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But without the war on drugs, the number of bad guys goes way down, doesn't it?

by JeffL 10y ago

learc83 10y ago
That's an excellent point. Some percentage of the criminals who shoot at cops during traffic stops are doing so because they don't want to get caught with the drugs they are carrying.
tptacek 10y ago
Probably not. Contrary to popular perception, the drug war is not a major factor in incarceration in the US. We do incarcerate thousands of people for drug crimes, and we do need to radically reform drug prohibition, but "ending the drug war" will have only a marginal impact.
- dragonwriter 10y ago
  > Contrary to popular perception, the drug war is not a major factor in incarceration in the US. 46.3% of federal prisoners (nearly 85,000) are imprisoned for drug offenses -- not quite an absolute majority, but nearly triple the next highest category (Weapons, Explosives, and Arson.) [0] Fairly recently, it was only 17% for state prisons [1], which is still quite significant -- about 1 in 6. But both of those understate the degree to which the drug war drives imprisonment, because drug crimes (which tend to have a shorter sentence than violent crimes) account for nearly 1/3 of prison admissions, despite accounting for a lower share of total prison population. [1] [0] https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_offenses.jsp https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_offen... [1] http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/social-mobility-memos/posts/2015/11/25-drug-offenders-stock-flow-prisons-rothwell http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/social-mobility-memos/posts/2...
  - tptacek 10y ago
    Federal prison inmates make up less than 8% of all incarcerated persons in the US. The overwhelming majority of all prisoners in the US are in state prisons, and they aren't imprisoned for drug crimes. The Pfaff survey study shows that most of them haven't ever been imprisoned for a drug crime.
    - dragonwriter 10y ago
      Nothing in your post contradicts, or even addresses, anything either in my post, or the point it responds to from upthread. The contention upthread was that "Contrary to popular perception, the drug war is not a major factor in incarceration in the US." Drug offenses alone (and the drug war produces, and includes imprisonment for, other, non-drug offenses) account for about 1/6 of the total prison population and 1/3 of total prison admissions (sources addressed in my previous post in this subthread.) Ending the drug war -- even if you consider only drug offenses, would eliminate a significant share of the total prison population, and a much larger share of total prison admissions. The facts clearly show that, while drug offenses alone are not the majority of incarceration in the US (either by population or admissions), the Drug War is a very significant contributor to incarceration in the US.
      - tptacek 10y ago
        The overwhelming majority --- almost 70% --- of the growth of incarceration from 1995 to 2013 comes from harsher prosecution of violent and property crimes. We should reform drug prohibition simply for humanitarian reasons, but we should not delude ourselves that the solution for police violence or violent crime will come from changing the rules about drugs.
        dragonwriter 10y ago
        > The overwhelming majority --- almost 70% --- of the growth of incarceration from 1995 to 2013 comes from harsher prosecution of violent and property crimes. Which is an interesting factoid, but irrelevant to the issue of whether or not the drug war is a significant factor in incarceration. That 70% of the increase from 1995 to 2013 is from that source (which, while it isn't specific to drug offenses, overlaps, rather than being disjoint from, the drug war) is almost entirely irrelevant to the issue of whether the drug war is a significant in the overall level (whether stock or flow) of incarceration, which it is and remains. (Basically, the main change is longer sentencing, which means simply increases the "stock" contribution of violent/property crimes to incarceration, without doing much to the "flow".) > but we should not delude ourselves that the solution for police violence or violent crime will come from changing the rules about drugs. Since no one has suggested that the solution to either of those would come from that source alone, that -- while true -- would seem to be a complete strawman.

But without the war on drugs, the number of bad guys goes way down, doesn't it?

by JeffL 10y ago

But without the war on drugs, the number of bad guys goes way down, doesn't it?

That's an excellent point. Some percentage of the criminals who shoot at cops during traffic stops are doing so because they don't want to get caught with the drugs they are carrying.

tptacek 10y ago

Probably not. Contrary to popular perception, the drug war is not a major factor in incarceration in the US. We do incarcerate thousands of people for drug crimes, and we do need to radically reform drug prohibition, but "ending the drug war" will have only a marginal impact.

dragonwriter 10y ago
> Contrary to popular perception, the drug war is not a major factor in incarceration in the US. 46.3% of federal prisoners (nearly 85,000) are imprisoned for drug offenses -- not quite an absolute majority, but nearly triple the next highest category (Weapons, Explosives, and Arson.) [0] Fairly recently, it was only 17% for state prisons [1], which is still quite significant -- about 1 in 6. But both of those understate the degree to which the drug war drives imprisonment, because drug crimes (which tend to have a shorter sentence than violent crimes) account for nearly 1/3 of prison admissions, despite accounting for a lower share of total prison population. [1] [0] https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_offenses.jsp https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_offen... [1] http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/social-mobility-memos/posts/2015/11/25-drug-offenders-stock-flow-prisons-rothwell http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/social-mobility-memos/posts/2...
- tptacek 10y ago
  Federal prison inmates make up less than 8% of all incarcerated persons in the US. The overwhelming majority of all prisoners in the US are in state prisons, and they aren't imprisoned for drug crimes. The Pfaff survey study shows that most of them haven't ever been imprisoned for a drug crime.
  - dragonwriter 10y ago
    Nothing in your post contradicts, or even addresses, anything either in my post, or the point it responds to from upthread. The contention upthread was that "Contrary to popular perception, the drug war is not a major factor in incarceration in the US." Drug offenses alone (and the drug war produces, and includes imprisonment for, other, non-drug offenses) account for about 1/6 of the total prison population and 1/3 of total prison admissions (sources addressed in my previous post in this subthread.) Ending the drug war -- even if you consider only drug offenses, would eliminate a significant share of the total prison population, and a much larger share of total prison admissions. The facts clearly show that, while drug offenses alone are not the majority of incarceration in the US (either by population or admissions), the Drug War is a very significant contributor to incarceration in the US.
    - tptacek 10y ago
      The overwhelming majority --- almost 70% --- of the growth of incarceration from 1995 to 2013 comes from harsher prosecution of violent and property crimes. We should reform drug prohibition simply for humanitarian reasons, but we should not delude ourselves that the solution for police violence or violent crime will come from changing the rules about drugs.
      - dragonwriter 10y ago
        > The overwhelming majority --- almost 70% --- of the growth of incarceration from 1995 to 2013 comes from harsher prosecution of violent and property crimes. Which is an interesting factoid, but irrelevant to the issue of whether or not the drug war is a significant factor in incarceration. That 70% of the increase from 1995 to 2013 is from that source (which, while it isn't specific to drug offenses, overlaps, rather than being disjoint from, the drug war) is almost entirely irrelevant to the issue of whether the drug war is a significant in the overall level (whether stock or flow) of incarceration, which it is and remains. (Basically, the main change is longer sentencing, which means simply increases the "stock" contribution of violent/property crimes to incarceration, without doing much to the "flow".) > but we should not delude ourselves that the solution for police violence or violent crime will come from changing the rules about drugs. Since no one has suggested that the solution to either of those would come from that source alone, that -- while true -- would seem to be a complete strawman.