That logic ignores the current state. The logic is: "People are not able to drive. Thanks to X, they now are, but have probability Y of dying. Given that Y > 0

That logic ignores the current state. The logic is: "People are not able to drive. Thanks to X, they now are, but have probability Y of dying. Given that Y > 0, X should not be granted." With X = driving license, and Y = human car fatalities, that logic concludes that driving licenses should not be granted. The Trolley problem is an interesting ethical question because it is not a daily occurrence. This scenario, on the other hand, is. To me, the critical factor is that the risk of death is equal or reduced statistically, which so far seems to be the case.