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I'm not seeing where the author concedes that 500k lives a year would be saved. That number is in an Elon Musk quote, not the authors argument. Keep in mind to

I'm not seeing where the author concedes that 500k lives a year would be saved. That number is in an Elon Musk quote, not the authors argument. Keep in mind total US road fatalities in the US is ~32k. I'm not sure how Elon got to 500k, but even if we handed out a free Tesla to every single American, and not a single person was ever killed in a Tesla, it's off by an order of magnitude. Of course Elon is quoting global fatalities, but road fatalities in 2nd & 3rd world countries could be improved with lots of basic infrastructure & existing car technology. It's simply not comparing apples to oranges, before you even start considering the unrealistic cost of a Tesla for those markets. tl;dr; the 500k number is bullshit and any argument based on it is asinine.

whack 10y ago
That quote was planted in the middle of a section where the author himself was talking about the vast prevalence of car fatalities caused by human error, and how automated driving can help minimize that. Given the context around the quote, the author's decision to include the quote, and the fact that the author made no attempt whatsoever to contest or dispute the quote at all, I see no reason to believe that the author doubts the quote. Regarding the numbers behind the 500k: - there were 1.25 million road deaths globally in 2013 - yes, this can be improved through seatbelts and safety standards, but it can also be improved by self-driving technology. This isn't an either-or problem. Having one doesn't preclude the other. - self-driving cars aren't limited to Teslas. Any car manufacturer can integrate self-driving into their cars. - there's no reason why self-driving technology won't penetrate the market and become mainstream, at some point in this century. This is obviously not going to happen overnight. The more we delay the initial roll out, the longer mainstream penetration will take.

whack 10y ago

That quote was planted in the middle of a section where the author himself was talking about the vast prevalence of car fatalities caused by human error, and how automated driving can help minimize that. Given the context around the quote, the author's decision to include the quote, and the fact that the author made no attempt whatsoever to contest or dispute the quote at all, I see no reason to believe that the author doubts the quote. Regarding the numbers behind the 500k: - there were 1.25 million road deaths globally in 2013 - yes, this can be improved through seatbelts and safety standards, but it can also be improved by self-driving technology. This isn't an either-or problem. Having one doesn't preclude the other. - self-driving cars aren't limited to Teslas. Any car manufacturer can integrate self-driving into their cars. - there's no reason why self-driving technology won't penetrate the market and become mainstream, at some point in this century. This is obviously not going to happen overnight. The more we delay the initial roll out, the longer mainstream penetration will take.