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I really don't mean to be rude or disrespectful, but how it "feels" isn't really interesting or relevant to the question of "is tech hiring actually down". The

I really don't mean to be rude or disrespectful, but how it "feels" isn't really interesting or relevant to the question of "is tech hiring actually down". The OP presented data to support its claims. The data was (imo) very flawed, but at least it provided something to start a substantial quantitative conversation. I think the OP's argument should be praised for "failing fast." By contrast, the internet of hunches is more or less immune to scrutiny. I don't know which way the prevailing winds are blowing in tech. I could swap anecdotes with you (a tech investor I had a beer with recently seemed very happy? my giant tech employer and its competitors are doing great!), but I don't think it wouldn't get us any closer to the ground truth.

pc86 10y ago
One thing that piqued my interest is that he said they've been tracking their competitors' job ads "for a few years." I would have liked to see his competitors' numbers from '15 or '14.
erehweb 10y ago
But remember, the plural of anecdote is data http://blog.revolutionanalytics.com/2011/04/the-plural-of-anecdote-is-data-after-all.html http://blog.revolutionanalytics.com/2011/04/the-plural-of-an... If your giant tech employer and competitors are hiring apace, that is a useful data point.
- gmarx 10y ago
  The guy who originated the quote is clearly wrong (at least in medicine where it matters)
p4wnc6 10y ago
Data, even if only qualitative, about the psychological experience of technology workers seeking employment is very interesting to me. It may have fewer direct applications to policy adjustments, but provides insight into the overall mood and sentiment around tech hiring and employment. The psychological and sociological aspects of tech employment are not discussed as much as they should be and it is a disservice. Again, I love data-driven policy as much as the next Bayesian, but positive description is not the only thing that has value. Sometimes normative description also has value, even if it emerges from a sparse set of qualitative descriptions. I personally would like to see much more anecdotal data about how people feel about tech employment, because I think at this moment in history the interface between organizations and employees represents one of the most significant moral problems on the planet, that has wide-ranging effects stretching from income inequality to PTSD or depression to stagnation of innovations that could alleviate poverty or diseases, etc. In the same way that some claim that governmental regulations stymie tech progress, I feel it's perfectly analogous and perhaps even more critical to point out that organizational bureaucracy in the form of anti-human treatment of workers, candidates, and the unemployed, is just as much of an impediment to collective progress, but is much less talked about because it's fashionable to hate on government but taboo to hate on ethical failures of companies in their treatment of workers, candidates, or the unemployed.
- jknoepfler 10y ago
  I don't disagree with you that "how it feels" is an important aspect of our lives. It is not, however, an important aspect of answering the question "is tech hiring down 40%". If someone says "pneumonia diagnoses are down 40%" and someone replies "I disagree, it doesn't feel like doctors are diagnosing less pneumonia to me," nothing of substance has been added to the conversation. That said, I also think that I interpreted the purpose for posting the article too narrowly. Edit: to be clear, I don't intend to diminish the concerns you listed. The argument "A is irrelevant to B" is not the same as "not A" or "A is irrelevant"
  - p4wnc6 10y ago
    I agree with you. I think I am saying that I don't mind if discussions about "is tech hiring down 40%" also include discussions about "tech hiring sure feels like it's down because here's my experience ...". They are "relevant" in the sense that it provides a logical repository for information about how the job market feels, both factually and emotionally. I don't see much benefit in asserting such a need to keep the topics separate that even a comment thread on Hacker News cannot mix the two kinds of assessments together.
    - jknoepfler 10y ago
      I agree with you, apologies if I was talking past you instead of with you.
calinet6 10y ago
It feels that way to me too, based on my direct experience with my company and several friends' companies. There you go, 2 data points.
- cmdrfred 10y ago
  The plural of anecdote is anecdotes not data.
vasilipupkin 10y ago
Agree, which is why it's relatively straightforward to look at this link http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm Best I can tell, all software related sectors still hiring
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
dang 10y ago
There is nothing wrong with people sharing anecdotes, experiences, feelings, impressions, idle thoughts, and speculations in HN threads. On the contrary: HN threads are conversations, and those things are the life blood of good conversation. True, the article title made a factual claim about data, but that doesn't mean commenters aren't welcome to share their related experiences, or deserve to be chided for not presenting rigorous evidence or treated as if they don't know the difference between the two (which does seem a little disrespectful, though I appreciate that you were trying not to be).

