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> Not only will the EU trade treaty need to be renegotiated, but so does the 50 other trade treaty with other nations - those treaties took a lot of time and ov
by junto 10y ago
> Not only will the EU trade treaty need to be renegotiated, but so does the 50 other trade treaty with other nations - those treaties took a lot of time and over 600+ negotiators to write, the UK only have 30 negotiators and about 2 years.
The UK hasn't done their own trade negotiations for over 30 years. The EU has. They haven't got the right people with the right experience to do this (yet). They need to hire the best they can, or outsource, in order to get things in place within the deadline once the UK parliament has voted the referendum result through and Article 50 is submitted.
It is going to be tight. I imagine that Whitehall is in a shit storm right now.
- sievebrain 10y agoThe EU has done an extremely bad job of signing trade deals. Much smaller countries have managed to do a much better job. I wouldn't look at the EU and say "we need the same setup" because the EU deliberately makes it hard for itself to sign deals by insisting that they try to satisfy 28 different countries simultaneously, who don't use the same language and which all have their own random domestic priorities to handle. I've actually read trade deals. The idea that there's only a handful of people in the world who can negotiate these things is ridiculous.
- wrong_variable 10y agoCould you provide some examples of countries striking better trade deals. Its also two things negotiators and knowing your strengths. The world's best negotiators wont be able help you very much if you do not have much to offer. Also I am skeptical of your assertion that anyone could write trade deals. It requires a very deep understanding of economics, international finance, geopolitics and a bunch of other topics - I would say being able to be a good trade negotiator is a lot more difficult than being a programmer and has far more profound consequences.
- endeavour 10y agoChile, Switzerland and Iceland all have free trade agreements with China. The EU doesn't.
- niccolop 10y agoWhat was the combined value of their trade into China in 2015?
- barrkel 10y agoIt's not in the EU's interest to have a free trade agreement with China; the US doesn't have one either. China pursues a mercantilist strategy in many respects. Take steel, for example: unrestricted trade with China would wreak havoc on Germany's steel industry, with potential knock-on effects further along the value chain - and there's no guarantee that China would keep steel prices low after predatory pricing.
- orf 10y agoAre you saying "any trade deal is better than no trade deal?". Just because the EU doesn't have one with China doesn't mean Switzerland's deal is better.... than a deal that doesn't exist.
- endeavour 10y agoNo, I was just giving some examples. If you follow your logic the UK needn't worry about not having a trade deal with the EU.
- AnonymousPlanet 10y ago> If you follow your logic the UK needn't worry about not having a trade deal with the EU. No, that does not follow.
- sievebrain 10y agoChile is a good example. More deals, better (more often including services) and earlier. Like I said, I've read trade deals. One I actually read almost from start to finish (the recent WTO deal on upgrading customs rules, I forgot the specific name). If Chile can sign trade deals with much bigger economic powers, much more quickly than the EU can, I see no reason why the UK would be unable to. Can you justify your assertion that trade negotiation is much harder than programming, or is that just a feeling?
- chimprich 10y agoWhat do you think is better about Chile's trade deals compared to, say, the UK's access to the common market? The UK's trade deal with the EU was surely more powerful than Chile's relationship to the US.
- vidarh 10y agoSigning deals fast is easy. Signing deals that cover everything is easy. It's useless to talk about this without analysing what actual benefits they get out of them.
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- DasIch 10y agoEven if the UK had the people to start trade negotiations right this second, they're not allowed to until they leave the EU and it takes years to negotiate such an agreement. It would take decades for the UK to catch up to the EU on trade agreements again, if they ever do.
- sievebrain 10y agoThe UK can negotiate deals before exit, just under EU law it can't sign them. However, why obey EU rules when you're about to leave? The only reason to do this would be to leave on good terms. But the EU sees Brexit as a betrayal that must be punished severely to try and scare other countries into not leaving. There are no "good terms" by their choice, not the UK's. So the UK should start immediately violating whatever EU rules are convenient to do so, once Article 50 is invoked.
- billpg 10y ago"Can we be sure you're going to stick to this trade agreement?" "Why would you think we wouldn't?" "You're breaking your treaty with the EU."
- sievebrain 10y agoWhen that treaty is merely "you cannot sign trade deals" I don't think people signing trade deals would care. That rule exists for the EU's benefit, not for the benefit of member states.
- wrong_variable 10y agoThats not the point of deals - merely convincing your prospective trade partner that a deal is unfair to you at that time is a hard sell. The UK signed the deal knowing the consequences of it, why would another country sign a trade deal with you knowing that you will not follow the terms due to your countries internal politics ?
- gambiting 10y agoI think it was BBC that said that UK government has literally just 6(yes, six) people who have any sort of experience in international trade negotiations, since UK hasn't done it alone in so long.
- TheOtherHobbes 10y agoEven the government believes it will take six years to renegotiate the deals - which means it's likely to take ten or more. This continues to be one of the most suicidal moves in British history.