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The thing that strikes me as more than a little off-key about the hive mind-like push for fully autonomous cars is that most drivers don't want them: http://www

The thing that strikes me as more than a little off-key about the hive mind-like push for fully autonomous cars is that most drivers don't want them: http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/techflash/2016/05/drivers-dont-want-self-driving-cars-uber-google.html http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/techflash/2016/... "...only 15 percent of respondents would want a fully self-driving vehicle as their next purchase. Meanwhile, 39 percent said they would prefer a vehicle that has some self-driving features. Nearly all respondents (95 percent) said they would want access to a steering wheel, gas and pedal controls even if a vehicle were self-driving, suggesting a wariness toward the technology. Brandon Schoettle, the study’s author, noted that public attitudes toward self-driving vehicles haven’t shifted much over the past couple of years, despite well-publicized developments in the space." This sort of reminds me of Google Glass- the tech early adopters were praising it highly and worked the hype up to a thick lather, but "normal" people wouldn't be caught dead using it and the product belly flopped badly. The entire exercise seems like the self driving technology is being built for its own sake, as though the coolness of the engineering challenge will stimulate sufficient demand to justify the endeavor.

cylinder 10y ago
That really means nothing. If you asked people "do you want a machine that dries your clothes" or "do you want a computer you carry in your pocket" a long time ago you probably would have received tepid interest.
- pessimizer 10y ago
  That's completely untrue.
- rjdagost 10y ago
  It most certainly doesn't mean nothing. It means that that there are significant trust issues that must be overcome before autonomous driving technology can get widespread acceptance. This is not a pure engineering problem that must be solved. Technologists can endlessly repeat "autonomous driving is inevitable" but that alone won't make it so.
  - slavik81 10y ago
    How can you trust a thing that doesn't exist? It's certainly understandable why people might hedge their bets. It's a lot to ask to get commitment to something sight-unseen. I have faith that the trust will arrive soon after the technology does. In the article, they state that Google thinks it will be 30 years before cars will be fully capable without steering wheels. If I were a survey respondent, I wouldn't want to wait that long to get my next car either.
- rdtsc 10y ago
  I think most people have driven a car with cruise control. Some cars have the "stay in lane" feature. People have certainly been riding in cars driven by others. I don't think it is a huge leap for them to imagine what it would be like riding in a passenger seat but car just drives itself. As most political science people would know, it depends how the question was asked. It can be asked to insinuate that there would be a Windows 7 computer running their car and it would be taking the person 80 mph on the highway or through the crowded 5 lane bumper to bumper traffic to a job interview, or some important appointment they might say "no". They can immediately imagine horror scenarios happening. I only found the abstract to couldn't see how questions were formulated: http://www.umich.edu/~umtriswt/PDF/SWT-2016-8_Abstract_English.pdf http://www.umich.edu/~umtriswt/PDF/SWT-2016-8_Abstract_Engli...
- mbesto 10y ago
  Neither of those is an immediate evolution of their predecessor. Autonomous cars literally have the exact same structure of their predecessor (the manually driven car), they just simply automate the manual labor required to operate the machinery.
- thaumasiotes 10y ago
  > If you asked people "do you want a machine that dries your clothes" [] a long time ago you probably would have received tepid interest. You can ask this question of people today and still receive at best tepid interest. Dryers are unpopular in China.
  - dboreham 10y ago
    And Europe* *Washers with the built in dryer that never really works don't count.
AlexCoventry 10y ago
Even if there is no consumer interest, the value to the transport industry as a whole will be enormous.
- rjdagost 10y ago
  Sure, there is already significant interest in some specialized industries (long haul trucking, transportation around large scale mines, and others), and that interest will grow incrementally as the technology matures. But the article is more about the general consumer case. I think consumers will gradually warm up to autonomous driving as it is proven out on a large scale but that it will take much longer than early adopters predict.
zyxley 10y ago
The "as their next purchase" part of that option seems like it would seriously distort the results. I'm sure plenty of those people were thinking "I don't think I'd trust a self-driving car that came out today, but it's be pretty cool to get one later once I know they work well".
modeless 10y ago
Instead of asking whether they want to buy a self-driving car, ask if they want a 75% discount on Uber rides. I think we all know the answer to that.
- mwfunk 10y ago
  We don't know the answer to that, because it would be determined by how much the public trusts technology that doesn't exist yet (at least not in a form ready to be deployed en masse by Uber). And if they did trust it, there'd be no reason for Uber to give a 75% discount for using it.
- teacup50 10y ago
  Spend some time out of a city. Or at least trying to consider what life is like outside of a city.
  - modeless 10y ago
    I grew up on a farm in the country. Perhaps you should try to consider that: 1. 80% of the US population lives in urban areas. 2. The cheaper Uber gets the farther out from population centers it can expand.
- dagw 10y ago
  What makes you think that owning, maintaining and operating a fleet of self-driving cars will be that much cheaper than just hiring people who own and maintain their own cars.
ben_jones 10y ago
Reminds me of my parents who for every car they've ever bought got 0 add on features. I wouldn't be surprised if autonomous capability was seen as an excessive car feature and thus shied away from by everyone used to running their cars into the ground before replacing them with the bare minimum model replacement. All they have to do to flip that poll on its head is to sell autonomous cars as a low end product rather then a high end product. As is Tesla is leading the pack with "cool car that cost $80k that you'll never own!"
- kalleboo 10y ago
  Polls aside, there's a chance having autonomous driving could end up giving you a reduction in insurance premiums, resulting in it actually adding value that way.
dopeboy 10y ago
Google Glass was a vitamin. Autonomous driving is a pain killer.

