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Welcome to the age of “Big Software”

x2398dh1 10y ago
Software does not physically exist in the real world - it's just a recipe. Pharmaceuticals, having chemistry as its underlying dependent science, required fundamental research to uncover the physiological properties of certain materials, the majority of the low-hanging fruits of which were discovered in the late 1800s because that was the time in history at which cheap instrumentation became available. For software, new forms of electronics and systems create a technological feedback loop, which may continue to become available for many hundreds of years, if Michio Kaku is to be believed. If we grant that this will happen, we can keep writing new recipes on top of those new systems for hundreds of years. Now, you might say at some point that these new systems are no longer, "software," but then the argument from the article would kind of be reaching and making things up as it goes along, therefore not really saying anything. You can't just take one technological movement and extrapolate its history on top of another. The Stone Age lasted about 6000 years, and then the Bronze age lasted around 1000 years. Nothing about the Stone Age predicted anything about what the Bronze Age would be like - it's more about the underlying physics of the technology itself, and the speed at which humans can build on top of that underlying physics given the current state of technology, and how the new technology generated feeds back onto itself.
- replicatorblog 10y ago
  Fair points, but I'd counter by pointing out how the VR/AR landscape seems to be shaking out. Google, Microsoft, Apple, HTC, Sony, Facebook, Samsung, and Snapchat are all investing heavily in VR. Magic Leap is really the only independent company pursuing the tech. Now maybe there will be a startup to come out of left field, but I doubt it. The incumbents just have too much leverage. Like the pharma companies that discovered the "low-hanging fruit" software companies have done the same. Facebook is the default address book. Amazon's multi-level logistics advantage will be hard to beat. It's not to say that they won't face competition, but they'll be able to buy them out—or clone the products. Lets assume VR/AR isn't the next meaningful battlefield and it's self-driving cars. Who is going to win? Google and Apple are both clearly investing here. Tesla and Uber could make a case, though Apple could buy either rather comfortably. GM acquiring Cruise is a great example of the theory in operation. I'm not saying the theory is airtight, and I don't think it means we won't see new companies emerge, but rather, that the pillars of ecosystem are set.

Software does not physically exist in the real world - it's just a recipe. Pharmaceuticals, having chemistry as its underlying dependent science, required fundamental research to uncover the physiological properties of certain materials, the majority of the low-hanging fruits of which were discovered in the late 1800s because that was the time in history at which cheap instrumentation became available. For software, new forms of electronics and systems create a technological feedback loop, which may continue to become available for many hundreds of years, if Michio Kaku is to be believed. If we grant that this will happen, we can keep writing new recipes on top of those new systems for hundreds of years. Now, you might say at some point that these new systems are no longer, "software," but then the argument from the article would kind of be reaching and making things up as it goes along, therefore not really saying anything. You can't just take one technological movement and extrapolate its history on top of another. The Stone Age lasted about 6000 years, and then the Bronze age lasted around 1000 years. Nothing about the Stone Age predicted anything about what the Bronze Age would be like - it's more about the underlying physics of the technology itself, and the speed at which humans can build on top of that underlying physics given the current state of technology, and how the new technology generated feeds back onto itself.

replicatorblog 10y ago
Fair points, but I'd counter by pointing out how the VR/AR landscape seems to be shaking out. Google, Microsoft, Apple, HTC, Sony, Facebook, Samsung, and Snapchat are all investing heavily in VR. Magic Leap is really the only independent company pursuing the tech. Now maybe there will be a startup to come out of left field, but I doubt it. The incumbents just have too much leverage. Like the pharma companies that discovered the "low-hanging fruit" software companies have done the same. Facebook is the default address book. Amazon's multi-level logistics advantage will be hard to beat. It's not to say that they won't face competition, but they'll be able to buy them out—or clone the products. Lets assume VR/AR isn't the next meaningful battlefield and it's self-driving cars. Who is going to win? Google and Apple are both clearly investing here. Tesla and Uber could make a case, though Apple could buy either rather comfortably. GM acquiring Cruise is a great example of the theory in operation. I'm not saying the theory is airtight, and I don't think it means we won't see new companies emerge, but rather, that the pillars of ecosystem are set.