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> Good question. It's not safer. I think it is. Given the number of Autopilot miles driven, you'd only expect one death so far, so that we have one doesn't rea

by phaemon 10y ago

> Good question. It's not safer. I think it is. Given the number of Autopilot miles driven, you'd only expect one death so far, so that we have one doesn't really tell us anything. However, injuries from car crashes are (fortunately!) much more common - roughly 60 times as likely. So you'd expect to have about 60 Autopilot incidents resulting in injury by now. I don't really keep up with Tesla news but, based on the reaction to this story (where the guy wasn't even injured), I'm going to assume the actual number of injuries is tiny. What do you think?

studentrob 10y ago
> What do you think? I think it's not safer based on existing data. Musk was pretty quick to tout that autopilot is safer over 100 million miles driven. It turns out his statistic was not as useful as it could have been. There was no mention of conditions in which autopilot is not likely to be engaged such as adverse weather or non-divided roads. Plus some deaths are from motorcycles, which, it seems, should somehow be excluded from the comparison. On top of that, it might make more sense to compare the Tesla models' safety records to cars in a similar pricing class. Comparing a Tesla to a beater from 1990 isn't so useful. So there are different degrees of comparison. Tesla's headline-ready numbers do not tell the full story. I don't feel badly about drawing different conclusions from the same data Tesla used in its response to the incident. I think they overlooked a few things. You're certainly free to intuit what you like. > I don't really keep up with Tesla news but, based on the reaction to this story (where the guy wasn't even injured), I'm going to assume the actual number of injuries is tiny. Tesla does not make this information available, so I don't think it is worth speculating. Effort would be better spent encouraging regulators to demand more detailed reports from companies that sell vehicles equipped with driver-assistance systems. Until all companies are required to report such information, Tesla is unlikely to do so. We can turn the screws on Tesla too, and I think they would be served by lobbying for tighter regulations to create a level and safe playing field for car companies and drivers alike, but I wouldn't count on them to spend much extra effort on holding themselves accountable in such a fashion. They're already having a tough time meeting their production demands, and Musk is still setting aggressive targets for complete autonomy that no other car company, including Google, is even close to. I think Musk has said full autonomy is 2 years out, whereas Google says it's between 3 and 30 years. Mobile Eye has a 5-10 year plan.
- dimino 10y ago
  It sounds like you're willing to speculate/entertain assumptions (e.g. regarding miles of "relatable" road usage) when it harms Tesla, but not when it might help them.
  - studentrob 10y ago
    Must every critical argument I make be balanced with something positive in order to demonstrate I'm not 100% against Tesla? Tesla definitely done great things. They're just not front and center in the news at the moment. I think it's best to look at the data or issues being discussed rather than some hidden motive. When I discuss politics, I don't just say "I'm voting for Billy", I try to say, "I like Billy's position on X because Y". Same thing here.
    - dimino 10y ago
      It's not about balance, it's about you willing to make guesses regarding the bad things Tesla has done, and not make guesses about the potential good things. This isn't a "let's give 50% time to the creationists" kind of thing, this is a "let's not stretch only one side of the truth" kind of thing. You said the equivalent of, "I'm voting for X because of my speculation about Y but I refuse to speculate about Z as it does not fit my current argument."
      - studentrob 10y ago
        > It's not about balance, it's about you willing to make guesses regarding the bad things Tesla has done, and not make guesses about the potential good things. You're being pedantic. I can wager guesses about good things too. They're just not pertinent to the focus of this article. Constructive criticism, for me, is a positive thing. > You said the equivalent of, "I'm voting for X because of my speculation about Y but I refuse to speculate about Z as it does not fit my current argument." I gave some raw analysis of the statistics drawn, further here [1], and all you can do is complain that I am somehow voting against Tesla. I never said any such thing. I said we should demand more transparency from them about accident data. I made some further speculation about Tesla's likelihood to do this on their own because it supports the argument that we should be part of this conversation. To expand on that, I think we should ask this of all companies that enable driver-assist. Currently, California requires monthly reports on accidents involving fully autonomous vehicles. I think it makes sense to do that for every car [2]. If you think Tesla and other companies will become more transparent and you don't feel the need to do anything, great, that's your prerogative. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12087603 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12087603 [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12084226 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12084226
neurotech1 10y ago
How many Tesla drivers have walked away, or had relatively minor injuries[0] from a crash that could easily be fatal other vehicles? [0] http://www.thewrap.com/jeffrey-katzenberg-in-life-threatening-tesla-accident-miracle-he-survives/ http://www.thewrap.com/jeffrey-katzenberg-in-life-threatenin...

