5 ms·

I think that the reaction will be simply to adopt minimal changes in the short term in ways in which Euro treaties and laws are brought wholesale onto Westminst

I think that the reaction will be simply to adopt minimal changes in the short term in ways in which Euro treaties and laws are brought wholesale onto Westminster statute books. Significant change will only occur over time and limbo is to be avoided where possible - not just for the UK, but for everyone else as well. This is the only thing that would make sense even if everything was planned and orderly, which I think we can all agree is not the case.

wrong_variable 10y ago
If I am not mistaken - individual countries are not willing to negotiate trade treaties before the UK invokes article 50. Even if by some miracle Theresa May decides to withhold invoking article 50 before creating new treaties using back channels with the 50 other trading partners of the UK, it wont be possible to enact them until the UK leaves the EU and negotiates a new trade deal with the EU.
- dogma1138 10y ago
  The EU will not really negotiate using back channels, the only miracle the UK can hope for is that it would be deemed that a full vote in both houses is needed to invoke Article 50 and hopefully it would fail.
- hardlianotion 10y ago
  Not precisely. The idea is that no discussions about anything will occur before Article 50 is invoked. Article 50 kicks off negotiations for the practicalities of leaving the EU. After that, and only after that, negotiations for UK's following status are supposed to take place. Neither of these conditions are in the interest of the EU or the UK if talks are to be amicable and realistic. Amicable and realistic talks are very much in the interests of all concerned - and I guess from the EU point of view, the leadership resolution in the UK could have been a lot worse. The rules are meant to discourage les autres, but there is little appetite at the moment for other countries to flirt with leaving. Also rhetoric is beginning to calm down as well - no more calls for immediate Article 50 invocation and UKIP have faded into the background a little. So far so not as bad as it could be.
  - mpweiher 10y ago
    "Neither of these conditions are in the interest of the EU or the UK if talks are to be amicable and realistic." Well, that's your opinion. EU officials and heads of government appear to disagree with your view of what's best for them, having consistently and unerringly insisted that there will be NO negotiations whatsoever until Article 50 is invoked.
    - hardlianotion 10y ago
      Except that this is not the case. In the last week, already, we have had senior government officials from several member countries recognising that this is not a realistic stance. And the foreign secretary explicitly mentions that UK is having precisely these conversations. The new administration is setting up a brexit department and accumulating expertise necessary to start negotiations. Talk is of article 50 invocation by year end (I think).
      - mpweiher 10y ago
        In the last week, already, we have had senior government officials from several member countries recognising that this is not a realistic stance. Citation needed. I have never seen this, and a quick check reveals the opposite: "Ms Merkel added: “We have spoken to Britain and made clear there will be no negotiations with Britain until they have made their application, and there will be no cherry picking.”" http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-referendum-angela-merkel-article-50-leave-europe-negotiations-talks-a7132261.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-refe... This is from yesterday.
        hardlianotion 10y ago
        The idea that nobody will discuss anything is simply unsustainable, given the timescales and uncertainty involved. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/09/philip-hammond-eu-leaders-happy-to-hold-informal-brexit-talks http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/09/philip-hammo... http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/02612186-467b-11e6-8d68-72e9211e86ab.html http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/02612186-467b-11e6-8d68-72e9211e86...
creshal 10y ago
> I think that the reaction will be simply to adopt minimal changes in the short term in ways in which Euro treaties and laws are brought wholesale onto Westminster statute books Assuming countries are willing to grant the UK alone the same terms as the EU as a whole, and don't (ab)use this chance to negotiate a better situation for themselves.
djlastword 10y ago
I think you're underestimating the psychological aspect of Brexit. We Europeans feel betrayed and abandoned by the Brits. Especially since they always demanded and got special deals on everything EU-related anyway. Their arrogance will finally get to them. Plus we have access to another 27 countries so the loss will not be huge for us. No matter when official negotiations start, trade and other collaboration will start declining immediately. I mean, why would I go on vacation to a place where I'm not welcome? Why would I do business with a country where risks are high and benefit low? From an EU leadership perspective, in order to deter other potential exits the conditions will be harsh. After the exit UK will have to stand in the back of the line for new negotiations, lower priority than e.g. Turkey and Ukraine. Within 10 years or so things might have normalised but in the short term Britain will absolutely suffer because of this.
- rwmj 10y ago
  Please don't view everyone in the UK as one "thing", as if all British people are (in your words) arrogant. 48% of people voted to remain in the EU.
  - djlastword 10y ago
    I was referring more to the leadership than the people. If you're a bremainer I genuinely sympathise with you.
    - etatoby 10y ago
      It's very likely he is a remainer, considering the nature of this forum. Stats show there was (is?) a clear divide between leave and remain along geographical, age, and class boundaries, which are most certainly correlated with higher education and/or interest in technical subjects. And yes, we sympathise with you.
- hardlianotion 10y ago
  I think this will happen to some extent, even if just as a result of uncertainty that prevails when nobody knows what the formal situation will be. There is a range of European sentiment, but for sure a lot of disappointment. All countries in the EU have a keen idea of their self interest at all times, and the UK is no exception. The national interest here has always been wholehearted participation in the single market deepening and expansion and little interest at all in the larger political project, which did not exist when the UK joined the EEC. "Special deals" do not fairly characterise the relationship. I don't think that EU leaders have an urge to make the UK suffer that is dominant over the desire to have good neighbours and a healthy, stable future. We have all done well out of the relationship and we want to prosper together in the future. Europe needs wholehearted cooperation on the issues that unite us, and that needs good faith and an appreciation of what we still have.

