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Rumour has it the UK will likely go for EEA membership after invoking article 50. This isn't foregone conclusion but a possibility and some would say likely out

by s_dev 10y ago

Rumour has it the UK will likely go for EEA membership after invoking article 50. This isn't foregone conclusion but a possibility and some would say likely outcome. UK will have to accept EU migration and contribute to EU purse but doesn't have a seat at the table making the whole referendum a fruitless pursuit that cost the UK political clout. Conversely the Germans may see Brexit as a threat to the EU (particularly if the UK does well outside the EU) and may veto the UK joining the EEA. The UK performing poorly outside the EU would act as a disincentive to other members who may be weighing up leaving. Another alternative to the hard border between N.Ireland and Ireland is a hard border between N.Ireland and the rest of the UK. Though some saying having to use a passport to travel within your own country defeats the purpose of the country.

threeseed 10y ago
I personally doubt that the UK will go for EEA membership. The Leave campaign made it crystal clear their rationale and the most notable were not allowing EU immigration and not giving money to the EU. For the Tory government to ignore the mandate would be politically catastrophic and would result in the same problems from the right e.g UKIP that caused this whole mess to begin with. It seems more likely that there will be a whole raft of specific agreements over the coming decades that will facilitate a more constructive EU-UK relationship.
- sksksk 10y ago
  I could imagine a situation where we leave the EU and join the EEA on a "temporary" measure, giving us time to negotiate trade deals with other countries, and then when we're ready we will leave the EEA.
- celticninja 10y ago
  The leave campaign made nothing clear and reneged immediately on the promises it had made. Half of them said we would remain in the single market and keep freedom of movement and others said we wouldn't have either. There were no consistent demands from leave. Even leave voters who were interviewed afterwards said they wanted to limit the movement of people from Syria and Afghanistan not the movement of people from Europe, showing not only did they not understand what they voted for their desired outcome was never possible anyway. None of the leave campaign are in a position of power so what they wanted, whatever it was, is not an issue.
deepnet 10y ago
Veto is a very powerful instrument, only the initial members have it. The UK has a similar veto which gives it a powerful negotiating tool - a single member can prevent every decision by vetoing it. The Germans could veto but the UK can veto everything and delay leaving till it gets most of what it wants - effectively halting the EU. Any attempts to circumvent veto can be vetoed.
- s_dev 10y ago
  So you're saying the UK shouldn't invoke article 50 and ignore the referendum keep EU membership and just veto everything thereafter? Or if it does invoke article 50 how does it plan on keeping this veto power after the two year negotiating window expires?
  - deepnet 10y ago
    I am not advocating any policy but OP brought up veto, the veto only belongs to EU founders not all members. Few discussions about the outcome of negotiations mention veto, a blunt instrument the UK has often employed in the past. The referendum doesn't mention a mechanism or timescale.
- Arnt 10y ago
  The UK leaves the EU 24 months after the negotiations start, unless the parties decide on a different date. If anyone wants to play the veto game, they can, for up to 23½ months.
tankenmate 10y ago
For quite some time during the Troubles there was a defacto hard border between N. Ireland and everywhere else. If you wanted to drive across the border, fly to anywhere in the UK, or catch the ferry you had to present photo ID of some kind.
- teh_klev 10y ago
  I visited the Republic of Ireland a few times in the early 90's (circa 91-92, long before the peace talks and the Good Friday agreement, certainly well before the British army patrolled wearing berets instead of helmets). I travelled by ferry with my car from Scotland (Stranraer) to Belfast (Northern Ireland) and was never, upon boarding or disembarking the ferry, asked to show any ID (I didn't even have a passport back then, all I had was a paper driver's license issued prior to the photo version you get now). The only place we were stopped was at the British army checkpoint at Newry. Your car entered a concrete "pen" made up of movable concrete barriers. They pointed remote controlled cameras at the occupants and checked your license plate. If all was well you got a green light and drove on your way, again no id required. If you were about to have a bad day you got a red light and an arrow instructing you to drive into a holding area (or a different barrier operated memory is vague on the details) for further checks. The border with the Republic (on the old road, the R132 now) was unguarded, you just drove on into "the south".
talideon 10y ago
Given the EU is a guarantor of the Good Friday Agreement (EEA membership would preserve freedom of movement, which is essential to the GFA), if the UK government wanted EEA membership and the Germans vetoed it, they could likely throw that in their face.
falsestprophet 10y ago
Though some saying having to use a passport to travel within your own country defeats the purpose of the country. There are some border controls between Ireland including Northern Ireland and the UK now. If you look out of place, you should be prepared to be challenged.
- s_dev 10y ago
  There are currently no border controls between Ireland and N.Ireland or the island of Ireland and the island of Great Britain. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland%E2%80%93United_Kingdom_border https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland%E2%80%93Un...
  - falsestprophet 10y ago
    Thanks for the Wikipedia source. Here is the law: http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/1997/si/277/made/en/print http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/1997/si/277/made/en/print Checks by air and sea are authorized and implemented. The UK Border Force also performs spot inspections.
- CalRobert 10y ago
  Where is that? My experience has been that flying to Ireland to the UK presents no border control whatsoever, though from London to Dublin I do have to present a passport (as a non-EU citizen) since Dublin routes everyone through border control. I believe that has more to do with it being impractical to set up a domestic terminal. Interestingly, an Irish or UK citizen born in the British Isles need only convince the immigration officer of their bona fides, even without a passport.
ranit 10y ago
This is going to be a precedent as all EEA members are either EU or EFTA members and UK will be neither.
CalRobert 10y ago
Nevermind the premise it's built on is a bit of an insult to N.Ireland "Well we can let people into NI but not the REAL UK where we have jobs and the like". If an EU person flies to Dublin, walks across the border to Newry, and lives a full life there, has UK immigration policy failed?

