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> This will dilute the (understandable) feeling of betraying for Referendum voters, especially if during the intervening period media and UE will scare people i

> This will dilute the (understandable) feeling of betraying for Referendum voters, especially if during the intervening period media and UE will scare people in believing that an actual Brexit would be a catastrophe. I am not confident the government won't plot its way out of Brexit but I am confident that politics will take on a new character if they defy the outcome of the vote. After all it was the largest vote by numbers in the history of the state. This was an historic victory, and a complete one, by a group that has rarely had its opinion accepted as valid in the media or government. If you dismiss their vote they have nothing left. This is an important point! There is nowhere else to turn. There is no way to get their desired policy enacted democratically or by playing the game. UKIP had one MP. One! http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/i-loathe-ukip-one-mp-3-9-million-votes-national-disgrace-1501080 http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/i-loathe-ukip-one-mp-3-9-million-vo... Media propaganda will not work. Neither the Trump support nor the Brexit Leave voters give it any credibility. Surely you have noticed this. That is why the prediction machines appear to be broken. That tool is no longer functional for anything except stroking the neurosis of the middle class. If I were a mischievous person I would wonder if that were always the case. The Exit camp do not care what happens to the economy either, not in the short term. They are not sitting down and biting their fingernails about share prices or house prices. For them this is primarily about dignity, their pride in their British identity and national sovereignty. Repudiating that as xenophobia/fascism and then defying a democratic outcome is interesting. A reasonable person would wonder if perhaps the people were bored and sought wish fulfillment of some kind from the drama of history. Thinking this will pass off peacefully is delusional. You cannot back so much as a dog into a corner and hyperventilate if it bites you. The British police are more likely to join the Exit rioters than stop them. They hold identical views to the working class because they are the same people. The best they will do for civil order is call a 'sickie'. That means this escalates promptly. The riots of 2011 were only based on a few thousand people and it seemed like half of London was on fire at the time, imagine the 2016 riots with 10x to 100x that number, not looking for shops to loot, but heads to crack. Now I prepare for my daily allotment of downvotes for saying the obvious. You can play with internet points, you can flag me or even ban me, but the fact remains that defying this vote is a dangerous move. I lived in a British housing estate for years, I think I know how they think. My prediction is conservative, but if I told you everything I know I would be dismissed as scaremongering. The middle class left wing always protest, always are on the streets. For some of them it is an occupation, for others it is more about free expression. They have packed lunches and t-shirts for the occasion. Do you ever remember a right wing protest? I mean outside of political rallies of course, that is not protest. They are quite unusual as protests go, because they are so rare. Have you noticed how sheepish and amateurish the PEGIDA protesters seem? They are not used to this. So. If you do get to see a mass protest of the right in your lifetime, be prepared, because this time it will be serious.

DanBC 10y ago
> and a complete one The UK has a population of about 63m. 46m of those could vote. 30m of those did vote. 17.5m of those voted to leave. That's 52% of the turnout; 38% of the electorate; 25% of the population. They won the ballot, but I wish they'd stop saying "a majority of the country voted for Leave" when only a quarter of the country voted leave.
- internaut 10y ago
  By complete I meant in terms of satisfaction for the Exit camp, obviously roughly half the country disagreed with them. On the numbers, I don't think you'd get a higher turnout without Australian style voting. Voter apathy had been increasing for a long time (clearly seen in the statistics where half the kippers expected the vote to be rigged against them) so a turnout this high was quite an exertion for both sides.
Pamar 10y ago
First of all: I was not saying that this is necessarily the best choice, or that I endorse Remain or Leave. I was just trying to explain what - from what I read so far - seems the most probable strategy for the next months. Also, while the economic results of the Leave might be exaggerated (as part of the same strategy I was explaining) do you think that Leave supporters have properly considered the risks of splintering UK (Scotland, Northern Ireland and possibly Wales deciding to get independence)?
- internaut 10y ago
  > First of all: I was not saying that this is necessarily the best choice, or that I endorse Remain or Leave. Oh I understand, my post is mostly aimed at those who appear to believe defying the vote result will be just shrugged off as if it were just another case of politics. The working classes are quite hard to politicize, but once they are involved it is like a train speeding up on a track. The middle classes tend to have, ah, more flexible opinions and less conviction about the world and their beliefs shall we say. This isn't good or bad for either case, it's just so. I think the chattering classes are underestimating the effects of a backlash because they themselves are more flexible / less committed and their (wrong) intuition that everybody else is the same. Sure there are lots of enthusiastic and firm believers of <political paradigm> in the middle class, but they are a minority. Most middle class people will eventually accommodate the idea of a Britain without the EU. The working classes will not respond in the same way, because once they commit to a political ideal it is much harder to shift them. That's a grudge that's never going away, even if there somehow magically was no rioting. > I was just trying to explain what - from what I read so far - seems the most probable strategy for the next months. That would be my hunch too. Looks like we're about to enter interesting times. > Also, while the economic results of the Leave might be exaggerated (as part of the same strategy I was explaining) do you think that Leave supporters have properly considered the risks of splintering UK (Scotland, Northern Ireland and possibly Wales deciding to get independence)? No. I don't even think the Remain side considered this proper or they would have emphasized it much more in their propaganda instead of economics. However Scotland wants to leave anyway, Brexit is more of an pretext for that than a cause. I am confident Wales and Northern Ireland will stay with England. Politically speaking the Scots and Home Counties don't have a lot in common, the South is much more right wing than the North, so I don't think a 'deal' ameliorates the situation if it succeeds in Scotland staying and Britain stays in the EU. I suspect, and I'm not very sure of this, this is just a guess, that the EU officials are going to deny Scotland entry to the EU even if they become an independent state which will piss them off no end (this is to prevent a precedent setting off country fragmentation in Europe e.g. Catalonia). I think the closing of ranks against Juncker has something to do with this. Then an olive branch will be offered to the British. Obviously there's quite a gap between the cup and lip here so we'll have to wait and see.

