5 ms·

I'm German so I may be biased, but I don't think this is punitive at all. The UK has been using the threat of leaving as a trump card in negotiations for decad

by pluma 10y ago

I'm German so I may be biased, but I don't think this is punitive at all. The UK has been using the threat of leaving as a trump card in negotiations for decades. They've basically opted out of all major agreements yet demanded having a say in every decision. They've basically been given special treatment like no other EU member and still complained about the "fascist EU" taking away their "sovereignty". UKIP was the logical consequence to decades of telling your own people everything that goes wrong in the UK is the fault of those evil bureaucrats in the EU. Cameron tried to bluff in order to renegotiate the UK's special privileges but he made the mistake of promising a referendum he didn't foresee he would lose. He severely underestimated how much those decades of FUD had paved the road for the Leave campaign. In the wake of the referendum the entire UK government has committed to following through. The result has been communicated as "a democratic decision", not as a tentative opinion poll to aide in decision making. Nobody has invoked Article 50 yet but everything in how the UK has handled this says "we're going to leave". What the UK apparently didn't expect is that the EU's reaction can be summarised as "Good riddance; don't let the door hit you on the way out". The UK has two options now: 1. Follow through and renegotiate everything. 2. Admit they were bluffing and try to handle the fallout. Either way the brexit trump card is no longer on the table. Staying in the EU would mean effectively giving up on all the advantages gained in previous negotiations because nobody is going to take future threats serious anymore. Leaving means renegotiating everything from scratch. The UK isn't being punished. It's just having the privileges revoked that it previously bargained for by continuously threatening to leave. There's nothing vindictive about this. There's just no reason for the EU to be nice to the UK anymore. How the UK is being treated now is simply a reflection of how the UK has treated the EU until now. It's certainly not nice, but it's not unfair. There's simply no reason the EU should negotiate anything in advance to Article 50 being invoked. BTW, in Germany the general appearance of the Brexit seems to be that the UK made a huge mistake and their country is disintegrating as a result. Scottish independence is perceived as a given and nobody sees any long-term point of having EU companies stay in the UK unless the UK can reach an agreement (e.g. staying in the EEA, which would mean upholding a ton of regulations the Leavers complained about with no way of affecting them). Nobody is worried about this setting any favourable precedent in the slightest. And for the record: despite Leave campaigners' propaganda, Germany has its own nationalist anti-EU movement which had previously gained a considerable following as a result of the refugee crisis, which has hit Germany much more than the UK). Germans don't see the EU as some Fourth Reich tool of controlling Europe. Most Germans don't even seem to be aware of the amount of political power Germany has within Europe. During the Greek financial crisis the general reaction to the prospect of a Grexit was actually positive (again with some worries about how badly Greek would do on its own). The mindset is simply different: Germans seem to genuinely think of themselves as European whereas Brits seem to think of Europe as "the continent" (i.e. not them).

