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Large Multinationals like Unilever, even for incremental decisions - like changing the type of light bulb, takes years to execute. This is why a large change in

Large Multinationals like Unilever, even for incremental decisions - like changing the type of light bulb, takes years to execute. This is why a large change in their business is so difficult and you need a very good CEO ( ask Marissa Mayer ) The decision UK made to leave the EU is akin for Unilever to switch from selling shampoos to selling software - and we are not talking about a multinational with 100,000 employees. We are talking about an entire country. The UK -> EU export is 40% but even the rest of the 60% happens through EU treaties with other non-EU countries. Not only will the EU trade treaty need to be renegotiated, but so does the 50 other trade treaty with other nations - those treaties took a lot of time and over 600+ negotiators to write, the UK only have 30 negotiators and about 2 years. A reworking of the economy usually results is a lot of unemployment and retraining. Imagine if the C standard library made a small change in some function. Retraining means public investment or as the austerity people put it - deficit spending - not sure how much appetite the UK govt has to do something like that. Regardless of how much people hate on Java and Oracle - if they suddenly disappeared it would be chaos and lose of GDP for many years before we retool our software on Python/Go etc. Also there is uncertainty - usually the horizon for bringing new laws into action are declared ahead of time by 4-5 years to give people/businesses time to plan.

hardlianotion 10y ago
I think that the reaction will be simply to adopt minimal changes in the short term in ways in which Euro treaties and laws are brought wholesale onto Westminster statute books. Significant change will only occur over time and limbo is to be avoided where possible - not just for the UK, but for everyone else as well. This is the only thing that would make sense even if everything was planned and orderly, which I think we can all agree is not the case.
- wrong_variable 10y ago
  If I am not mistaken - individual countries are not willing to negotiate trade treaties before the UK invokes article 50. Even if by some miracle Theresa May decides to withhold invoking article 50 before creating new treaties using back channels with the 50 other trading partners of the UK, it wont be possible to enact them until the UK leaves the EU and negotiates a new trade deal with the EU.
  - dogma1138 10y ago
    The EU will not really negotiate using back channels, the only miracle the UK can hope for is that it would be deemed that a full vote in both houses is needed to invoke Article 50 and hopefully it would fail.
  - hardlianotion 10y ago
    Not precisely. The idea is that no discussions about anything will occur before Article 50 is invoked. Article 50 kicks off negotiations for the practicalities of leaving the EU. After that, and only after that, negotiations for UK's following status are supposed to take place. Neither of these conditions are in the interest of the EU or the UK if talks are to be amicable and realistic. Amicable and realistic talks are very much in the interests of all concerned - and I guess from the EU point of view, the leadership resolution in the UK could have been a lot worse. The rules are meant to discourage les autres, but there is little appetite at the moment for other countries to flirt with leaving. Also rhetoric is beginning to calm down as well - no more calls for immediate Article 50 invocation and UKIP have faded into the background a little. So far so not as bad as it could be.
    - mpweiher 10y ago
      "Neither of these conditions are in the interest of the EU or the UK if talks are to be amicable and realistic." Well, that's your opinion. EU officials and heads of government appear to disagree with your view of what's best for them, having consistently and unerringly insisted that there will be NO negotiations whatsoever until Article 50 is invoked.
      - hardlianotion 10y ago
        Except that this is not the case. In the last week, already, we have had senior government officials from several member countries recognising that this is not a realistic stance. And the foreign secretary explicitly mentions that UK is having precisely these conversations. The new administration is setting up a brexit department and accumulating expertise necessary to start negotiations. Talk is of article 50 invocation by year end (I think).
- creshal 10y ago
  > I think that the reaction will be simply to adopt minimal changes in the short term in ways in which Euro treaties and laws are brought wholesale onto Westminster statute books Assuming countries are willing to grant the UK alone the same terms as the EU as a whole, and don't (ab)use this chance to negotiate a better situation for themselves.
- djlastword 10y ago
