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I talked to a senior diplomat recently. He said that when talking to diplomats from China, Russia, the US in the beginning of his career some 30 years ago, nobo
by flexie 10y ago
I talked to a senior diplomat recently. He said that when talking to diplomats from China, Russia, the US in the beginning of his career some 30 years ago, nobody asked about the EU opinion on issues. In the last 10 years, however, he never heard "what does Britain or France or Germany think about XYZ" but only "What does the EU think".
What some leavers don't realise is that the entire world had gotten used to dealing with the EU as a whole and that the world probably doesn't care that much about what Britain (or England/Wales) thinks about tariffs, terrorism, refugees, wars, human rights, etc.
Britain will have to follow the EU on many issues if it wants access to the common market.
Britain is going from having a very strong voice in a very powerful organisation that the world has to deal with to being a rather small country the world can largely ignore.
- justin66 10y agoSince the UK and France are permanent U.N. security council members, that sounds rather hyperbolic.
- neximo64 10y agoThe next steps will actually be France will give up its seat and the EU will take it up. The UK was also going to give it up (alongside its WTO seat) which was what drove Cameron's 'ever closer union' clause.
- marcoperaza 10y agoI think the only "next steps" for the EU is a frantic attempt to not crumble. The National Front and Alternative for Germany are gaining fast.
- Xylakant 10y agoThe AFD actually lost a few percent in the last polls.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- vidarh 10y agoThe latest polls have shown dramatic drops in anti-EU sentiments after the Brexit poll. If those numbers hold up, on the contrary Brexit may lead to a gear-shift towards more rapid integration of the rest of the EU.
- marcoperaza 10y agoThe massive fear mongering campaign by pro-EU forces will blow up in their face when the UK continues to do phenomenally well past the New Year. The people don't like being manipulated.
- dragonwriter 10y ago> The massive fear mongering campaign by pro-EU forces will blow up in their face when the UK continues to do phenomenally well past the New Year. How? Seems to me most of the predicted bad consequences were tied to leaving the EU, which (barring some mutual agreement with the EU on an alternate timetable) happens two years after Article 50 is invoked, which it has not yet been. Why would the UK continuing to do well while it is still in the EU discredit any of the predictions of problems stemming from leaving the EU?
- marcoperaza 10y agoDo you think the restructuring will happen overnight? Don't you think markets take into account expected future outcomes? The Brexit crash was the beginning. The media told everyone to panic, so everyone sold. Then people realized how irrational that was. Personally, I'm hoping for more liberal-media driven sell offs. They're great opportunities to invest. The future of the British economy is strong: an educated populace, competitive companies, and a pro-business government. They're going to get a great trade deal with America. They're going to do better than ever before having thrown off the beaurocrats in Brussels. In response to dragonwriter below (I'm rate-limited): In two years time is when the tariffs would kick in overnight in the absence of a deal. No company is stupid enough to wait that long to adjust their operations.
- justin66 10y agoWhy would any nation give up a permanent security council seat?
- dragonwriter 10y ago> The next steps will actually be France will give up its seat and the EU will take it up. [citation needed]
- roymurdock 10y agoSo politicians will stop asking "What does the EU think" and go back to asking "What do Germany, France, and the UK think, and are they in agreement"? The distinction is less important than you think, because the second question gets at the heart of the issue and naturally follows the first. Unlike the US, The EU does not have a strong executive/legislative/judicial (and perhaps more-importantly, a shared language/national history) backbone that ties the member states together. Also, the UK is still the 5th largest economy in the world by GDP ($2.8T). It may be 1/7 the size of the US economy and 1/4 the size of the Chinese economy, but it's hardly going to be ignored.
- piokuc 10y agoUK is not 5th largest economy in the world anymore: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/france-britain-uk-world-s-fifth-largest-economy-brexit-eu-referendum-a7123761.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/france-britai...
- acid__ 10y ago1. The article clearly states that when calculating GDP, the yearly average exchange rates are used, not the spot rate, as was used for that sensationalist headline. 2. The pound is recovering, and has already climbed back up beyond the point when the calculation in the article was made. 3. 5th or 6th, honestly, what difference does it make? The point is that they're still a major player in the world economy.
- vidarh 10y agoI think it's terribly naive to think they'll stop to ask what the EU thinks. They'll keep asking that, and if the UK gets mentioned it will be as an afterthought. > Also, the UK is still the 5th largest economy in the world by GDP ($2.8T). But relatively speaking, it's position is weakening year by year, as it's seeing anaemic growth compared to a large number of other economies. More importantly, we're seeing the rise of more and more trading blocks, at a time when the UK has decided to stand outside. E.g. Africa is going to overtake the UK as a whole shortly. Hardly all that strange given we're talking about more countries than the EU. But ECOWAS - one of the regional pillars of the African Union - is on a trajectory to overtake the UK all on its own sometime in the next couple of decades, and with current growth it is likely more of them will. It is pretty much inconceivable that the UK will remain 5th over the next decade, and it's looking likely that the UK won't even remain in the top ten over the next two decades, unless something happens to massively increase UK growth.
- bpyne 10y agoI know little of Britain's political system. If Article 50 isn't being invoked until the end of the year, can Britain have another national vote on Brexit before then?
- monk_e_boy 10y agoTechnically yes. But I imagine that if they did everyone would be incensed and vote leave - to send a message. Whoever was in power at the time would be hoisted out in short order.
- genericpseudo 10y agoThere isn't going to be a Britain to have that vote. Scotland is leaving and the Brexit vote has reraised the spectre of terrorism in Northern Ireland.
- monk_e_boy 10y agoMaybe it's for the best. Why not let Scotland leave and make their own choices?
- sbmassey 10y agoDefinitely - an independent Scotland can get the chip off its shoulder, dust off the statues of Adam Smith and become a decent nation again, EU or no.
- dragonwriter 10y ago> But I imagine that if they did everyone would be incensed and vote leave - to send a message. I suspect not; for one, I think many of the 4+ million who signed the petition for a new referendum would probably vote "Remain".
- monk_e_boy 10y agoHow would you know if your vote would count for anything? If the people voted OUT and the government ignored it who's to say what other votes they will ignore. This has been debated to death, 99% of politicians agree that the vote is cast, let's move on.
- billpg 10y agoDo diplomats ever ask what Texas thinks?