4 ms·

> It's obviously true that "those who commit sex crimes are more likely to reoffend" than the average citizen. Do you have figures for that?

• jessriedel 10y ago
  No, I would appeal to your own common sense. But if you must, you can infer it from the recidivism rates (>5%) quoted elsewhere in this thread, which must be larger than the base rate.
  • wutbrodo 10y ago
    > if you must, you can infer it from the recidivism rates (>5%) quoted elsewhere in this thread, which must be larger than the base rate. This is quite an extraordinary claim; do you have any evidence that overall recidivism rates "must be" lower than 5%? From Wikipedia: > According to an April 2011 report by the Pew Center on the States, the average national recidivism rate for released prisoners is 43.3%.
    • jessriedel 10y ago
      You misunderstand. The relevant base rate for my comment is the sexual offence rate in the general population.
      • wutbrodo 10y ago
        No, that was precisely my point. That is very much _not_ the relevant base rate because we're discussing recidivism, which is meaningless for non-offenders. That's like saying that the pregnancy rate isn't that low for US women aged 60-65 when compared to all US adults of any age (including the half that are physically incapable of pregnancy).
  • Oletros 10y ago
    Common sense doesn't work to gather actual data