by phaemon 10y ago

studentrob 10y ago

> What do you think? I think it's not safer based on existing data. Musk was pretty quick to tout that autopilot is safer over 100 million miles driven. It turns out his statistic was not as useful as it could have been. There was no mention of conditions in which autopilot is not likely to be engaged such as adverse weather or non-divided roads. Plus some deaths are from motorcycles, which, it seems, should somehow be excluded from the comparison. On top of that, it might make more sense to compare the Tesla models' safety records to cars in a similar pricing class. Comparing a Tesla to a beater from 1990 isn't so useful. So there are different degrees of comparison. Tesla's headline-ready numbers do not tell the full story. I don't feel badly about drawing different conclusions from the same data Tesla used in its response to the incident. I think they overlooked a few things. You're certainly free to intuit what you like. > I don't really keep up with Tesla news but, based on the reaction to this story (where the guy wasn't even injured), I'm going to assume the actual number of injuries is tiny. Tesla does not make this information available, so I don't think it is worth speculating. Effort would be better spent encouraging regulators to demand more detailed reports from companies that sell vehicles equipped with driver-assistance systems. Until all companies are required to report such information, Tesla is unlikely to do so. We can turn the screws on Tesla too, and I think they would be served by lobbying for tighter regulations to create a level and safe playing field for car companies and drivers alike, but I wouldn't count on them to spend much extra effort on holding themselves accountable in such a fashion. They're already having a tough time meeting their production demands, and Musk is still setting aggressive targets for complete autonomy that no other car company, including Google, is even close to. I think Musk has said full autonomy is 2 years out, whereas Google says it's between 3 and 30 years. Mobile Eye has a 5-10 year plan.

dimino 10y ago
It sounds like you're willing to speculate/entertain assumptions (e.g. regarding miles of "relatable" road usage) when it harms Tesla, but not when it might help them.
- studentrob 10y ago
  Must every critical argument I make be balanced with something positive in order to demonstrate I'm not 100% against Tesla? Tesla definitely done great things. They're just not front and center in the news at the moment. I think it's best to look at the data or issues being discussed rather than some hidden motive. When I discuss politics, I don't just say "I'm voting for Billy", I try to say, "I like Billy's position on X because Y". Same thing here.
  - dimino 10y ago
    It's not about balance, it's about you willing to make guesses regarding the bad things Tesla has done, and not make guesses about the potential good things. This isn't a "let's give 50% time to the creationists" kind of thing, this is a "let's not stretch only one side of the truth" kind of thing. You said the equivalent of, "I'm voting for X because of my speculation about Y but I refuse to speculate about Z as it does not fit my current argument."
    - studentrob 10y ago
      > It's not about balance, it's about you willing to make guesses regarding the bad things Tesla has done, and not make guesses about the potential good things. You're being pedantic. I can wager guesses about good things too. They're just not pertinent to the focus of this article. Constructive criticism, for me, is a positive thing. > You said the equivalent of, "I'm voting for X because of my speculation about Y but I refuse to speculate about Z as it does not fit my current argument." I gave some raw analysis of the statistics drawn, further here [1], and all you can do is complain that I am somehow voting against Tesla. I never said any such thing. I said we should demand more transparency from them about accident data. I made some further speculation about Tesla's likelihood to do this on their own because it supports the argument that we should be part of this conversation. To expand on that, I think we should ask this of all companies that enable driver-assist. Currently, California requires monthly reports on accidents involving fully autonomous vehicles. I think it makes sense to do that for every car [2]. If you think Tesla and other companies will become more transparent and you don't feel the need to do anything, great, that's your prerogative. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12087603 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12087603 [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12084226 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12084226

neurotech1 10y ago

How many Tesla drivers have walked away, or had relatively minor injuries[0] from a crash that could easily be fatal other vehicles? [0] http://www.thewrap.com/jeffrey-katzenberg-in-life-threatening-tesla-accident-miracle-he-survives/ http://www.thewrap.com/jeffrey-katzenberg-in-life-threatenin...