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Other factors should be considered. For example, it is not a random sampling. Polices target those who are statistically more likely to be positive, according t
by justicezyx 10y ago
Other factors should be considered. For example, it is not a random sampling. Polices target those who are statistically more likely to be positive, according to their empirical or historical statistics.
- mikeash 10y agoI think that's already accounted for in my hpothetical, as those are factors that might bring a 33.2% rate up to 99%.
- bryondowd 10y agoDepends how good of a filter the police are using. Even if they are only targeting people who are 10 times as likely to be users as the general population in the above example, that only brings the accuracy to about 84%. And I'd wager their filtering isn't that good. What exactly are they using to determine who is a likely user? Are those people really more likely at all, and if so, how much? I expect it would be highly optimistic to even assume a person targeted by police is even three times as likely as the general population to be in possession of drugs, which would only be about 60%
- analog31 10y agoIndeed, the person could be less likely. From what I've read, affluent whites have the highest rates of illegal drug use, but the police direct their enforcement efforts towards blacks.