  I think you're underestimating the psychological aspect of Brexit. We Europeans feel betrayed and abandoned by the Brits. Especially since they always demanded and got special deals on everything EU-related anyway. Their arrogance will finally get to them. Plus we have access to another 27 countries so the loss will not be huge for us. No matter when official negotiations start, trade and other collaboration will start declining immediately. I mean, why would I go on vacation to a place where I'm not welcome? Why would I do business with a country where risks are high and benefit low? From an EU leadership perspective, in order to deter other potential exits the conditions will be harsh. After the exit UK will have to stand in the back of the line for new negotiations, lower priority than e.g. Turkey and Ukraine. Within 10 years or so things might have normalised but in the short term Britain will absolutely suffer because of this.
  - rwmj 10y ago
    Please don't view everyone in the UK as one "thing", as if all British people are (in your words) arrogant. 48% of people voted to remain in the EU.
    - djlastword 10y ago
      I was referring more to the leadership than the people. If you're a bremainer I genuinely sympathise with you.
      - etatoby 10y ago
        It's very likely he is a remainer, considering the nature of this forum. Stats show there was (is?) a clear divide between leave and remain along geographical, age, and class boundaries, which are most certainly correlated with higher education and/or interest in technical subjects. And yes, we sympathise with you.
  - hardlianotion 10y ago
    I think this will happen to some extent, even if just as a result of uncertainty that prevails when nobody knows what the formal situation will be. There is a range of European sentiment, but for sure a lot of disappointment. All countries in the EU have a keen idea of their self interest at all times, and the UK is no exception. The national interest here has always been wholehearted participation in the single market deepening and expansion and little interest at all in the larger political project, which did not exist when the UK joined the EEC. "Special deals" do not fairly characterise the relationship. I don't think that EU leaders have an urge to make the UK suffer that is dominant over the desire to have good neighbours and a healthy, stable future. We have all done well out of the relationship and we want to prosper together in the future. Europe needs wholehearted cooperation on the issues that unite us, and that needs good faith and an appreciation of what we still have.
junto 10y ago
> Not only will the EU trade treaty need to be renegotiated, but so does the 50 other trade treaty with other nations - those treaties took a lot of time and over 600+ negotiators to write, the UK only have 30 negotiators and about 2 years. The UK hasn't done their own trade negotiations for over 30 years. The EU has. They haven't got the right people with the right experience to do this (yet). They need to hire the best they can, or outsource, in order to get things in place within the deadline once the UK parliament has voted the referendum result through and Article 50 is submitted. It is going to be tight. I imagine that Whitehall is in a shit storm right now.
- sievebrain 10y ago
  The EU has done an extremely bad job of signing trade deals. Much smaller countries have managed to do a much better job. I wouldn't look at the EU and say "we need the same setup" because the EU deliberately makes it hard for itself to sign deals by insisting that they try to satisfy 28 different countries simultaneously, who don't use the same language and which all have their own random domestic priorities to handle. I've actually read trade deals. The idea that there's only a handful of people in the world who can negotiate these things is ridiculous.
  - wrong_variable 10y ago
    Could you provide some examples of countries striking better trade deals. Its also two things negotiators and knowing your strengths. The world's best negotiators wont be able help you very much if you do not have much to offer. Also I am skeptical of your assertion that anyone could write trade deals. It requires a very deep understanding of economics, international finance, geopolitics and a bunch of other topics - I would say being able to be a good trade negotiator is a lot more difficult than being a programmer and has far more profound consequences.
    - endeavour 10y ago
      Chile, Switzerland and Iceland all have free trade agreements with China. The EU doesn't.
onion2k 10y ago
usually the horizon for bringing new laws into action are declared ahead of time by 4-5 years to give people/businesses time to plan. There's a legal requirement as part of the Lisbon treaty that as soon as a country invokes Article 50 (leaving the EU) they have 2 years to negotiate treaties with all parties involved, after which all existing EU treaties with that country cease to apply. That means, from the day the government invokes Article 50, there is a maximum of 2 years access to EU funding for any science project in the UK. Any project that will take longer than that has pretty much zero chance of getting funded in the first place. Given the fact that Theresa May might invoke Article 50 on Thursday, getting a long term project funded is going to be impossible.
