4 ms·

What the hell is happening in this comment thread? Do we not all realize that, per-mile-driven, Tesla's auto pilot is much safer than human driving? I thought

by dimino 10y ago

What the hell is happening in this comment thread? Do we not all realize that, per-mile-driven, Tesla's auto pilot is much safer than human driving? I thought we were prepared to deal with the inevitable crashes, but based on the chicken littles here, maybe I was wrong.

rhino369 10y ago
But is it safer than the BMW system that does the exact same thing? I also seriously doubt it's much safer than driving a normal car in the same situation. Musk threw out a bullshit comparison with general vehicle fatality stats. But Autopilot is used in a situation that's safer than average travel--highway driving in good weather. Most deaths happen at intersections--not highway.
studentrob 10y ago
> Do we not all realize that, per-mile-driven, Tesla's auto pilot is much safer than human driving? Good question. It's not safer. Tesla's quoted statistic of one death per 94 million miles driven in the US is not as useful as it could be. That includes motorcycle deaths and roads and conditions in which the Tesla AP is not likely to be engaged. When you limit it to divided roads, the rate is more like 1 death per 150 million miles driven [1], which makes the Tesla less safe than your average American vehicle, and that still includes motorcycles. [1] https://www.reddit.com/r/technology/comments/4sgxv1/while_tesla_appears_surprised_over_criticism_of/d59eazl https://www.reddit.com/r/technology/comments/4sgxv1/while_te...
- phaemon 10y ago
  > Good question. It's not safer. I think it is. Given the number of Autopilot miles driven, you'd only expect one death so far, so that we have one doesn't really tell us anything. However, injuries from car crashes are (fortunately!) much more common - roughly 60 times as likely. So you'd expect to have about 60 Autopilot incidents resulting in injury by now. I don't really keep up with Tesla news but, based on the reaction to this story (where the guy wasn't even injured), I'm going to assume the actual number of injuries is tiny. What do you think?
  - studentrob 10y ago
    > What do you think? I think it's not safer based on existing data. Musk was pretty quick to tout that autopilot is safer over 100 million miles driven. It turns out his statistic was not as useful as it could have been. There was no mention of conditions in which autopilot is not likely to be engaged such as adverse weather or non-divided roads. Plus some deaths are from motorcycles, which, it seems, should somehow be excluded from the comparison. On top of that, it might make more sense to compare the Tesla models' safety records to cars in a similar pricing class. Comparing a Tesla to a beater from 1990 isn't so useful. So there are different degrees of comparison. Tesla's headline-ready numbers do not tell the full story. I don't feel badly about drawing different conclusions from the same data Tesla used in its response to the incident. I think they overlooked a few things. You're certainly free to intuit what you like. > I don't really keep up with Tesla news but, based on the reaction to this story (where the guy wasn't even injured), I'm going to assume the actual number of injuries is tiny. Tesla does not make this information available, so I don't think it is worth speculating. Effort would be better spent encouraging regulators to demand more detailed reports from companies that sell vehicles equipped with driver-assistance systems. Until all companies are required to report such information, Tesla is unlikely to do so. We can turn the screws on Tesla too, and I think they would be served by lobbying for tighter regulations to create a level and safe playing field for car companies and drivers alike, but I wouldn't count on them to spend much extra effort on holding themselves accountable in such a fashion. They're already having a tough time meeting their production demands, and Musk is still setting aggressive targets for complete autonomy that no other car company, including Google, is even close to. I think Musk has said full autonomy is 2 years out, whereas Google says it's between 3 and 30 years. Mobile Eye has a 5-10 year plan.
    - dimino 10y ago
      It sounds like you're willing to speculate/entertain assumptions (e.g. regarding miles of "relatable" road usage) when it harms Tesla, but not when it might help them.
      - studentrob 10y ago

by dimino 10y ago

rhino369 10y ago

But is it safer than the BMW system that does the exact same thing? I also seriously doubt it's much safer than driving a normal car in the same situation. Musk threw out a bullshit comparison with general vehicle fatality stats. But Autopilot is used in a situation that's safer than average travel--highway driving in good weather. Most deaths happen at intersections--not highway.

studentrob 10y ago

> Do we not all realize that, per-mile-driven, Tesla's auto pilot is much safer than human driving? Good question. It's not safer. Tesla's quoted statistic of one death per 94 million miles driven in the US is not as useful as it could be. That includes motorcycle deaths and roads and conditions in which the Tesla AP is not likely to be engaged. When you limit it to divided roads, the rate is more like 1 death per 150 million miles driven [1], which makes the Tesla less safe than your average American vehicle, and that still includes motorcycles. [1] https://www.reddit.com/r/technology/comments/4sgxv1/while_tesla_appears_surprised_over_criticism_of/d59eazl https://www.reddit.com/r/technology/comments/4sgxv1/while_te...

phaemon 10y ago
> Good question. It's not safer. I think it is. Given the number of Autopilot miles driven, you'd only expect one death so far, so that we have one doesn't really tell us anything. However, injuries from car crashes are (fortunately!) much more common - roughly 60 times as likely. So you'd expect to have about 60 Autopilot incidents resulting in injury by now. I don't really keep up with Tesla news but, based on the reaction to this story (where the guy wasn't even injured), I'm going to assume the actual number of injuries is tiny. What do you think?
- studentrob 10y ago
  > What do you think? I think it's not safer based on existing data. Musk was pretty quick to tout that autopilot is safer over 100 million miles driven. It turns out his statistic was not as useful as it could have been. There was no mention of conditions in which autopilot is not likely to be engaged such as adverse weather or non-divided roads. Plus some deaths are from motorcycles, which, it seems, should somehow be excluded from the comparison. On top of that, it might make more sense to compare the Tesla models' safety records to cars in a similar pricing class. Comparing a Tesla to a beater from 1990 isn't so useful. So there are different degrees of comparison. Tesla's headline-ready numbers do not tell the full story. I don't feel badly about drawing different conclusions from the same data Tesla used in its response to the incident. I think they overlooked a few things. You're certainly free to intuit what you like. > I don't really keep up with Tesla news but, based on the reaction to this story (where the guy wasn't even injured), I'm going to assume the actual number of injuries is tiny. Tesla does not make this information available, so I don't think it is worth speculating. Effort would be better spent encouraging regulators to demand more detailed reports from companies that sell vehicles equipped with driver-assistance systems. Until all companies are required to report such information, Tesla is unlikely to do so. We can turn the screws on Tesla too, and I think they would be served by lobbying for tighter regulations to create a level and safe playing field for car companies and drivers alike, but I wouldn't count on them to spend much extra effort on holding themselves accountable in such a fashion. They're already having a tough time meeting their production demands, and Musk is still setting aggressive targets for complete autonomy that no other car company, including Google, is even close to. I think Musk has said full autonomy is 2 years out, whereas Google says it's between 3 and 30 years. Mobile Eye has a 5-10 year plan.
  - dimino 10y ago
    It sounds like you're willing to speculate/entertain assumptions (e.g. regarding miles of "relatable" road usage) when it harms Tesla, but not when it might help them.
    - studentrob 10y ago