5 ms·

Don't think so, India is typically 4 stroke because of pollution norms and 4 strokes are more fuel efficient which we're very sensitive to. Frankly, India's pr

by kartD 10y ago

Don't think so, India is typically 4 stroke because of pollution norms and 4 strokes are more fuel efficient which we're very sensitive to. Frankly, India's problem can only be fixed by population control. If Sanjay Gandhi hadn't been an idiot and forever poisoned the idea of population control, India would be much better off, especially if we can get the population to around 300M - 500M

mc32 10y ago
I agree pop growth is an issue... But asking the pop to drop by two thirds is out of bounds. You cannot get that drop without natural decline over many generations or some kind of dreadful calamity. Natural decrease will happen but over generations, with the expected economic consequences of fewer people contributing to an economy. Maybe Japan can show the way, but so far, they are still basing their economy on growth which is incongruous with their demographics and it hasn't worked out too well and seems to be headed towards deterioration, barring external changes (like importing young people).
- LoSboccacc 10y ago
  some decade of this pollution and will happen either way
- kartD 10y ago
  Unfortunately, resource war may likely force this to happen. It is not environmentally feasible to support such a large population with a high standard of living and being environmentally friendly. Frankly, the whole world is going to have to get in line.
- hx87 10y ago
  I find strange this whole idea that economic growth requires population growth. Why can't each person, aided by automation, simply produce and consume more?
  - rhinadash 10y ago
    why not both?
jdietrich 10y ago
There are still a lot of older two-stroke engines in use. Four-stroke engines from local and Chinese manufacturers are typically crude air-cooled carbureted designs with very high emissions. A modern European motorcycle might produce 20x lower emissions than a typical Indian bike thanks to much stricter regulations.
- kartD 10y ago
  Any references on this? I think most engines are Indian manufactured and India uses emission norms based on European regulation [0] Would be interested to see any data. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharat_Stage_emission_standards https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharat_Stage_emission_standard...
  - gajjanag 10y ago
    You are right in general, but note that for instance there are still many 2 stroke auto rickshaws: http://www.autocarpro.in/news-national/karnataka-ban-polluting-stroke-autos-bangalore-8141 http://www.autocarpro.in/news-national/karnataka-ban-polluti.... Typically, the game goes as follows: new laws get drafted, local groups such as auto rickshaw unions get together and demand time/cash incentives to move to more expensive, cleaner equipment, local governments grant extensions, and the cycle repeats. Then there are the general issues plaguing enforcement in India, which are listed in the wikipedia article.
  - jdietrich 10y ago
    The regulations are almost meaningless because of corruption. A majority of drivers in India never took a test - they simply bribed an official to receive a license. Only a fool would pay the Rs 20,000 fee for a commercial vehicle roadworthiness test when the certificate can simply be bought for Rs 1,500. It's easier and cheaper to pay bribes than to work through the official bureaucracy. http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/marianne.bertrand/research/papers/corruption_driving_india_qje.pdf http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/marianne.bertrand/research/p... http://siteresources.worldbank.org/PAKISTANEXTN/Resources/UrbanAir/MainReport.pdf http://siteresources.worldbank.org/PAKISTANEXTN/Resources/Ur... http://thewire.in/16474/why-swacch-bharat-type-schemes-will-fail-in-india/ http://thewire.in/16474/why-swacch-bharat-type-schemes-will-...
kamaal 10y ago
>>India's problem can only be fixed by population control. And with tax accountability. >>If Sanjay Gandhi hadn't been an idiot and forever poisoned the idea of population control, India would be much better off, especially if we can get the population to around 300M - 500M Wrong solutions lead to mistakes from which it is hard to recover. The ideal solution was industrialization and planned urbanization. Urban population levels today have largely stabilized, and in places steadily falling. Most couples these days don't have more than one kid. So really we will see a decline in population levels as standard of living, and urbanization levels increase. This is a long term solution, there is no short term solution.
- kartD 10y ago
  I hope you're right and I'd really love for it to happen. Btw, can you explain the tax accountability part, I'm not really sure I understand what you're trying to say there?
  - kamaal 10y ago
    Fixing tax accountability mandates fixing income accountability. Once that is done corruption will become impossible. Best bet currently is cashless transactions. The more we have them, the better. If some one has more than explainable income in the bank they will be forced to show that up in tax returns, if its legal they will have to pay taxes, if its illegal then they face action. Cash transactions are at the core of why everyday corruption is even possible. Liquid cash is easy to exchange without traceability.
    - kartD 10y ago
      Makes a lot of sense. I complete agree. Thanks for the explanation.

