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So politicians will stop asking "What does the EU think" and go back to asking "What do Germany, France, and the UK think, and are they in agreement"? The dist

So politicians will stop asking "What does the EU think" and go back to asking "What do Germany, France, and the UK think, and are they in agreement"? The distinction is less important than you think, because the second question gets at the heart of the issue and naturally follows the first. Unlike the US, The EU does not have a strong executive/legislative/judicial (and perhaps more-importantly, a shared language/national history) backbone that ties the member states together. Also, the UK is still the 5th largest economy in the world by GDP ($2.8T). It may be 1/7 the size of the US economy and 1/4 the size of the Chinese economy, but it's hardly going to be ignored.

piokuc 10y ago
UK is not 5th largest economy in the world anymore: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/france-britain-uk-world-s-fifth-largest-economy-brexit-eu-referendum-a7123761.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/france-britai...
- acid__ 10y ago
  1. The article clearly states that when calculating GDP, the yearly average exchange rates are used, not the spot rate, as was used for that sensationalist headline. 2. The pound is recovering, and has already climbed back up beyond the point when the calculation in the article was made. 3. 5th or 6th, honestly, what difference does it make? The point is that they're still a major player in the world economy.
vidarh 10y ago
I think it's terribly naive to think they'll stop to ask what the EU thinks. They'll keep asking that, and if the UK gets mentioned it will be as an afterthought. > Also, the UK is still the 5th largest economy in the world by GDP ($2.8T). But relatively speaking, it's position is weakening year by year, as it's seeing anaemic growth compared to a large number of other economies. More importantly, we're seeing the rise of more and more trading blocks, at a time when the UK has decided to stand outside. E.g. Africa is going to overtake the UK as a whole shortly. Hardly all that strange given we're talking about more countries than the EU. But ECOWAS - one of the regional pillars of the African Union - is on a trajectory to overtake the UK all on its own sometime in the next couple of decades, and with current growth it is likely more of them will. It is pretty much inconceivable that the UK will remain 5th over the next decade, and it's looking likely that the UK won't even remain in the top ten over the next two decades, unless something happens to massively increase UK growth.
- sremani 10y ago
  The real question is, do Eurocrats know what the EU thinks ? My honest guess is, No. We know what Germany thinks, France thinks and Italy thinks. The Supra-state was an interesting exercise, an experiment of sorts that demonstrated the contradictions within Europe are too wide. EU will die its slow death, Brexit is not the cause, its the catalyst.
  - AnonymousPlanet 10y ago
    I am very concerned that a Europe without the possibility of acting as one entity in the coming globalized world of big players like China and India will have much to say. How will we be able to deal with developments in the Middle East and Africa while the UK cowers away on its island and every one else does whatever they please? All this, while the US places its focus towards the pacific. Is mighty Britain going to stare down the Russians by itself? And I'm not talking about just the military. The EU sceptics may be smug now but the EU is not some selfserving idea. It's now more relevant than ever.
- roymurdock 10y ago
  >I think it's terribly naive to think they'll stop to ask what the EU thinks. They'll keep asking that, and if the UK gets mentioned it will be as an afterthought. You misunderstand my point. Even if, on the surface, they continue to ask what the "EU" thinks, they'll actually be asking (as they always have) what Merkel, Hollande, and (now) Theresa May think. Greece, Italy, Portugal, etc. don't have a say because they need to keep their heads down and continue to service their debt to the big 3 EU leaders, who clearly don't agree on much, even at the global level (war, trade agreements, etc). Have you been to Africa? Have you seen the level of infrastructure (education, access to electricity and clean water) relative to violence (civil wars), corruption, and pillaging of resources (western countries, China) that continues to take place across even the most developed African nations? The UK may not even exit the EU at the end of the day [1]. It's much too early to make such dire predictions for the future of UK growth. I prefer the simple or "naive" view that things will not change much. [1] A referendum in the UK is not binding on the government of the day; it is advisory. The UK has a government with a slender majority (implying it will be tricky to ram things through parliament), it is looking for a new prime minister (and, possibly, a new leader of the opposition), the referendum result was close (the country is split) and no one seems certain who has the power to get the ball rolling by triggering the “infamous” Article 50.

piokuc 10y ago

UK is not 5th largest economy in the world anymore: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/france-britain-uk-world-s-fifth-largest-economy-brexit-eu-referendum-a7123761.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/france-britai...

acid__ 10y ago
1. The article clearly states that when calculating GDP, the yearly average exchange rates are used, not the spot rate, as was used for that sensationalist headline. 2. The pound is recovering, and has already climbed back up beyond the point when the calculation in the article was made. 3. 5th or 6th, honestly, what difference does it make? The point is that they're still a major player in the world economy.

vidarh 10y ago

I think it's terribly naive to think they'll stop to ask what the EU thinks. They'll keep asking that, and if the UK gets mentioned it will be as an afterthought. > Also, the UK is still the 5th largest economy in the world by GDP ($2.8T). But relatively speaking, it's position is weakening year by year, as it's seeing anaemic growth compared to a large number of other economies. More importantly, we're seeing the rise of more and more trading blocks, at a time when the UK has decided to stand outside. E.g. Africa is going to overtake the UK as a whole shortly. Hardly all that strange given we're talking about more countries than the EU. But ECOWAS - one of the regional pillars of the African Union - is on a trajectory to overtake the UK all on its own sometime in the next couple of decades, and with current growth it is likely more of them will. It is pretty much inconceivable that the UK will remain 5th over the next decade, and it's looking likely that the UK won't even remain in the top ten over the next two decades, unless something happens to massively increase UK growth.

sremani 10y ago
The real question is, do Eurocrats know what the EU thinks ? My honest guess is, No. We know what Germany thinks, France thinks and Italy thinks. The Supra-state was an interesting exercise, an experiment of sorts that demonstrated the contradictions within Europe are too wide. EU will die its slow death, Brexit is not the cause, its the catalyst.
- AnonymousPlanet 10y ago
  I am very concerned that a Europe without the possibility of acting as one entity in the coming globalized world of big players like China and India will have much to say. How will we be able to deal with developments in the Middle East and Africa while the UK cowers away on its island and every one else does whatever they please? All this, while the US places its focus towards the pacific. Is mighty Britain going to stare down the Russians by itself? And I'm not talking about just the military. The EU sceptics may be smug now but the EU is not some selfserving idea. It's now more relevant than ever.
roymurdock 10y ago
>I think it's terribly naive to think they'll stop to ask what the EU thinks. They'll keep asking that, and if the UK gets mentioned it will be as an afterthought. You misunderstand my point. Even if, on the surface, they continue to ask what the "EU" thinks, they'll actually be asking (as they always have) what Merkel, Hollande, and (now) Theresa May think. Greece, Italy, Portugal, etc. don't have a say because they need to keep their heads down and continue to service their debt to the big 3 EU leaders, who clearly don't agree on much, even at the global level (war, trade agreements, etc). Have you been to Africa? Have you seen the level of infrastructure (education, access to electricity and clean water) relative to violence (civil wars), corruption, and pillaging of resources (western countries, China) that continues to take place across even the most developed African nations? The UK may not even exit the EU at the end of the day [1]. It's much too early to make such dire predictions for the future of UK growth. I prefer the simple or "naive" view that things will not change much. [1] A referendum in the UK is not binding on the government of the day; it is advisory. The UK has a government with a slender majority (implying it will be tricky to ram things through parliament), it is looking for a new prime minister (and, possibly, a new leader of the opposition), the referendum result was close (the country is split) and no one seems certain who has the power to get the ball rolling by triggering the “infamous” Article 50.