peteretep 10y ago
I think your comment assumes a cohesive government policy that simply doesn't exist. > They've ... still complained about the > "fascist EU" taking away their > "sovereignty". There is no "they". There are leaders of political parties beholden to factions in their parties, only. For every nutcase UK politician and voter who calls the EU facist, there's a French one, a Dutch one, and a German one saying the same thing. Voter skepticism in the UK is probably higher than in the other major EU countries but only by a fraction. Don't assume the margin in the Netherlands or France would be massively that different, and those are countries which already have the Euro. > UKIP was the logical consequence UKIP is the logical consequence to the UK lacking a real far-right party. The right-wing parties on the continent are far scarier, and generally have higher support. > In the wake of the referendum the entire > UK government has committed to following > through. The result has been communicated > as "a democratic decision", not as a > tentative opinion poll to aide in decision > making. Nobody has invoked Article 50 yet > but everything in how the UK has handled > this says "we're going to leave". You are reading different papers to me. > What the UK apparently didn't expect is > that the EU's reaction can be summarised > as "Good riddance; don't let the door hit > you on the way out". No, that's exactly what Cameron said would happen - that we'd have to trigger Article 50 the next day.
- pluma 10y ago
  The reason I pointed out the "fascist EU" bit is because I only recently found out the reason I kept running into Leavers who think the EU is uniquely controlled by Germany: a quote from a prominent pro-Brexit politician (I forgot who it was but I want to say Boris Johnson). > The right-wing parties on the continent are far scarier, and generally have higher support. Don't conflate nationalism with right-wing. The BNP already was a thing. UKIP is just less ostensibly racist. A similar thing happened in Germany actually: the NPD is blatantly racist (though always just constitutional enough to avoid being banned) and the AfD is almost a carbon copy of UKIP (just with more anti-muslim rhetoric as it seems). > You are reading different papers to me. Probably. I'm not even in the UK. However Cameron's speech after the referendum sounded pretty much like "okay, we're leaving but I'm not the PM to do that" and pretty much everything else I saw on BBC World within the days following the referendum sounded like the Brexit has been decided -- plus the various statements by "the remaining 27" EU members certainly are phrased in ways that no longer count the UK as an EU member. > No, that's exactly what Cameron said would happen - that we'd have to trigger Article 50 the next day. I guess I should have avoided saying "the UK" because politics are too complex to put everything in terms like that. The Leave campaign certainly seems dumbstruck they won't get to negotiate prior to triggering Article 50, however. And there are an awful lot of people who seem to think the UK isn't already leaving or that there's still a way -- though I guess that's mostly wishful thinking (or the "bargaining" step on the grief progression).

by pluma 10y ago

peteretep 10y ago

I think your comment assumes a cohesive government policy that simply doesn't exist. > They've ... still complained about the > "fascist EU" taking away their > "sovereignty". There is no "they". There are leaders of political parties beholden to factions in their parties, only. For every nutcase UK politician and voter who calls the EU facist, there's a French one, a Dutch one, and a German one saying the same thing. Voter skepticism in the UK is probably higher than in the other major EU countries but only by a fraction. Don't assume the margin in the Netherlands or France would be massively that different, and those are countries which already have the Euro. > UKIP was the logical consequence UKIP is the logical consequence to the UK lacking a real far-right party. The right-wing parties on the continent are far scarier, and generally have higher support. > In the wake of the referendum the entire > UK government has committed to following > through. The result has been communicated > as "a democratic decision", not as a > tentative opinion poll to aide in decision > making. Nobody has invoked Article 50 yet > but everything in how the UK has handled > this says "we're going to leave". You are reading different papers to me. > What the UK apparently didn't expect is > that the EU's reaction can be summarised > as "Good riddance; don't let the door hit > you on the way out". No, that's exactly what Cameron said would happen - that we'd have to trigger Article 50 the next day.

pluma 10y ago
The reason I pointed out the "fascist EU" bit is because I only recently found out the reason I kept running into Leavers who think the EU is uniquely controlled by Germany: a quote from a prominent pro-Brexit politician (I forgot who it was but I want to say Boris Johnson). > The right-wing parties on the continent are far scarier, and generally have higher support. Don't conflate nationalism with right-wing. The BNP already was a thing. UKIP is just less ostensibly racist. A similar thing happened in Germany actually: the NPD is blatantly racist (though always just constitutional enough to avoid being banned) and the AfD is almost a carbon copy of UKIP (just with more anti-muslim rhetoric as it seems). > You are reading different papers to me. Probably. I'm not even in the UK. However Cameron's speech after the referendum sounded pretty much like "okay, we're leaving but I'm not the PM to do that" and pretty much everything else I saw on BBC World within the days following the referendum sounded like the Brexit has been decided -- plus the various statements by "the remaining 27" EU members certainly are phrased in ways that no longer count the UK as an EU member. > No, that's exactly what Cameron said would happen - that we'd have to trigger Article 50 the next day. I guess I should have avoided saying "the UK" because politics are too complex to put everything in terms like that. The Leave campaign certainly seems dumbstruck they won't get to negotiate prior to triggering Article 50, however. And there are an awful lot of people who seem to think the UK isn't already leaving or that there's still a way -- though I guess that's mostly wishful thinking (or the "bargaining" step on the grief progression).