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Isn't this a red hot signal that it's a great idea? If everyone is saying no and you see the world differently, you have open space to play. Basically Peter T

by Johnie 10y ago

Isn't this a red hot signal that it's a great idea? If everyone is saying no and you see the world differently, you have open space to play. Basically Peter Thiel's contrarian perspective.

StavrosK 10y ago
"Is selling refrigerators to Eskimos a good idea?" You're begging the question. It's only a signal that it's a great idea if everyone says no given that it is a great idea. Usually, if all your feedback is negative, it's a red hot signal that you should be doing something else.
- emptybits 10y ago
  It's an interesting example you use because I think it still serves the previous point. Peter Drucker wrote, “To sell the Eskimos a refrigerator to keep food cold, is finding a new market; to sell a refrigerator to keep food from getting too cold is actually creating a new product”. (The Practice of Management) This was apparently inspired by a true tale of a Westinghouse salesman who sold deep freezes and fridges to arctic-dwellers. Meat left outside was rock hard and took too long to thaw, and you can't quickly drink frozen water/juice/beer. My point is, lazy conventional group wisdom is often wrong because it's invested in "the way things are." Mature industries are most vulnerable in my experience (personally, I have experience in the large and old-thinking parking and payment industries). Acceptance of "because that's not how things are done" blinds people to opportunities. The lazy majority are too quick to repeat that dismissal. This adds "weight" to a rejection, but little critical analysis. I have found it productive and profitable to often disagree and swim upstream. I recognize not all industries or product spaces are like this.
  - StavrosK 10y ago
    At most, people's opinion is uncorrelated with the result. To say that people's opinion is strongly inversely correlated means that people saying "oh my god take my money right now" means you should never follow that idea. Simply put, you can't have it both ways. You can't both have people saying "no" and people saying "yes" mean that it's a good idea.
justinlardinois 10y ago
Not necessarily. You might be the only person that sees (or can be convinced to see) the world that way.
mooreds 10y ago
> Isn't this a red hot signal that it's a great idea? Unfortunately both the great ideas and the awful ideas look awful.

by Johnie 10y ago

Isn't this a red hot signal that it's a great idea? If everyone is saying no and you see the world differently, you have open space to play. Basically Peter Thiel's contrarian perspective.

StavrosK 10y ago

"Is selling refrigerators to Eskimos a good idea?" You're begging the question. It's only a signal that it's a great idea if everyone says no given that it is a great idea. Usually, if all your feedback is negative, it's a red hot signal that you should be doing something else.

emptybits 10y ago
It's an interesting example you use because I think it still serves the previous point. Peter Drucker wrote, “To sell the Eskimos a refrigerator to keep food cold, is finding a new market; to sell a refrigerator to keep food from getting too cold is actually creating a new product”. (The Practice of Management) This was apparently inspired by a true tale of a Westinghouse salesman who sold deep freezes and fridges to arctic-dwellers. Meat left outside was rock hard and took too long to thaw, and you can't quickly drink frozen water/juice/beer. My point is, lazy conventional group wisdom is often wrong because it's invested in "the way things are." Mature industries are most vulnerable in my experience (personally, I have experience in the large and old-thinking parking and payment industries). Acceptance of "because that's not how things are done" blinds people to opportunities. The lazy majority are too quick to repeat that dismissal. This adds "weight" to a rejection, but little critical analysis. I have found it productive and profitable to often disagree and swim upstream. I recognize not all industries or product spaces are like this.
- StavrosK 10y ago
  At most, people's opinion is uncorrelated with the result. To say that people's opinion is strongly inversely correlated means that people saying "oh my god take my money right now" means you should never follow that idea. Simply put, you can't have it both ways. You can't both have people saying "no" and people saying "yes" mean that it's a good idea.

justinlardinois 10y ago

Not necessarily. You might be the only person that sees (or can be convinced to see) the world that way.

mooreds 10y ago

> Isn't this a red hot signal that it's a great idea? Unfortunately both the great ideas and the awful ideas look awful.