4 ms·

You are cherry-picking your graph durations. Private debt to GDP is still tremendously high by historical measures: http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/wp-cont

You are cherry-picking your graph durations. Private debt to GDP is still tremendously high by historical measures: http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/010212_2140_TheDebtwatc1.png http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/0... Really, read (or at least watch) Keen. He's the only economist whose models make any sense of the Japanese experience and he's correctly predicted economic crises using only private debt to GDP ratios quite successfully. The most interesting thing about his models are that they predict a moderation before the crisis, which is exactly what we've seen. It's revolutionary work. But I do agree that the Brexit (and the upcoming earnings shoah) are the proximate causes of this rate dip. The private debt issue is the underlying problem keeping them so low in the first place.

jldugger 10y ago
I chose literally the longest period FRED had available. Never heard of Keen until you brought him up, but I'm not really prepared to study one random heterodox economist to the exclusion of others. Especially one that seems unable to publish in peer reviewed journals.
- carsongross 10y ago
  I'm sorry: I shouldn't have said you were cherry picking in that case. You were misinformed by the limitations of the datasource you were looking at. Given the performance of academic economics over the last fifty years and the scandals in peer-reviewed academic journals, studying hetrodox economists is well worth your while if you are interested in truth rather than tenure. But I can save you the trouble, having looked into many of them: Keen is the one to read. https://www.amazon.com/Debunking-Economics-Revised-Expanded-Dethroned/dp/1848139926 https://www.amazon.com/Debunking-Economics-Revised-Expanded-... He's genius-tier, maybe our era's Keynes.

jldugger 10y ago

I chose literally the longest period FRED had available. Never heard of Keen until you brought him up, but I'm not really prepared to study one random heterodox economist to the exclusion of others. Especially one that seems unable to publish in peer reviewed journals.

carsongross 10y ago
I'm sorry: I shouldn't have said you were cherry picking in that case. You were misinformed by the limitations of the datasource you were looking at. Given the performance of academic economics over the last fifty years and the scandals in peer-reviewed academic journals, studying hetrodox economists is well worth your while if you are interested in truth rather than tenure. But I can save you the trouble, having looked into many of them: Keen is the one to read. https://www.amazon.com/Debunking-Economics-Revised-Expanded-Dethroned/dp/1848139926 https://www.amazon.com/Debunking-Economics-Revised-Expanded-... He's genius-tier, maybe our era's Keynes.