wrong_variable 10y ago

If I am not mistaken - individual countries are not willing to negotiate trade treaties before the UK invokes article 50. Even if by some miracle Theresa May decides to withhold invoking article 50 before creating new treaties using back channels with the 50 other trading partners of the UK, it wont be possible to enact them until the UK leaves the EU and negotiates a new trade deal with the EU.

dogma1138 10y ago
The EU will not really negotiate using back channels, the only miracle the UK can hope for is that it would be deemed that a full vote in both houses is needed to invoke Article 50 and hopefully it would fail.
hardlianotion 10y ago
Not precisely. The idea is that no discussions about anything will occur before Article 50 is invoked. Article 50 kicks off negotiations for the practicalities of leaving the EU. After that, and only after that, negotiations for UK's following status are supposed to take place. Neither of these conditions are in the interest of the EU or the UK if talks are to be amicable and realistic. Amicable and realistic talks are very much in the interests of all concerned - and I guess from the EU point of view, the leadership resolution in the UK could have been a lot worse. The rules are meant to discourage les autres, but there is little appetite at the moment for other countries to flirt with leaving. Also rhetoric is beginning to calm down as well - no more calls for immediate Article 50 invocation and UKIP have faded into the background a little. So far so not as bad as it could be.
- mpweiher 10y ago
  "Neither of these conditions are in the interest of the EU or the UK if talks are to be amicable and realistic." Well, that's your opinion. EU officials and heads of government appear to disagree with your view of what's best for them, having consistently and unerringly insisted that there will be NO negotiations whatsoever until Article 50 is invoked.
  - hardlianotion 10y ago
    Except that this is not the case. In the last week, already, we have had senior government officials from several member countries recognising that this is not a realistic stance. And the foreign secretary explicitly mentions that UK is having precisely these conversations. The new administration is setting up a brexit department and accumulating expertise necessary to start negotiations. Talk is of article 50 invocation by year end (I think).
    - mpweiher 10y ago
      In the last week, already, we have had senior government officials from several member countries recognising that this is not a realistic stance. Citation needed. I have never seen this, and a quick check reveals the opposite: "Ms Merkel added: “We have spoken to Britain and made clear there will be no negotiations with Britain until they have made their application, and there will be no cherry picking.”" http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-referendum-angela-merkel-article-50-leave-europe-negotiations-talks-a7132261.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-refe... This is from yesterday.
      - hardlianotion 10y ago
        The idea that nobody will discuss anything is simply unsustainable, given the timescales and uncertainty involved. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/09/philip-hammond-eu-leaders-happy-to-hold-informal-brexit-talks http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/09/philip-hammo... http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/02612186-467b-11e6-8d68-72e9211e86ab.html http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/02612186-467b-11e6-8d68-72e9211e86...

creshal 10y ago

> I think that the reaction will be simply to adopt minimal changes in the short term in ways in which Euro treaties and laws are brought wholesale onto Westminster statute books Assuming countries are willing to grant the UK alone the same terms as the EU as a whole, and don't (ab)use this chance to negotiate a better situation for themselves.

djlastword 10y ago

I think you're underestimating the psychological aspect of Brexit. We Europeans feel betrayed and abandoned by the Brits. Especially since they always demanded and got special deals on everything EU-related anyway. Their arrogance will finally get to them. Plus we have access to another 27 countries so the loss will not be huge for us. No matter when official negotiations start, trade and other collaboration will start declining immediately. I mean, why would I go on vacation to a place where I'm not welcome? Why would I do business with a country where risks are high and benefit low? From an EU leadership perspective, in order to deter other potential exits the conditions will be harsh. After the exit UK will have to stand in the back of the line for new negotiations, lower priority than e.g. Turkey and Ukraine. Within 10 years or so things might have normalised but in the short term Britain will absolutely suffer because of this.

rwmj 10y ago
Please don't view everyone in the UK as one "thing", as if all British people are (in your words) arrogant. 48% of people voted to remain in the EU.
- djlastword 10y ago
  I was referring more to the leadership than the people. If you're a bremainer I genuinely sympathise with you.
  - etatoby 10y ago
    It's very likely he is a remainer, considering the nature of this forum. Stats show there was (is?) a clear divide between leave and remain along geographical, age, and class boundaries, which are most certainly correlated with higher education and/or interest in technical subjects. And yes, we sympathise with you.
hardlianotion 10y ago
I think this will happen to some extent, even if just as a result of uncertainty that prevails when nobody knows what the formal situation will be. There is a range of European sentiment, but for sure a lot of disappointment. All countries in the EU have a keen idea of their self interest at all times, and the UK is no exception. The national interest here has always been wholehearted participation in the single market deepening and expansion and little interest at all in the larger political project, which did not exist when the UK joined the EEC. "Special deals" do not fairly characterise the relationship. I don't think that EU leaders have an urge to make the UK suffer that is dominant over the desire to have good neighbours and a healthy, stable future. We have all done well out of the relationship and we want to prosper together in the future. Europe needs wholehearted cooperation on the issues that unite us, and that needs good faith and an appreciation of what we still have.