9 ms·

The next steps will actually be France will give up its seat and the EU will take it up. The UK was also going to give it up (alongside its WTO seat) which was

The next steps will actually be France will give up its seat and the EU will take it up. The UK was also going to give it up (alongside its WTO seat) which was what drove Cameron's 'ever closer union' clause.

marcoperaza 10y ago
I think the only "next steps" for the EU is a frantic attempt to not crumble. The National Front and Alternative for Germany are gaining fast.
- Xylakant 10y ago
  The AFD actually lost a few percent in the last polls.
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]
- vidarh 10y ago
  The latest polls have shown dramatic drops in anti-EU sentiments after the Brexit poll. If those numbers hold up, on the contrary Brexit may lead to a gear-shift towards more rapid integration of the rest of the EU.
  - marcoperaza 10y ago
    The massive fear mongering campaign by pro-EU forces will blow up in their face when the UK continues to do phenomenally well past the New Year. The people don't like being manipulated.
    - dragonwriter 10y ago
      > The massive fear mongering campaign by pro-EU forces will blow up in their face when the UK continues to do phenomenally well past the New Year. How? Seems to me most of the predicted bad consequences were tied to leaving the EU, which (barring some mutual agreement with the EU on an alternate timetable) happens two years after Article 50 is invoked, which it has not yet been. Why would the UK continuing to do well while it is still in the EU discredit any of the predictions of problems stemming from leaving the EU?
      - marcoperaza 10y ago
        Do you think the restructuring will happen overnight? Don't you think markets take into account expected future outcomes? The Brexit crash was the beginning. The media told everyone to panic, so everyone sold. Then people realized how irrational that was. Personally, I'm hoping for more liberal-media driven sell offs. They're great opportunities to invest. The future of the British economy is strong: an educated populace, competitive companies, and a pro-business government. They're going to get a great trade deal with America. They're going to do better than ever before having thrown off the beaurocrats in Brussels. In response to dragonwriter below (I'm rate-limited): In two years time is when the tariffs would kick in overnight in the absence of a deal. No company is stupid enough to wait that long to adjust their operations.
        dragonwriter 10y ago
        > Do you think the restructuring will happen overnight? No, so actual consequences of leaving will take significant time to be clear after the exit, not be immediately apparent the day Britain finally leaves the EU. (Which rather reinforces the point that they won't be clear long before Britain leaves the EU.) > Don't you think markets take into account expected future outcomes? Yes, but that's just another set of predictions, not actual counterevidence to any conflicting set of predictions.
    - SideburnsOfDoom 10y ago
      > when the UK continues to do phenomenally well So, in your view, the UK is doing " phenomenally well" right now? I mean I have read other opinions, including "deep political, social, democratic and economic crisis" and "value of the pound plunges". If the EU is trying to convince the remaining member states that "leaving is terrible, you should remain", then it's absolutely working: http://www.politico.eu/article/support-for-angela-merkel-rises-after-brexit-poll-eu-referendum-germany/ http://www.politico.eu/article/support-for-angela-merkel-ris... https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/support-for-eu-membership-is-on-the-rise-in-several-countrie https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/support-for-eu-memb...
      - marcoperaza 10y ago
        They're in better shape than almost all of Europe. Germany being the main exception. And as for today vs a month ago, what's the evidence for that? I see them in a very strong position. The anti-business Labour Party is doing poorly in the polls, and the Conservatives have quickly coalesced around a new leader. The FTSE100 and FTSE250 are doing fine. There's every reason to believe that both Hillary (judging by her policies over time) and Trump (by explicit statement) are eager to sign a great deal with the UK. The future is bright for Britain.
        SideburnsOfDoom 10y ago
        > They're in better shape than almost all of Europe. But not in very good shape at all compared to say, the UK a month ago.
        marcoperaza 10y ago
        Hey, I added my second paragraph after you responded. I was rate-limited by HackerNews, so I couldn't reply to you directly. I usually explicitly call it out when I'm doing that, but I forgot to this time. This makes your post look quite daft, which is not fair. Sorry about that.
        10y ago
  - endeavour 10y ago
    If.
  - 627467 10y ago
    Many feared (and fear) Brexit for it's domino effect against european integration, but recently I'm seeing a silver-lining: EU-ropeans have to stop being complacent and take of euro-cracy for granted because they now know an exit CAN happen, and protest votes (even if only tangentially related to the issues at hand) have irreversible consequences. So, I for one see the Brexit (the process, not the outcome) as positive to European democracy. The process will (and should) be long and hard to reach a fair outcome to both Britain and EU and voters will learn from this. The EU is messy by design, despite its obvious democratic-deficits which needs to be tackled by those who believe in european integration. I'd rather have neighbours settle their issues and common goals in a messy, frustrating forum then in the good-old battle-field (military or economic).
justin66 10y ago
Why would any nation give up a permanent security council seat?
dragonwriter 10y ago
> The next steps will actually be France will give up its seat and the EU will take it up. [citation needed]

marcoperaza 10y ago

I think the only "next steps" for the EU is a frantic attempt to not crumble. The National Front and Alternative for Germany are gaining fast.

