4 ms·

What's dead about its main product? From a monetization and innovation point of view, it seems about as dead as, say, Google's search product.

dredmorbius 10y ago
http://www.paulgraham.com/microsoft.html http://www.paulgraham.com/microsoft.html
mooreds 10y ago
Right. I worked at a company that did advertising data brokering and there were really three categories: Google, Facebook, and the best of the Internet. (This was a year or so ago and the company was focused on the US market.)
cft 10y ago
Money is a very lagging metric. Young users left (13-17yo often do not even have facebook, and certainly do not post), and more and more of older people are dropping out. It used to be cool to post on FB, now it's cool not to post there.
- morgante 10y ago
  This is a false meme which needs to die. Facebook has more users than ever before. It continues to add users at a health pace. Moreover, the people who quit Facebook actually tend to be older, not younger.
  - cft 10y ago
    Adding users in India and Philippines, losing users in the US and UK. It will burn through those new users too in time.
    - morgante 10y ago
      Facebook continues to grow domestically. [0] If you want to continue to asset the eminent collapse of Facebook, please bring data. [0] http://www.statista.com/statistics/408971/number-of-us-facebook-users/ http://www.statista.com/statistics/408971/number-of-us-faceb...
      - cft 10y ago
        Only FB knows the real data, everything else are just guesses. They have to present some data on their quarterly reports, but the definitions that they use are fairly flexible. So it's my hearsay/belief versus yours, unless you work at FB and have direct access to this information (your profile seems to say otherwise?) Here are some other hearsay links: http://venturebeat.com/2015/02/27/facebooks-active-users-arent-so-active-anymore-says-survey-data/ http://venturebeat.com/2015/02/27/facebooks-active-users-are... "Facebook’s definition of an active user is now so broad that you can do very little on the site and still be counted within its figures. Secondly, and just as importantly, GlobalWebIndex’s data shows that, while Facebook’s active user numbers are undergoing consistent declines, its member and visitor numbers are either holding steady or increasing. Clearly, we have a large group of Facebookers who are checking the site but not actually contributing to it" Or even: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=facebook&cmpt=q&tz=Etc%2FGMT%2B7 https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=facebook&cmpt=q&tz=E... (note the countries below the chart). Contrast this with https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F0nbtf_n https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F0nbtf_n
        morgante 10y ago
        When you have to turn to Google Trends to try to support your point, it's a pretty flimsy point. If we believed your data, then 2012 would be the high water mark for Facebook usage (globally), which is obviously false when you look at actual user numbers released by Facebook. A much better explanation for the decline in searches is the shift to mobile, where people actually have the app installed and hence don't search to find the website. The VentureBeat article is obviously anecdotal and relying on poor data. Doom and gloom all you want, but the only real numbers we have (from Facebook) directly contradict your view. If you're trying to force the data to fit your hypothesis, it's usually a sign that your hypothesis is wrong.

dredmorbius 10y ago

http://www.paulgraham.com/microsoft.html http://www.paulgraham.com/microsoft.html

mooreds 10y ago

Right. I worked at a company that did advertising data brokering and there were really three categories: Google, Facebook, and the best of the Internet. (This was a year or so ago and the company was focused on the US market.)

cft 10y ago

Money is a very lagging metric. Young users left (13-17yo often do not even have facebook, and certainly do not post), and more and more of older people are dropping out. It used to be cool to post on FB, now it's cool not to post there.

morgante 10y ago
This is a false meme which needs to die. Facebook has more users than ever before. It continues to add users at a health pace. Moreover, the people who quit Facebook actually tend to be older, not younger.
- cft 10y ago
  Adding users in India and Philippines, losing users in the US and UK. It will burn through those new users too in time.
  - morgante 10y ago
    Facebook continues to grow domestically. [0] If you want to continue to asset the eminent collapse of Facebook, please bring data. [0] http://www.statista.com/statistics/408971/number-of-us-facebook-users/ http://www.statista.com/statistics/408971/number-of-us-faceb...
    - cft 10y ago
      Only FB knows the real data, everything else are just guesses. They have to present some data on their quarterly reports, but the definitions that they use are fairly flexible. So it's my hearsay/belief versus yours, unless you work at FB and have direct access to this information (your profile seems to say otherwise?) Here are some other hearsay links: http://venturebeat.com/2015/02/27/facebooks-active-users-arent-so-active-anymore-says-survey-data/ http://venturebeat.com/2015/02/27/facebooks-active-users-are... "Facebook’s definition of an active user is now so broad that you can do very little on the site and still be counted within its figures. Secondly, and just as importantly, GlobalWebIndex’s data shows that, while Facebook’s active user numbers are undergoing consistent declines, its member and visitor numbers are either holding steady or increasing. Clearly, we have a large group of Facebookers who are checking the site but not actually contributing to it" Or even: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=facebook&cmpt=q&tz=Etc%2FGMT%2B7 https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=facebook&cmpt=q&tz=E... (note the countries below the chart). Contrast this with https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F0nbtf_n https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F0nbtf_n
      - morgante 10y ago
        When you have to turn to Google Trends to try to support your point, it's a pretty flimsy point. If we believed your data, then 2012 would be the high water mark for Facebook usage (globally), which is obviously false when you look at actual user numbers released by Facebook. A much better explanation for the decline in searches is the shift to mobile, where people actually have the app installed and hence don't search to find the website. The VentureBeat article is obviously anecdotal and relying on poor data. Doom and gloom all you want, but the only real numbers we have (from Facebook) directly contradict your view. If you're trying to force the data to fit your hypothesis, it's usually a sign that your hypothesis is wrong.