuts who thought Bush lying.
  - DanBC 10y ago
    Because it sounds like bullshit. If you'd supported it with some credible references some people might have corrected the downvotes.
    - colordrops 10y ago
      https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/03/us-isis-syria-iraq https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/03/us-isi... http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/05/newly-declassified-u-s-government-documents-the-west-supported-the-creation-of-isis.html http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/05/newly-declassified-u-... https://www.quora.com/Is-it-true-that-the-US-is-funding-ISIS https://www.quora.com/Is-it-true-that-the-US-is-funding-ISIS
    - colordrops 10y ago
      If you read the links, it becomes pretty obvious: Russia + Iran (Shiite) + Syria's Assad (Shiite) VS US (and Europe) + Saudi Arabia (Sunni) + ISIS (Sunni) How are these connections not simple and obvious? Did you also believe that Iraq had something to do with 9/11? How does everyone forget so easily how big the lies are that are told by the US government in order to prosecute war?
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- LoSboccacc 10y ago
  it is more like a series of unfortunate events and decisions, here is a lite overview http://www.cracked.com/personal-experiences-1780-we-built-their-death-squads-isiss-bizarre-origin-story.html http://www.cracked.com/personal-experiences-1780-we-built-th...

dogma1138 10y ago

You are betting on the people who joined ISIS in the first place to make rational decisions? These organizations never die, they hibernate or morph into something else. If they'll lose in Iraq and Syria they'll go to fight in Africa or Afghanistan, there is never a shortage of world conflicts that would lure these types of people.

jrs235 10y ago
We must remember though that humans are not rational beings. We are rationalizing beings.

jeffdavis 10y ago

I don't think that's the way radical groups like this work. Promises are edited from the record, "facts" go unchecked, and followers are already so emotionly invested they are incapable of changing their minds any more.

tenpies 10y ago
Scary how if you replace "radical groups" with "US elections", most of the statement still stands.
- geodel 10y ago
  I read Animal Farm and see world was always same. It is just (social?) media amplification that makes certain cause just or unjust.
jrs235 10y ago
As I mentioned else where. Many will fall for the sunk cost fallacy and instead of giving up or realizing that God wasn't on their side they will rationalize that away and continue to the point of "God wants my all" and turn to suicide bombing.

mc32 10y ago

I think you can find a response to these adverse realities from "doomsday" cults. Reinterpret, reset, etc.

gglitch 10y ago

The cynic might suppose that for most people of any kind, that kind of logically-consistent self-scrutiny, combined with personal accountability, is too much to ask. But to me that feels too pat, too binary. Religion feels to me like one of the large set of psychological systems that are complex enough to enable all kinds of strategic patterns to emerge when it comes to processing the causal background to real events. Some events really do seem like they'd be hard to fit into the patterns though, and yeah, I also wonder about the psychology of people who have to adapt to them. I bet you'd find similar backtracking among people who fervently believe in failed apocalypses, for example.

internaut 10y ago
> I bet you'd find similar backtracking among people who fervently believe in failed apocalypses, for example. I used to be a JW, I can tell you they pulled the 'sell everything and wait for the end' stunt in the 70s. They are still around even though a large number 'fell away' due to the prophesy not being filled. What happens is the old literature is adapted or ignored. Then the new line is repeated so many times the followers eventually believe it was the old one and there is no inconsistency. If you've ever played the game where you say a word dozens/hundreds of times until it loses its meaning then you have an inkling of how that could occur with contradictory information. It helps that they don't revisit their old books much or they'd get some surprises. Their organization has 'gone digital' and become much more centralized as they continue to go into the red, which makes analysis more difficult. Presently they are gearing up for their new apocalypse. They have been making some fairly weird videos involving them escaping to shelters/basements with a survivalist vibe about it. There's a video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wackkicmf4k https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wackkicmf4k Obviously they are larping. They have no clue how you'd practically survive an actual conflict. I see my relatives packing go-bags but they have no idea what they are doing. The instructions they're getting are becoming weirder like they did with the now forgotten aluminum saucepan controversy. Well, at least they're not ISIS!
- tamana 10y ago
  Give some credit to folks who believe judgment will come from God and don't claim the ability to forcibly hasten its coming

vinceguidry 10y ago

My guess is that the generals at the top are well-aware of political and military realities and the downfall of the caliphate was planned for. Sure, some of the faithful will fall away disillusioned, but not all of them.

tamana 10y ago
Are they? This isn't a modern military. It's probably filled with plenty of bad intel, and backstabbing misinformation.

iambateman 10y ago

The Confederate States of America ended 151 years ago and there remain no shortage of people willing to pick up that flag. Hatred doesn't mix well with rational thought.

ratsmack 10y ago
This is a very poor comparison.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
whatshisface 10y ago
Really, those are two different things entirely. The soldiers who fought for the south were people's family members, and honoring their memory had evolved into a statement against the cultural erosion that many in the south are upset by. It's possible that plantation owners started the war to protect their slave holdings, but I assure you that no poor unlanded Confederate rifleman died thinking about it.
- tamana 10y ago
  So... we honor the memory of poor Southerners who were exploited as soldiers by... flying the flag of their exploiters who sent them to die in vain fighting for an even worse oppression?
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]
  - back_beyond 10y ago
    One perspective is that these Southerners died defending their home against a foreign invasion. Despite being vastly outmanned and outgunned, they withstood five bitter years. Some view honor in that.

bbctol 10y ago

Well, there are other religions that have carried on after their promised messiah died by quickly reinterpreting their texts. I know it sounds like I'm trying to be edgy, but seriously: there's good precedent for religious fanatics being undeterred by a prophecy being unfulfilled.

jrs235 10y ago

>How could their followers justify continued obedience? Cognitive dissonance is a powerful thing and they will just rationalize their way to finding a reason to continue. Most will suffer from the sunk cost fallacy and probably resort to the last thing they can think of... suicide bombing. Quite scary when you think about it. EDIT: Upon further thought. I suppose many might welcome the end as they no longer have to constantly worry about dying... many having started fighting not fully knowing how brutal commanders would be and the amount of obedience demanded and because many joined because they were merely being opportunistic and looking for wealth/income.