cylinder 10y ago

That really means nothing. If you asked people "do you want a machine that dries your clothes" or "do you want a computer you carry in your pocket" a long time ago you probably would have received tepid interest.

pessimizer 10y ago
That's completely untrue.
rjdagost 10y ago
It most certainly doesn't mean nothing. It means that that there are significant trust issues that must be overcome before autonomous driving technology can get widespread acceptance. This is not a pure engineering problem that must be solved. Technologists can endlessly repeat "autonomous driving is inevitable" but that alone won't make it so.
- slavik81 10y ago
  How can you trust a thing that doesn't exist? It's certainly understandable why people might hedge their bets. It's a lot to ask to get commitment to something sight-unseen. I have faith that the trust will arrive soon after the technology does. In the article, they state that Google thinks it will be 30 years before cars will be fully capable without steering wheels. If I were a survey respondent, I wouldn't want to wait that long to get my next car either.
rdtsc 10y ago
I think most people have driven a car with cruise control. Some cars have the "stay in lane" feature. People have certainly been riding in cars driven by others. I don't think it is a huge leap for them to imagine what it would be like riding in a passenger seat but car just drives itself. As most political science people would know, it depends how the question was asked. It can be asked to insinuate that there would be a Windows 7 computer running their car and it would be taking the person 80 mph on the highway or through the crowded 5 lane bumper to bumper traffic to a job interview, or some important appointment they might say "no". They can immediately imagine horror scenarios happening. I only found the abstract to couldn't see how questions were formulated: http://www.umich.edu/~umtriswt/PDF/SWT-2016-8_Abstract_English.pdf http://www.umich.edu/~umtriswt/PDF/SWT-2016-8_Abstract_Engli...
mbesto 10y ago
Neither of those is an immediate evolution of their predecessor. Autonomous cars literally have the exact same structure of their predecessor (the manually driven car), they just simply automate the manual labor required to operate the machinery.
thaumasiotes 10y ago
> If you asked people "do you want a machine that dries your clothes" [] a long time ago you probably would have received tepid interest. You can ask this question of people today and still receive at best tepid interest. Dryers are unpopular in China.
- dboreham 10y ago
  And Europe* *Washers with the built in dryer that never really works don't count.

AlexCoventry 10y ago

Even if there is no consumer interest, the value to the transport industry as a whole will be enormous.

rjdagost 10y ago
Sure, there is already significant interest in some specialized industries (long haul trucking, transportation around large scale mines, and others), and that interest will grow incrementally as the technology matures. But the article is more about the general consumer case. I think consumers will gradually warm up to autonomous driving as it is proven out on a large scale but that it will take much longer than early adopters predict.

zyxley 10y ago

The "as their next purchase" part of that option seems like it would seriously distort the results. I'm sure plenty of those people were thinking "I don't think I'd trust a self-driving car that came out today, but it's be pretty cool to get one later once I know they work well".

modeless 10y ago

Instead of asking whether they want to buy a self-driving car, ask if they want a 75% discount on Uber rides. I think we all know the answer to that.

mwfunk 10y ago
We don't know the answer to that, because it would be determined by how much the public trusts technology that doesn't exist yet (at least not in a form ready to be deployed en masse by Uber). And if they did trust it, there'd be no reason for Uber to give a 75% discount for using it.
teacup50 10y ago
Spend some time out of a city. Or at least trying to consider what life is like outside of a city.
- modeless 10y ago
  I grew up on a farm in the country. Perhaps you should try to consider that: 1. 80% of the US population lives in urban areas. 2. The cheaper Uber gets the farther out from population centers it can expand.
dagw 10y ago
What makes you think that owning, maintaining and operating a fleet of self-driving cars will be that much cheaper than just hiring people who own and maintain their own cars.

ben_jones 10y ago

Reminds me of my parents who for every car they've ever bought got 0 add on features. I wouldn't be surprised if autonomous capability was seen as an excessive car feature and thus shied away from by everyone used to running their cars into the ground before replacing them with the bare minimum model replacement. All they have to do to flip that poll on its head is to sell autonomous cars as a low end product rather then a high end product. As is Tesla is leading the pack with "cool car that cost $80k that you'll never own!"

kalleboo 10y ago
Polls aside, there's a chance having autonomous driving could end up giving you a reduction in insurance premiums, resulting in it actually adding value that way.

dopeboy 10y ago

Google Glass was a vitamin. Autonomous driving is a pain killer.