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I would recommend the book Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages [0] by scholar Carlotta Perez. She studies l
by axplusb 10y ago
I would recommend the book Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages [0] by scholar Carlotta Perez.
She studies longer cycles though (~50 years) but the mechanism she describes seems pretty sound for the matter at hand.
It goes more or less like this:
- capital in search for long term returns goes to early moves of a big technological shift
- as successes from the new technology get more and more apparent, it attracts a much larger slice of capital available, and eventually gets over-funded (the real opportunity of this technology is limited)
- a bubble forms, most capital is in for a quick speculative return
- back to square one with a new technology (and former bubble bursts)
[0] https://www.amazon.com/Technological-Revolutions-Financial-Capital-Dynamics/dp/1843763311 https://www.amazon.com/Technological-Revolutions-Financial-C...
- dredmorbius 10y agoAn excellent if obscure book. Interesting to find another fan. I'm not convinced she's right, I think she's more right than most, and she's definitely interesting and well-researched.