4 ms·

If you are a student of history, you start seeing these things. I was in tech in 1995, and at the start of the Internet boom it was not obvious to everyone what

by tostitos1979 10y ago

If you are a student of history, you start seeing these things. I was in tech in 1995, and at the start of the Internet boom it was not obvious to everyone what was happening. You should read Bill Gate's "The road ahead". He (and many others) predicted things like Netflix and the information super highway but they got the delivery mechanism dead wrong - people were convinced it was going to be over cable TV networks. I've heard similar things about the boom/bust days of Commodore in the mid-80s. I agree with the general thesis that (a) people are searching for the next big thing, and (b) we'll likely get it wrong a few times.

basseq 10y ago
The challenge is when people start to try and predict the next cycle and what it will look like. Yes, you can get the broad brush-strokes right, but details are usually very wrong and timing is way off.
- reysc 10y ago
  Glad that painting is here to stay.
selmat 10y ago
Have you any good resources for recommendation?
nickt 10y ago
In Kevin Kellys new book, The Inevitable [1], he talks about the trends and long-term forces that push and pull the actual implementations and delivery mechanisms of new technology. I'd suggest that understanding the themes narrow down the search area for the Next Big Thing. [1] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/27209431-the-inevitable https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/27209431-the-inevitable
amyjess 10y ago
> He (and many others) predicted things like Netflix and the information super highway but they got the delivery mechanism dead wrong - people were convinced it was going to be over cable TV networks. Oh yes, I remember how around 1994 people were predicting the rise of "interactive TV" that would take over the world in 1997. The descriptions of what "interactive TV" would do were very similar to the web.
- VLM 10y ago
  The immediate predecessor of that was the multimedia CDROM. Its all the same idea and same skills of course. The course curricula for a BSCS with a specialization in multimedia in 1993 is identical to webdev in 2016 except for obvious language syntax differences. Graphic arts/design classes from the art school, marketing classes from the biz school, a couple programming classes, etc.
  - tostitos1979 10y ago
    Ha .. almost forgot that one. Do you remember Encarta? Wikipedia of the old days :)
dboreham 10y ago
Um...for the most part it IS delivered over cable tv networks.

basseq 10y ago

The challenge is when people start to try and predict the next cycle and what it will look like. Yes, you can get the broad brush-strokes right, but details are usually very wrong and timing is way off.

reysc 10y ago
Glad that painting is here to stay.

selmat 10y ago

Have you any good resources for recommendation?

nickt 10y ago

In Kevin Kellys new book, The Inevitable [1], he talks about the trends and long-term forces that push and pull the actual implementations and delivery mechanisms of new technology. I'd suggest that understanding the themes narrow down the search area for the Next Big Thing. [1] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/27209431-the-inevitable https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/27209431-the-inevitable

amyjess 10y ago

> He (and many others) predicted things like Netflix and the information super highway but they got the delivery mechanism dead wrong - people were convinced it was going to be over cable TV networks. Oh yes, I remember how around 1994 people were predicting the rise of "interactive TV" that would take over the world in 1997. The descriptions of what "interactive TV" would do were very similar to the web.

VLM 10y ago
The immediate predecessor of that was the multimedia CDROM. Its all the same idea and same skills of course. The course curricula for a BSCS with a specialization in multimedia in 1993 is identical to webdev in 2016 except for obvious language syntax differences. Graphic arts/design classes from the art school, marketing classes from the biz school, a couple programming classes, etc.
- tostitos1979 10y ago
  Ha .. almost forgot that one. Do you remember Encarta? Wikipedia of the old days :)

dboreham 10y ago

Um...for the most part it IS delivered over cable tv networks.