pc86 10y ago

One thing that piqued my interest is that he said they've been tracking their competitors' job ads "for a few years." I would have liked to see his competitors' numbers from '15 or '14.

erehweb 10y ago

But remember, the plural of anecdote is data http://blog.revolutionanalytics.com/2011/04/the-plural-of-anecdote-is-data-after-all.html http://blog.revolutionanalytics.com/2011/04/the-plural-of-an... If your giant tech employer and competitors are hiring apace, that is a useful data point.

gmarx 10y ago
The guy who originated the quote is clearly wrong (at least in medicine where it matters)

p4wnc6 10y ago

Data, even if only qualitative, about the psychological experience of technology workers seeking employment is very interesting to me. It may have fewer direct applications to policy adjustments, but provides insight into the overall mood and sentiment around tech hiring and employment. The psychological and sociological aspects of tech employment are not discussed as much as they should be and it is a disservice. Again, I love data-driven policy as much as the next Bayesian, but positive description is not the only thing that has value. Sometimes normative description also has value, even if it emerges from a sparse set of qualitative descriptions. I personally would like to see much more anecdotal data about how people feel about tech employment, because I think at this moment in history the interface between organizations and employees represents one of the most significant moral problems on the planet, that has wide-ranging effects stretching from income inequality to PTSD or depression to stagnation of innovations that could alleviate poverty or diseases, etc. In the same way that some claim that governmental regulations stymie tech progress, I feel it's perfectly analogous and perhaps even more critical to point out that organizational bureaucracy in the form of anti-human treatment of workers, candidates, and the unemployed, is just as much of an impediment to collective progress, but is much less talked about because it's fashionable to hate on government but taboo to hate on ethical failures of companies in their treatment of workers, candidates, or the unemployed.

jknoepfler 10y ago
I don't disagree with you that "how it feels" is an important aspect of our lives. It is not, however, an important aspect of answering the question "is tech hiring down 40%". If someone says "pneumonia diagnoses are down 40%" and someone replies "I disagree, it doesn't feel like doctors are diagnosing less pneumonia to me," nothing of substance has been added to the conversation. That said, I also think that I interpreted the purpose for posting the article too narrowly. Edit: to be clear, I don't intend to diminish the concerns you listed. The argument "A is irrelevant to B" is not the same as "not A" or "A is irrelevant"
- p4wnc6 10y ago
  I agree with you. I think I am saying that I don't mind if discussions about "is tech hiring down 40%" also include discussions about "tech hiring sure feels like it's down because here's my experience ...". They are "relevant" in the sense that it provides a logical repository for information about how the job market feels, both factually and emotionally. I don't see much benefit in asserting such a need to keep the topics separate that even a comment thread on Hacker News cannot mix the two kinds of assessments together.
  - jknoepfler 10y ago
    I agree with you, apologies if I was talking past you instead of with you.

calinet6 10y ago

It feels that way to me too, based on my direct experience with my company and several friends' companies. There you go, 2 data points.

cmdrfred 10y ago
The plural of anecdote is anecdotes not data.

vasilipupkin 10y ago

Agree, which is why it's relatively straightforward to look at this link http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm Best I can tell, all software related sectors still hiring

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

dang 10y ago

There is nothing wrong with people sharing anecdotes, experiences, feelings, impressions, idle thoughts, and speculations in HN threads. On the contrary: HN threads are conversations, and those things are the life blood of good conversation. True, the article title made a factual claim about data, but that doesn't mean commenters aren't welcome to share their related experiences, or deserve to be chided for not presenting rigorous evidence or treated as if they don't know the difference between the two (which does seem a little disrespectful, though I appreciate that you were trying not to be).