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If the UK negotiate to be part of the EEA within 2 years of activating Article 50, then it will be a smooth transition. The other unknown that parent did not m
by gutnor 10y ago
If the UK negotiate to be part of the EEA within 2 years of activating Article 50, then it will be a smooth transition.
The other unknown that parent did not mention is how hard will the EU make those negotiation. Everybody economical interest is that the EU accept, even politically punishing an ex-member for leaving is going to have consequences in the EU and internationally ( Eurosceptic movement have been boosted by the treatment of the people in Greece and other countries)
However, that's a bit similar that the whole referendum but applied to Europe in general, EU may well take crazy decision. See for example how Junker is talking about the UK as if it has spit in his face (remember that's a narrow victory for Leave mostly based on outright lies), then meeting the Scottish PM forgetting the referendum from 2 years ago and even saying the "Brexit will not be an amicable divorce" and anyone knows that amicable in the context of a divorce does not mean friendly, it is only amicable by comparison with the destructive mess of going through legal proceedings.
edit: The number of EU people living in the UK is more than 3 millions, that's more than the 7 smaller member of the EU, that's more people than the difference between Leave and Remain (disclaimer: that also includes me) That's what make me the most uncomfortable with Junker, he does not care about the people, he just react like a kid because the UK is making him look bad.
- simonh 10y ago> If the UK negotiate to be part of the EEA within 2 years of activating Article 50, then it will be a smooth transition. As I have tried to explain, negotiating to join the EEA while still a member of the EU is illegal under EU law. They can only start that negotiation after actually leaving the EU, not after triggering Article 50.
- gutnor 10y agoWhat is your legal status after triggering Article 50 ? Are you still considered a full member of the EU, meaning you retain all your rights including voting ? Lots of things are illegal for member state, basically everything that the UK needs to do in the 2 years period is illegal for a member state. Remain have been bad at campaigning but forgetting to say that -actually- they won't be able to initiate any trade negotiation until basically the day all their deals expire seems like a major blunder. If that's indeed the case, the UK will have no choice but not trigger Article 50.
- simonh 10y ago> Are you still considered a full member of the EU, meaning you retain all your rights including voting ? Yep. And to your other points, yes again. Article 50 is a political and economic suicide pill.
- makomk 10y agoAbsent Article 50, surely everything the UK needs to do in the 2 years period would be legal for an EU state, because Greenland managed it? The trick is/was that EU rules (fairly obviously) allow the EU states to negotiate changes to the agreements binding the EU together, including negotiating an exit whereby one of them leaves the EU but retains some access to the internal markets.
- kintamanimatt 10y agoI'm struggling to find a source for this. Is there anywhere I can read more about this?
- simonh 10y agohttp://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36684876 http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36684876 The BBC concludes that the trade commissioner is technically correct, which as we all know is the best kind of correct.
- kintamanimatt 10y agoThank you, that's exactly the kind of source I was looking for. I was completely unable to find anything with the Google queries I was using.