- pimterry 10y ago
  She's said she won't invoke article 50 before the end of the year, so there's a little breathing room at least. > "What is important is that we do this in the right timescale and we do it to get the right deal for the UK," Ms May told ITV television, reiterating that she would not trigger the article this year.) http://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/no-exit-trigger-until-the-time-is-right-insists-may http://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/no-exit-trigger-unt...
flexie 10y ago
I talked to a senior diplomat recently. He said that when talking to diplomats from China, Russia, the US in the beginning of his career some 30 years ago, nobody asked about the EU opinion on issues. In the last 10 years, however, he never heard "what does Britain or France or Germany think about XYZ" but only "What does the EU think". What some leavers don't realise is that the entire world had gotten used to dealing with the EU as a whole and that the world probably doesn't care that much about what Britain (or England/Wales) thinks about tariffs, terrorism, refugees, wars, human rights, etc. Britain will have to follow the EU on many issues if it wants access to the common market. Britain is going from having a very strong voice in a very powerful organisation that the world has to deal with to being a rather small country the world can largely ignore.
- justin66 10y ago
  Since the UK and France are permanent U.N. security council members, that sounds rather hyperbolic.
  - neximo64 10y ago
    The next steps will actually be France will give up its seat and the EU will take it up. The UK was also going to give it up (alongside its WTO seat) which was what drove Cameron's 'ever closer union' clause.
    - marcoperaza 10y ago
      I think the only "next steps" for the EU is a frantic attempt to not crumble. The National Front and Alternative for Germany are gaining fast.
      - Xylakant 10y ago
        The AFD actually lost a few percent in the last polls.
        deleted 10y ago
Wintamute 10y ago
Europe and Antarctica are the only two continents on Earth to see no net positive growth to their economies in the last few decades. I don't think it's too much of a stretch to put such economic under-performance down to at least in part the frankly outdated 70s era customs union that the EU is based on. China recently rated the UK as the number one soft power in the world [1] ... rather than just judging countries on the size of their economy, "soft power" is a measure of a countries ability to achieve its aims through diplomacy and influence. The UK has links of language, culture, trade and kinship across the globe dating back to the time of Empire. Unshackled from the failing trade block of the EU I don't see any reason why the UK couldn't carve out a very acceptable niche for itself operating again as an independent sovereign nation. This wasn't a corporate decision just based on raw economic numbers. This was a decision based on principle rather than pragmatism. It's democracy in action, and sometimes it's messy. http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21657655-oxbridge-one-direction-and-premier-league-bolster-britains-power-persuade-softly-does-it http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21657655-oxbridge-one-...
- mpweiher 10y ago
  Citation needed: Europe and Antarctica are the only two continents on Earth to see no net positive growth to their economies in the last few decades. Hmm...the numbers appear to disagree with your claim: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/european-union/gdp-annual-growth-rate China recently rated the UK as the number one soft power in the world[1] . Hmm...the article does not say that China is the source of the ratings: "compiled by Portland, a London-based PR firm". Let me repeat that: a London-based PR firm rates Britain highly. In other news, the pope says vatican tops in catholicism and the US president thinks US is the greatest. In addition, "Britain scored highly in its “engagement” with the world, [..] its diplomats staffing the largest number of permanent missions to multilateral organisations". Hmm... And finally: "But many of the assets that pushed Britain to the top of the soft-power table are in play. In the next couple of years the country faces a referendum on its membership of the EU; a slimmer role for the BBC, its prolific public broadcaster; and a continuing squeeze on immigration, which has already made its universities less attractive to foreign students. Much of Britain’s hard power was long ago given up. Its soft power endures—for now." Gee...

