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I think usa is going for civil war like this. Violence spiral that will get worse. Remember what the last civil war was about? Also media censorship will contri

by boot82050 10y ago

I think usa is going for civil war like this. Violence spiral that will get worse. Remember what the last civil war was about? Also media censorship will contribute to the distrust. BBC yesterday had much better coverage of the situation than fox and cnn combined.

venomsnake 10y ago
Civil War will be possible only if low boiling. Lots and lots of domestic terrorism. There are no groups even united that could stand up to the Federal government. And the USG is strong enough to subdue any two groups that decide to war with each other.
- boot82050 10y ago
  Well i think it will look a bit different in modern times, more like a peer to peer structure, without one point of failure Like you see with terrorist groups, small autonomous groups. A war that you cannot win as a government (irak, afganistan etc..)because there is no single fronline, the war is all over the place.
  - eru 10y ago
    Terrorist groups are not very effective. See https://www.gwern.net/Terrorism%20is%20not%20about%20Terror https://www.gwern.net/Terrorism%20is%20not%20about%20Terror and https://www.gwern.net/Terrorism%20is%20not%20Effective https://www.gwern.net/Terrorism%20is%20not%20Effective
    - boot82050 10y ago
      Thanks for the link, interesting read. After reading this i don't get how these wars could be lost...
      - eru 10y ago
        Insurgents are different than terrorist groups, I think?
- zipwitch 10y ago
  Ending low-intensity conflict within the United States is not going to be achieved by pure force. At least not by any level of force that can be practically applied. Dominant factors will lean more towards public relations, resilience, and good OODA loops. These are not areas at which the US Federal Government excels. Attempts to remedy such situations with overwhelming force will only serve to exacerbate them. I'll guess that the next two decades (or less) will see a phase change in the nature of US governance, even if the superficial forms remain the same.

venomsnake 10y ago

Civil War will be possible only if low boiling. Lots and lots of domestic terrorism. There are no groups even united that could stand up to the Federal government. And the USG is strong enough to subdue any two groups that decide to war with each other.

boot82050 10y ago
Well i think it will look a bit different in modern times, more like a peer to peer structure, without one point of failure Like you see with terrorist groups, small autonomous groups. A war that you cannot win as a government (irak, afganistan etc..)because there is no single fronline, the war is all over the place.
- eru 10y ago
  Terrorist groups are not very effective. See https://www.gwern.net/Terrorism%20is%20not%20about%20Terror https://www.gwern.net/Terrorism%20is%20not%20about%20Terror and https://www.gwern.net/Terrorism%20is%20not%20Effective https://www.gwern.net/Terrorism%20is%20not%20Effective
  - boot82050 10y ago
    Thanks for the link, interesting read. After reading this i don't get how these wars could be lost...
    - eru 10y ago
      Insurgents are different than terrorist groups, I think?
zipwitch 10y ago
Ending low-intensity conflict within the United States is not going to be achieved by pure force. At least not by any level of force that can be practically applied. Dominant factors will lean more towards public relations, resilience, and good OODA loops. These are not areas at which the US Federal Government excels. Attempts to remedy such situations with overwhelming force will only serve to exacerbate them. I'll guess that the next two decades (or less) will see a phase change in the nature of US governance, even if the superficial forms remain the same.