5 ms·

That makes almost no sense to me. Routine traffic stops often bring LEOs and "bad guys" or folks with open warrants out for them, etc... in close contact with

by modoc 10y ago

That makes almost no sense to me. Routine traffic stops often bring LEOs and "bad guys" or folks with open warrants out for them, etc... in close contact with short notice and little planning. Bad guys often panic and shoot, or drive off dangerously, etc...

learc83 10y ago
> Bad guys often panic and shoot, or drive off dangerously, etc. The problem is, what is you're definition of often? And how effective is a (likely holstered handgun) in these situations? Is an armed officer more or less likely to be shot at? Does the presence of an armed officer in all routine traffic stop increase safety overall (not just for the officer, but for non-violent civilians as well). If you look at it from a cost benefit analysis, giving all traffic cops firearms may result in a small decrease in total deaths of officers during traffic stops [1], but a small increase in the total number of deaths of civilians (both innocent bystanders, and belligerent civilians who had no intention to seriously harm anyone). That's probably not enough to justify arming all traffic cops. However if you add in the benefit of a firearm as a tool of compliance to aid in traffic cop's abilities to confiscate drugs and cash, you tip the balance towards arming them. 1. Even this is a big assumption, because we don't know if criminals are more or less likely to fire at armed vs. unarmed traffic cops.
JeffL 10y ago
But without the war on drugs, the number of bad guys goes way down, doesn't it?
- learc83 10y ago
  That's an excellent point. Some percentage of the criminals who shoot at cops during traffic stops are doing so because they don't want to get caught with the drugs they are carrying.
- tptacek 10y ago
  Probably not. Contrary to popular perception, the drug war is not a major factor in incarceration in the US. We do incarcerate thousands of people for drug crimes, and we do need to radically reform drug prohibition, but "ending the drug war" will have only a marginal impact.
  - dragonwriter 10y ago
    > Contrary to popular perception, the drug war is not a major factor in incarceration in the US. 46.3% of federal prisoners (nearly 85,000) are imprisoned for drug offenses -- not quite an absolute majority, but nearly triple the next highest category (Weapons, Explosives, and Arson.) [0] Fairly recently, it was only 17% for state prisons [1], which is still quite significant -- about 1 in 6. But both of those understate the degree to which the drug war drives imprisonment, because drug crimes (which tend to have a shorter sentence than violent crimes) account for nearly 1/3 of prison admissions, despite accounting for a lower share of total prison population. [1] [0] https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_offenses.jsp https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_offen... [1] http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/social-mobility-memos/posts/2015/11/25-drug-offenders-stock-flow-prisons-rothwell http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/social-mobility-memos/posts/2...
    - tptacek 10y ago
      Federal prison inmates make up less than 8% of all incarcerated persons in the US. The overwhelming majority of all prisoners in the US are in state prisons, and they aren't imprisoned for drug crimes. The Pfaff survey study shows that most of them haven't ever been imprisoned for a drug crime.
      - dragonwriter 10y ago
        Nothing in your post contradicts, or even addresses, anything either in my post, or the point it responds to from upthread. The contention upthread was that "Contrary to popular perception, the drug war is not a major factor in incarceration in the US." Drug offenses alone (and the drug war produces, and includes imprisonment for, other, non-drug offenses) account for about 1/6 of the total prison population and 1/3 of total prison admissions (sources addressed in my previous post in this subthread.) Ending the drug war -- even if you consider only drug offenses, would eliminate a significant share of the total prison population, and a much larger share of total prison admissions. The facts clearly show that, while drug offenses alone are not the majority of incarceration in the US (either by population or admissions), the Drug War is a very significant contributor to incarceration in the US.

by modoc 10y ago

learc83 10y ago

> Bad guys often panic and shoot, or drive off dangerously, etc. The problem is, what is you're definition of often? And how effective is a (likely holstered handgun) in these situations? Is an armed officer more or less likely to be shot at? Does the presence of an armed officer in all routine traffic stop increase safety overall (not just for the officer, but for non-violent civilians as well). If you look at it from a cost benefit analysis, giving all traffic cops firearms may result in a small decrease in total deaths of officers during traffic stops [1], but a small increase in the total number of deaths of civilians (both innocent bystanders, and belligerent civilians who had no intention to seriously harm anyone). That's probably not enough to justify arming all traffic cops. However if you add in the benefit of a firearm as a tool of compliance to aid in traffic cop's abilities to confiscate drugs and cash, you tip the balance towards arming them. 1. Even this is a big assumption, because we don't know if criminals are more or less likely to fire at armed vs. unarmed traffic cops.

JeffL 10y ago

But without the war on drugs, the number of bad guys goes way down, doesn't it?

learc83 10y ago
That's an excellent point. Some percentage of the criminals who shoot at cops during traffic stops are doing so because they don't want to get caught with the drugs they are carrying.
tptacek 10y ago
Probably not. Contrary to popular perception, the drug war is not a major factor in incarceration in the US. We do incarcerate thousands of people for drug crimes, and we do need to radically reform drug prohibition, but "ending the drug war" will have only a marginal impact.
- dragonwriter 10y ago
  > Contrary to popular perception, the drug war is not a major factor in incarceration in the US. 46.3% of federal prisoners (nearly 85,000) are imprisoned for drug offenses -- not quite an absolute majority, but nearly triple the next highest category (Weapons, Explosives, and Arson.) [0] Fairly recently, it was only 17% for state prisons [1], which is still quite significant -- about 1 in 6. But both of those understate the degree to which the drug war drives imprisonment, because drug crimes (which tend to have a shorter sentence than violent crimes) account for nearly 1/3 of prison admissions, despite accounting for a lower share of total prison population. [1] [0] https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_offenses.jsp https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_offen... [1] http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/social-mobility-memos/posts/2015/11/25-drug-offenders-stock-flow-prisons-rothwell http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/social-mobility-memos/posts/2...
  - tptacek 10y ago
    Federal prison inmates make up less than 8% of all incarcerated persons in the US. The overwhelming majority of all prisoners in the US are in state prisons, and they aren't imprisoned for drug crimes. The Pfaff survey study shows that most of them haven't ever been imprisoned for a drug crime.
    - dragonwriter 10y ago
      Nothing in your post contradicts, or even addresses, anything either in my post, or the point it responds to from upthread. The contention upthread was that "Contrary to popular perception, the drug war is not a major factor in incarceration in the US." Drug offenses alone (and the drug war produces, and includes imprisonment for, other, non-drug offenses) account for about 1/6 of the total prison population and 1/3 of total prison admissions (sources addressed in my previous post in this subthread.) Ending the drug war -- even if you consider only drug offenses, would eliminate a significant share of the total prison population, and a much larger share of total prison admissions. The facts clearly show that, while drug offenses alone are not the majority of incarceration in the US (either by population or admissions), the Drug War is a very significant contributor to incarceration in the US.