hardlianotion 10y ago

I think that the reaction will be simply to adopt minimal changes in the short term in ways in which Euro treaties and laws are brought wholesale onto Westminster statute books. Significant change will only occur over time and limbo is to be avoided where possible - not just for the UK, but for everyone else as well. This is the only thing that would make sense even if everything was planned and orderly, which I think we can all agree is not the case.

wrong_variable 10y ago
If I am not mistaken - individual countries are not willing to negotiate trade treaties before the UK invokes article 50. Even if by some miracle Theresa May decides to withhold invoking article 50 before creating new treaties using back channels with the 50 other trading partners of the UK, it wont be possible to enact them until the UK leaves the EU and negotiates a new trade deal with the EU.
- dogma1138 10y ago
  The EU will not really negotiate using back channels, the only miracle the UK can hope for is that it would be deemed that a full vote in both houses is needed to invoke Article 50 and hopefully it would fail.
- hardlianotion 10y ago
  Not precisely. The idea is that no discussions about anything will occur before Article 50 is invoked. Article 50 kicks off negotiations for the practicalities of leaving the EU. After that, and only after that, negotiations for UK's following status are supposed to take place. Neither of these conditions are in the interest of the EU or the UK if talks are to be amicable and realistic. Amicable and realistic talks are very much in the interests of all concerned - and I guess from the EU point of view, the leadership resolution in the UK could have been a lot worse. The rules are meant to discourage les autres, but there is little appetite at the moment for other countries to flirt with leaving. Also rhetoric is beginning to calm down as well - no more calls for immediate Article 50 invocation and UKIP have faded into the background a little. So far so not as bad as it could be.
  - mpweiher 10y ago
    "Neither of these conditions are in the interest of the EU or the UK if talks are to be amicable and realistic." Well, that's your opinion. EU officials and heads of government appear to disagree with your view of what's best for them, having consistently and unerringly insisted that there will be NO negotiations whatsoever until Article 50 is invoked.
    - hardlianotion 10y ago
      Except that this is not the case. In the last week, already, we have had senior government officials from several member countries recognising that this is not a realistic stance. And the foreign secretary explicitly mentions that UK is having precisely these conversations. The new administration is setting up a brexit department and accumulating expertise necessary to start negotiations. Talk is of article 50 invocation by year end (I think).
creshal 10y ago
> I think that the reaction will be simply to adopt minimal changes in the short term in ways in which Euro treaties and laws are brought wholesale onto Westminster statute books Assuming countries are willing to grant the UK alone the same terms as the EU as a whole, and don't (ab)use this chance to negotiate a better situation for themselves.
djlastword 10y ago
I think you're underestimating the psychological aspect of Brexit. We Europeans feel betrayed and abandoned by the Brits. Especially since they always demanded and got special deals on everything EU-related anyway. Their arrogance will finally get to them. Plus we have access to another 27 countries so the loss will not be huge for us. No matter when official negotiations start, trade and other collaboration will start declining immediately. I mean, why would I go on vacation to a place where I'm not welcome? Why would I do business with a country where risks are high and benefit low? From an EU leadership perspective, in order to deter other potential exits the conditions will be harsh. After the exit UK will have to stand in the back of the line for new negotiations, lower priority than e.g. Turkey and Ukraine. Within 10 years or so things might have normalised but in the short term Britain will absolutely suffer because of this.
- rwmj 10y ago
  Please don't view everyone in the UK as one "thing", as if all British people are (in your words) arrogant. 48% of people voted to remain in the EU.
  - djlastword 10y ago
    I was referring more to the leadership than the people. If you're a bremainer I genuinely sympathise with you.
    - etatoby 10y ago
      It's very likely he is a remainer, considering the nature of this forum. Stats show there was (is?) a clear divide between leave and remain along geographical, age, and class boundaries, which are most certainly correlated with higher education and/or interest in technical subjects. And yes, we sympathise with you.
- hardlianotion 10y ago
  I think this will happen to some extent, even if just as a result of uncertainty that prevails when nobody knows what the formal situation will be. There is a range of European sentiment, but for sure a lot of disappointment. All countries in the EU have a keen idea of their self interest at all times, and the UK is no exception. The national interest here has always been wholehearted participation in the single market deepening and expansion and little interest at all in the larger political project, which did not exist when the UK joined the EEC. "Special deals" do not fairly characterise the relationship. I don't think that EU leaders have an urge to make the UK suffer that is dominant over the desire to have good neighbours and a healthy, stable future. We have all done well out of the relationship and we want to prosper together in the future. Europe needs wholehearted cooperation on the issues that unite us, and that needs good faith and an appreciation of what we still have.

junto 10y ago

> Not only will the EU trade treaty need to be renegotiated, but so does the 50 other trade treaty with other nations - those treaties took a lot of time and over 600+ negotiators to write, the UK only have 30 negotiators and about 2 years. The UK hasn't done their own trade negotiations for over 30 years. The EU has. They haven't got the right people with the right experience to do this (yet). They need to hire the best they can, or outsource, in order to get things in place within the deadline once the UK parliament has voted the referendum result through and Article 50 is submitted. It is going to be tight. I imagine that Whitehall is in a shit storm right now.

sievebrain 10y ago
The EU has done an extremely bad job of signing trade deals. Much smaller countries have managed to do a much better job. I wouldn't look at the EU and say "we need the same setup" because the EU deliberately makes it hard for itself to sign deals by insisting that they try to satisfy 28 different countries simultaneously, who don't use the same language and which all have their own random domestic priorities to handle. I've actually read trade deals. The idea that there's only a handful of people in the world who can negotiate these things is ridiculous.
- wrong_variable 10y ago
  Could you provide some examples of countries striking better trade deals. Its also two things negotiators and knowing your strengths. The world's best negotiators wont be able help you very much if you do not have much to offer. Also I am skeptical of your assertion that anyone could write trade deals. It requires a very deep understanding of economics, international finance, geopolitics and a bunch of other topics - I would say being able to be a good trade negotiator is a lot more difficult than being a programmer and has far more profound consequences.
  - endeavour 10y ago
    Chile, Switzerland and Iceland all have free trade agreements with China. The EU doesn't.

