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Is anyone surprised? Tesla and SpaceX have almost always missed their timeline goals. This is their MO. They do, however, always produce what they say they will

Is anyone surprised? Tesla and SpaceX have almost always missed their timeline goals. This is their MO. They do, however, always produce what they say they will.

timhon 10y ago
tech companies...
mikeash 10y ago
I wonder why you're being downvoted. As far as I can tell, you're exactly right. They make amazing stuff and you can usually (even if not always) count on them doing what they say they will... but do not put any faith in timelines.
- cryptoz 10y ago
  The classic joke is that Elon runs on Mars time, where 1 Mars year is about 1.8 Earth years. But yes, both Tesla and SpaceX deliver everything they say they will, and usually a lot more with all kinds of extra surprises - but it usually takes 1.8 times longer than they say it will. I'm okay with that, especially considering the incredible achievements of both companies at their beginnings. I think it's also reasonable to suggest that as both companies grow and stabilize their product lines and production facilities, their time estimates might get better. Or maybe not.
- melling 10y ago
  30 days ago you said they are producing 100,000 cars a year. You were quite confident then: "They've sold well over 100,000 cars. The current total is around 140,000. They project 80,000 or 90,000 this year, with a slow start, so I think their current rate is 100,000 if not higher." You shrugged off getting to 100,000 cars as no more difficult than other periods of time: " mikeash 26 days ago Going from 2,700 to 22,000 in 12 months sounds difficult too, as does going from 22,000 to 32,000 and from 32,000 to 50,000.'
  - mikeash 10y ago
    They built over 18,000 cars this quarter. They say half of that was done in the last four weeks of the quarter. That's 9,000 cars in four weeks, 2,250 cars per week, for an annualized rate of about 117,000/year. Seems like my confidence was completely warranted.
    - Avshalom 10y ago
      >do not put any faith in timelines
      - mikeash 10y ago
        In general that is totally true. They'll say 6 months and it's really 12. They'll say a year and it's really two or three. And I have no confidence in their stated objective of producing 500,000 cars in 2018. But when talking about the current production rate, that's hardly a "timeline" and doesn't much involve guessing the future. I will admit that these sales numbers don't really look like a missed timeline. It is definitely a theme with these companies, but doesn't seem to apply here.
ajmurmann 10y ago
I really like that this is a nice example of having to choose either fixed scope or fixed time in which Tesla very much went with fixed scope and flexible time.

Is anyone surprised? Tesla and SpaceX have almost always missed their timeline goals. This is their MO. They do, however, always produce what they say they will.

timhon 10y ago

tech companies...

mikeash 10y ago

I wonder why you're being downvoted. As far as I can tell, you're exactly right. They make amazing stuff and you can usually (even if not always) count on them doing what they say they will... but do not put any faith in timelines.

cryptoz 10y ago
The classic joke is that Elon runs on Mars time, where 1 Mars year is about 1.8 Earth years. But yes, both Tesla and SpaceX deliver everything they say they will, and usually a lot more with all kinds of extra surprises - but it usually takes 1.8 times longer than they say it will. I'm okay with that, especially considering the incredible achievements of both companies at their beginnings. I think it's also reasonable to suggest that as both companies grow and stabilize their product lines and production facilities, their time estimates might get better. Or maybe not.
melling 10y ago
30 days ago you said they are producing 100,000 cars a year. You were quite confident then: "They've sold well over 100,000 cars. The current total is around 140,000. They project 80,000 or 90,000 this year, with a slow start, so I think their current rate is 100,000 if not higher." You shrugged off getting to 100,000 cars as no more difficult than other periods of time: " mikeash 26 days ago Going from 2,700 to 22,000 in 12 months sounds difficult too, as does going from 22,000 to 32,000 and from 32,000 to 50,000.'
- mikeash 10y ago
  They built over 18,000 cars this quarter. They say half of that was done in the last four weeks of the quarter. That's 9,000 cars in four weeks, 2,250 cars per week, for an annualized rate of about 117,000/year. Seems like my confidence was completely warranted.
  - Avshalom 10y ago
    >do not put any faith in timelines
    - mikeash 10y ago
      In general that is totally true. They'll say 6 months and it's really 12. They'll say a year and it's really two or three. And I have no confidence in their stated objective of producing 500,000 cars in 2018. But when talking about the current production rate, that's hardly a "timeline" and doesn't much involve guessing the future. I will admit that these sales numbers don't really look like a missed timeline. It is definitely a theme with these companies, but doesn't seem to apply here.

ajmurmann 10y ago

I really like that this is a nice example of having to choose either fixed scope or fixed time in which Tesla very much went with fixed scope and flexible time.