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Well up until recently, Japan had the number 2 economy in the world. China just recently passed them so now it's all about China. Due to their population size,
by mahranch 10y ago
Well up until recently, Japan had the number 2 economy in the world. China just recently passed them so now it's all about China.
Due to their population size, there's a lot of potential but their economy is a giant mess. There are many separate huge bubbles forming in China right now, some larger than the U.S's largest economic bubble. Real estate and banking among them. Only, instead of popping organically as happens in every other economic system, the PRC has complete control of every facet so they just don't let it pop. Which causes it to grow even bigger. And that means when it does burst, it's going to come down a lot harder. They're putting off the inevitable. But they should realize that no economy can grow forever. It's never happened in 3,000 years of recorded history.
Japan never really suffered from this (oh they had bubbles, but they popped when they were supposed too) so I expect to see the country back in the number 2 spot when China's house of cards comes tumbling down. It will come tumbling down, that much is certain. The 'when', however, is not so clear. The PRC can do a lot to stave a collapse off, but I don't think it can do much about manufacturing moving out of the country, or people choosing other countries to have their cheap products made (Vietnam, Philippines, Singapore, etc). That's one of the few things they can't stop and have little control over. And China relies on its cheap exports -- It's a massive part of the country's income. If that goes, not even the government can plug the hole. It will cause a cascade effect, allowing all those bubbles to pop. It will be a sight to behold.
Basically, China is different from Japan. In size, scope and because their economy operates differently since it's under the complete control of the government. Japan's economy was more "normal", if there is such a thing.