onion2k 10y ago

usually the horizon for bringing new laws into action are declared ahead of time by 4-5 years to give people/businesses time to plan. There's a legal requirement as part of the Lisbon treaty that as soon as a country invokes Article 50 (leaving the EU) they have 2 years to negotiate treaties with all parties involved, after which all existing EU treaties with that country cease to apply. That means, from the day the government invokes Article 50, there is a maximum of 2 years access to EU funding for any science project in the UK. Any project that will take longer than that has pretty much zero chance of getting funded in the first place. Given the fact that Theresa May might invoke Article 50 on Thursday, getting a long term project funded is going to be impossible.

pimterry 10y ago
She's said she won't invoke article 50 before the end of the year, so there's a little breathing room at least. > "What is important is that we do this in the right timescale and we do it to get the right deal for the UK," Ms May told ITV television, reiterating that she would not trigger the article this year.) http://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/no-exit-trigger-until-the-time-is-right-insists-may http://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/no-exit-trigger-unt...

flexie 10y ago

I talked to a senior diplomat recently. He said that when talking to diplomats from China, Russia, the US in the beginning of his career some 30 years ago, nobody asked about the EU opinion on issues. In the last 10 years, however, he never heard "what does Britain or France or Germany think about XYZ" but only "What does the EU think". What some leavers don't realise is that the entire world had gotten used to dealing with the EU as a whole and that the world probably doesn't care that much about what Britain (or England/Wales) thinks about tariffs, terrorism, refugees, wars, human rights, etc. Britain will have to follow the EU on many issues if it wants access to the common market. Britain is going from having a very strong voice in a very powerful organisation that the world has to deal with to being a rather small country the world can largely ignore.

justin66 10y ago
Since the UK and France are permanent U.N. security council members, that sounds rather hyperbolic.
- neximo64 10y ago
  The next steps will actually be France will give up its seat and the EU will take it up. The UK was also going to give it up (alongside its WTO seat) which was what drove Cameron's 'ever closer union' clause.
  - marcoperaza 10y ago
    I think the only "next steps" for the EU is a frantic attempt to not crumble. The National Front and Alternative for Germany are gaining fast.
    - Xylakant 10y ago
      The AFD actually lost a few percent in the last polls.
      - deleted 10y ago

Wintamute 10y ago

Europe and Antarctica are the only two continents on Earth to see no net positive growth to their economies in the last few decades. I don't think it's too much of a stretch to put such economic under-performance down to at least in part the frankly outdated 70s era customs union that the EU is based on. China recently rated the UK as the number one soft power in the world [1] ... rather than just judging countries on the size of their economy, "soft power" is a measure of a countries ability to achieve its aims through diplomacy and influence. The UK has links of language, culture, trade and kinship across the globe dating back to the time of Empire. Unshackled from the failing trade block of the EU I don't see any reason why the UK couldn't carve out a very acceptable niche for itself operating again as an independent sovereign nation. This wasn't a corporate decision just based on raw economic numbers. This was a decision based on principle rather than pragmatism. It's democracy in action, and sometimes it's messy. http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21657655-oxbridge-one-direction-and-premier-league-bolster-britains-power-persuade-softly-does-it http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21657655-oxbridge-one-...

mpweiher 10y ago
Citation needed: Europe and Antarctica are the only two continents on Earth to see no net positive growth to their economies in the last few decades. Hmm...the numbers appear to disagree with your claim: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/european-union/gdp-annual-growth-rate China recently rated the UK as the number one soft power in the world[1] . Hmm...the article does not say that China is the source of the ratings: "compiled by Portland, a London-based PR firm". Let me repeat that: a London-based PR firm rates Britain highly. In other news, the pope says vatican tops in catholicism and the US president thinks US is the greatest. In addition, "Britain scored highly in its “engagement” with the world, [..] its diplomats staffing the largest number of permanent missions to multilateral organisations". Hmm... And finally: "But many of the assets that pushed Britain to the top of the soft-power table are in play. In the next couple of years the country faces a referendum on its membership of the EU; a slimmer role for the BBC, its prolific public broadcaster; and a continuing squeeze on immigration, which has already made its universities less attractive to foreign students. Much of Britain’s hard power was long ago given up. Its soft power endures—for now." Gee...