by kartD 10y ago

mc32 10y ago

I agree pop growth is an issue... But asking the pop to drop by two thirds is out of bounds. You cannot get that drop without natural decline over many generations or some kind of dreadful calamity. Natural decrease will happen but over generations, with the expected economic consequences of fewer people contributing to an economy. Maybe Japan can show the way, but so far, they are still basing their economy on growth which is incongruous with their demographics and it hasn't worked out too well and seems to be headed towards deterioration, barring external changes (like importing young people).

LoSboccacc 10y ago
some decade of this pollution and will happen either way
kartD 10y ago
Unfortunately, resource war may likely force this to happen. It is not environmentally feasible to support such a large population with a high standard of living and being environmentally friendly. Frankly, the whole world is going to have to get in line.
hx87 10y ago
I find strange this whole idea that economic growth requires population growth. Why can't each person, aided by automation, simply produce and consume more?
- rhinadash 10y ago
  why not both?

jdietrich 10y ago

There are still a lot of older two-stroke engines in use. Four-stroke engines from local and Chinese manufacturers are typically crude air-cooled carbureted designs with very high emissions. A modern European motorcycle might produce 20x lower emissions than a typical Indian bike thanks to much stricter regulations.

kartD 10y ago
Any references on this? I think most engines are Indian manufactured and India uses emission norms based on European regulation [0] Would be interested to see any data. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharat_Stage_emission_standards https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharat_Stage_emission_standard...
- gajjanag 10y ago
  You are right in general, but note that for instance there are still many 2 stroke auto rickshaws: http://www.autocarpro.in/news-national/karnataka-ban-polluting-stroke-autos-bangalore-8141 http://www.autocarpro.in/news-national/karnataka-ban-polluti.... Typically, the game goes as follows: new laws get drafted, local groups such as auto rickshaw unions get together and demand time/cash incentives to move to more expensive, cleaner equipment, local governments grant extensions, and the cycle repeats. Then there are the general issues plaguing enforcement in India, which are listed in the wikipedia article.
- jdietrich 10y ago
  The regulations are almost meaningless because of corruption. A majority of drivers in India never took a test - they simply bribed an official to receive a license. Only a fool would pay the Rs 20,000 fee for a commercial vehicle roadworthiness test when the certificate can simply be bought for Rs 1,500. It's easier and cheaper to pay bribes than to work through the official bureaucracy. http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/marianne.bertrand/research/papers/corruption_driving_india_qje.pdf http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/marianne.bertrand/research/p... http://siteresources.worldbank.org/PAKISTANEXTN/Resources/UrbanAir/MainReport.pdf http://siteresources.worldbank.org/PAKISTANEXTN/Resources/Ur... http://thewire.in/16474/why-swacch-bharat-type-schemes-will-fail-in-india/ http://thewire.in/16474/why-swacch-bharat-type-schemes-will-...

kamaal 10y ago

>>India's problem can only be fixed by population control. And with tax accountability. >>If Sanjay Gandhi hadn't been an idiot and forever poisoned the idea of population control, India would be much better off, especially if we can get the population to around 300M - 500M Wrong solutions lead to mistakes from which it is hard to recover. The ideal solution was industrialization and planned urbanization. Urban population levels today have largely stabilized, and in places steadily falling. Most couples these days don't have more than one kid. So really we will see a decline in population levels as standard of living, and urbanization levels increase. This is a long term solution, there is no short term solution.

kartD 10y ago
I hope you're right and I'd really love for it to happen. Btw, can you explain the tax accountability part, I'm not really sure I understand what you're trying to say there?
- kamaal 10y ago
  Fixing tax accountability mandates fixing income accountability. Once that is done corruption will become impossible. Best bet currently is cashless transactions. The more we have them, the better. If some one has more than explainable income in the bank they will be forced to show that up in tax returns, if its legal they will have to pay taxes, if its illegal then they face action. Cash transactions are at the core of why everyday corruption is even possible. Liquid cash is easy to exchange without traceability.
  - kartD 10y ago
    Makes a lot of sense. I complete agree. Thanks for the explanation.