by s_dev 10y ago

threeseed 10y ago

I personally doubt that the UK will go for EEA membership. The Leave campaign made it crystal clear their rationale and the most notable were not allowing EU immigration and not giving money to the EU. For the Tory government to ignore the mandate would be politically catastrophic and would result in the same problems from the right e.g UKIP that caused this whole mess to begin with. It seems more likely that there will be a whole raft of specific agreements over the coming decades that will facilitate a more constructive EU-UK relationship.

sksksk 10y ago
I could imagine a situation where we leave the EU and join the EEA on a "temporary" measure, giving us time to negotiate trade deals with other countries, and then when we're ready we will leave the EEA.
celticninja 10y ago
The leave campaign made nothing clear and reneged immediately on the promises it had made. Half of them said we would remain in the single market and keep freedom of movement and others said we wouldn't have either. There were no consistent demands from leave. Even leave voters who were interviewed afterwards said they wanted to limit the movement of people from Syria and Afghanistan not the movement of people from Europe, showing not only did they not understand what they voted for their desired outcome was never possible anyway. None of the leave campaign are in a position of power so what they wanted, whatever it was, is not an issue.

deepnet 10y ago

Veto is a very powerful instrument, only the initial members have it. The UK has a similar veto which gives it a powerful negotiating tool - a single member can prevent every decision by vetoing it. The Germans could veto but the UK can veto everything and delay leaving till it gets most of what it wants - effectively halting the EU. Any attempts to circumvent veto can be vetoed.

s_dev 10y ago
So you're saying the UK shouldn't invoke article 50 and ignore the referendum keep EU membership and just veto everything thereafter? Or if it does invoke article 50 how does it plan on keeping this veto power after the two year negotiating window expires?
- deepnet 10y ago
  I am not advocating any policy but OP brought up veto, the veto only belongs to EU founders not all members. Few discussions about the outcome of negotiations mention veto, a blunt instrument the UK has often employed in the past. The referendum doesn't mention a mechanism or timescale.
Arnt 10y ago
The UK leaves the EU 24 months after the negotiations start, unless the parties decide on a different date. If anyone wants to play the veto game, they can, for up to 23½ months.

tankenmate 10y ago

For quite some time during the Troubles there was a defacto hard border between N. Ireland and everywhere else. If you wanted to drive across the border, fly to anywhere in the UK, or catch the ferry you had to present photo ID of some kind.

teh_klev 10y ago
I visited the Republic of Ireland a few times in the early 90's (circa 91-92, long before the peace talks and the Good Friday agreement, certainly well before the British army patrolled wearing berets instead of helmets). I travelled by ferry with my car from Scotland (Stranraer) to Belfast (Northern Ireland) and was never, upon boarding or disembarking the ferry, asked to show any ID (I didn't even have a passport back then, all I had was a paper driver's license issued prior to the photo version you get now). The only place we were stopped was at the British army checkpoint at Newry. Your car entered a concrete "pen" made up of movable concrete barriers. They pointed remote controlled cameras at the occupants and checked your license plate. If all was well you got a green light and drove on your way, again no id required. If you were about to have a bad day you got a red light and an arrow instructing you to drive into a holding area (or a different barrier operated memory is vague on the details) for further checks. The border with the Republic (on the old road, the R132 now) was unguarded, you just drove on into "the south".

talideon 10y ago

Given the EU is a guarantor of the Good Friday Agreement (EEA membership would preserve freedom of movement, which is essential to the GFA), if the UK government wanted EEA membership and the Germans vetoed it, they could likely throw that in their face.

falsestprophet 10y ago

Though some saying having to use a passport to travel within your own country defeats the purpose of the country. There are some border controls between Ireland including Northern Ireland and the UK now. If you look out of place, you should be prepared to be challenged.

s_dev 10y ago
There are currently no border controls between Ireland and N.Ireland or the island of Ireland and the island of Great Britain. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland%E2%80%93United_Kingdom_border https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland%E2%80%93Un...
- falsestprophet 10y ago
  Thanks for the Wikipedia source. Here is the law: http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/1997/si/277/made/en/print http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/1997/si/277/made/en/print Checks by air and sea are authorized and implemented. The UK Border Force also performs spot inspections.
CalRobert 10y ago
Where is that? My experience has been that flying to Ireland to the UK presents no border control whatsoever, though from London to Dublin I do have to present a passport (as a non-EU citizen) since Dublin routes everyone through border control. I believe that has more to do with it being impractical to set up a domestic terminal. Interestingly, an Irish or UK citizen born in the British Isles need only convince the immigration officer of their bona fides, even without a passport.

ranit 10y ago

This is going to be a precedent as all EEA members are either EU or EFTA members and UK will be neither.

CalRobert 10y ago

Nevermind the premise it's built on is a bit of an insult to N.Ireland "Well we can let people into NI but not the REAL UK where we have jobs and the like". If an EU person flies to Dublin, walks across the border to Newry, and lives a full life there, has UK immigration policy failed?