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That's not a good application of Ockham's razor, it's not about which explanations sound simple, and you need priors. If I gave you some data saying that teleco
by trishume 10y ago
That's not a good application of Ockham's razor, it's not about which explanations sound simple, and you need priors. If I gave you some data saying that telecom industry sales have been correlated to GDP for decades and suddenly telecom industry sales dropped 40%, GDP dropping 40% is really unlikely and you wouldn't guess that. 40% is huge
- jknoepfler 10y agoCompletely agreed. A 40% decline in real tech-hiring rates would be a shocking, sudden decline. The simpler, most consistent, and most likely explanation is that the author's data isn't representative of the big picture. It's very similar to "my helloworld.c won't compile, the compiler must be broken"
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- mark-r 10y ago40% drop in GDP is huge, you're right. 40% drop in open job listings isn't huge, because it's not the same as overall employment. I'm quite sure we've had drops like that before, although I don't have any references at the moment to back it up. Edit: if the author has only been in the business a couple of years, he may not be aware of the historical boom/bust nature of it - yet.