DanBC 10y ago

> and a complete one The UK has a population of about 63m. 46m of those could vote. 30m of those did vote. 17.5m of those voted to leave. That's 52% of the turnout; 38% of the electorate; 25% of the population. They won the ballot, but I wish they'd stop saying "a majority of the country voted for Leave" when only a quarter of the country voted leave.

internaut 10y ago
By complete I meant in terms of satisfaction for the Exit camp, obviously roughly half the country disagreed with them. On the numbers, I don't think you'd get a higher turnout without Australian style voting. Voter apathy had been increasing for a long time (clearly seen in the statistics where half the kippers expected the vote to be rigged against them) so a turnout this high was quite an exertion for both sides.

Pamar 10y ago

First of all: I was not saying that this is necessarily the best choice, or that I endorse Remain or Leave. I was just trying to explain what - from what I read so far - seems the most probable strategy for the next months. Also, while the economic results of the Leave might be exaggerated (as part of the same strategy I was explaining) do you think that Leave supporters have properly considered the risks of splintering UK (Scotland, Northern Ireland and possibly Wales deciding to get independence)?

internaut 10y ago
> First of all: I was not saying that this is necessarily the best choice, or that I endorse Remain or Leave. Oh I understand, my post is mostly aimed at those who appear to believe defying the vote result will be just shrugged off as if it were just another case of politics. The working classes are quite hard to politicize, but once they are involved it is like a train speeding up on a track. The middle classes tend to have, ah, more flexible opinions and less conviction about the world and their beliefs shall we say. This isn't good or bad for either case, it's just so. I think the chattering classes are underestimating the effects of a backlash because they themselves are more flexible / less committed and their (wrong) intuition that everybody else is the same. Sure there are lots of enthusiastic and firm believers of <political paradigm> in the middle class, but they are a minority. Most middle class people will eventually accommodate the idea of a Britain without the EU. The working classes will not respond in the same way, because once they commit to a political ideal it is much harder to shift them. That's a grudge that's never going away, even if there somehow magically was no rioting. > I was just trying to explain what - from what I read so far - seems the most probable strategy for the next months. That would be my hunch too. Looks like we're about to enter interesting times. > Also, while the economic results of the Leave might be exaggerated (as part of the same strategy I was explaining) do you think that Leave supporters have properly considered the risks of splintering UK (Scotland, Northern Ireland and possibly Wales deciding to get independence)? No. I don't even think the Remain side considered this proper or they would have emphasized it much more in their propaganda instead of economics. However Scotland wants to leave anyway, Brexit is more of an pretext for that than a cause. I am confident Wales and Northern Ireland will stay with England. Politically speaking the Scots and Home Counties don't have a lot in common, the South is much more right wing than the North, so I don't think a 'deal' ameliorates the situation if it succeeds in Scotland staying and Britain stays in the EU. I suspect, and I'm not very sure of this, this is just a guess, that the EU officials are going to deny Scotland entry to the EU even if they become an independent state which will piss them off no end (this is to prevent a precedent setting off country fragmentation in Europe e.g. Catalonia). I think the closing of ranks against Juncker has something to do with this. Then an olive branch will be offered to the British. Obviously there's quite a gap between the cup and lip here so we'll have to wait and see.