Xylakant 10y ago
The AFD actually lost a few percent in the last polls.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
vidarh 10y ago
The latest polls have shown dramatic drops in anti-EU sentiments after the Brexit poll. If those numbers hold up, on the contrary Brexit may lead to a gear-shift towards more rapid integration of the rest of the EU.
- marcoperaza 10y ago
  The massive fear mongering campaign by pro-EU forces will blow up in their face when the UK continues to do phenomenally well past the New Year. The people don't like being manipulated.
  - dragonwriter 10y ago
    > The massive fear mongering campaign by pro-EU forces will blow up in their face when the UK continues to do phenomenally well past the New Year. How? Seems to me most of the predicted bad consequences were tied to leaving the EU, which (barring some mutual agreement with the EU on an alternate timetable) happens two years after Article 50 is invoked, which it has not yet been. Why would the UK continuing to do well while it is still in the EU discredit any of the predictions of problems stemming from leaving the EU?
    - marcoperaza 10y ago
      Do you think the restructuring will happen overnight? Don't you think markets take into account expected future outcomes? The Brexit crash was the beginning. The media told everyone to panic, so everyone sold. Then people realized how irrational that was. Personally, I'm hoping for more liberal-media driven sell offs. They're great opportunities to invest. The future of the British economy is strong: an educated populace, competitive companies, and a pro-business government. They're going to get a great trade deal with America. They're going to do better than ever before having thrown off the beaurocrats in Brussels. In response to dragonwriter below (I'm rate-limited): In two years time is when the tariffs would kick in overnight in the absence of a deal. No company is stupid enough to wait that long to adjust their operations.
      - dragonwriter 10y ago
        > Do you think the restructuring will happen overnight? No, so actual consequences of leaving will take significant time to be clear after the exit, not be immediately apparent the day Britain finally leaves the EU. (Which rather reinforces the point that they won't be clear long before Britain leaves the EU.) > Don't you think markets take into account expected future outcomes? Yes, but that's just another set of predictions, not actual counterevidence to any conflicting set of predictions.
  - SideburnsOfDoom 10y ago
    > when the UK continues to do phenomenally well So, in your view, the UK is doing " phenomenally well" right now? I mean I have read other opinions, including "deep political, social, democratic and economic crisis" and "value of the pound plunges". If the EU is trying to convince the remaining member states that "leaving is terrible, you should remain", then it's absolutely working: http://www.politico.eu/article/support-for-angela-merkel-rises-after-brexit-poll-eu-referendum-germany/ http://www.politico.eu/article/support-for-angela-merkel-ris... https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/support-for-eu-membership-is-on-the-rise-in-several-countrie https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/support-for-eu-memb...
    - marcoperaza 10y ago
      They're in better shape than almost all of Europe. Germany being the main exception. And as for today vs a month ago, what's the evidence for that? I see them in a very strong position. The anti-business Labour Party is doing poorly in the polls, and the Conservatives have quickly coalesced around a new leader. The FTSE100 and FTSE250 are doing fine. There's every reason to believe that both Hillary (judging by her policies over time) and Trump (by explicit statement) are eager to sign a great deal with the UK. The future is bright for Britain.
      - SideburnsOfDoom 10y ago
        > They're in better shape than almost all of Europe. But not in very good shape at all compared to say, the UK a month ago.
        marcoperaza 10y ago
        Hey, I added my second paragraph after you responded. I was rate-limited by HackerNews, so I couldn't reply to you directly. I usually explicitly call it out when I'm doing that, but I forgot to this time. This makes your post look quite daft, which is not fair. Sorry about that.
        10y ago
- endeavour 10y ago
  If.
- 627467 10y ago
  Many feared (and fear) Brexit for it's domino effect against european integration, but recently I'm seeing a silver-lining: EU-ropeans have to stop being complacent and take of euro-cracy for granted because they now know an exit CAN happen, and protest votes (even if only tangentially related to the issues at hand) have irreversible consequences. So, I for one see the Brexit (the process, not the outcome) as positive to European democracy. The process will (and should) be long and hard to reach a fair outcome to both Britain and EU and voters will learn from this. The EU is messy by design, despite its obvious democratic-deficits which needs to be tackled by those who believe in european integration. I'd rather have neighbours settle their issues and common goals in a messy, frustrating forum then in the good-old battle-field (military or economic).

justin66 10y ago

Why would any nation give up a permanent security council seat?

dragonwriter 10y ago

> The next steps will actually be France will give up its seat and the EU will take it up. [citation needed]