5 ms·

> Since canceling the free movement of workers was the defining issue of the referendum, I don't think there's any valid inference from "X is what a lot of peo

by gjm11 10y ago

> Since canceling the free movement of workers was the defining issue of the referendum, I don't think there's any valid inference from "X is what a lot of people thought they would get by voting Leave" to "X is at all likely to happen if/when the UK leaves the EU". A lot of people thought that by voting Leave they were voting for an extra £350M/week that would go to the NHS. Nigel Farage admitted within an hour of the result that that was never going to happen, and I haven't heard anyone from the Leave camp saying anything different. A lot of people thought that by voting Leave they were voting for the UK's businesses not to have to comply with EU regulations. But I think the most likely paths forward involve the UK continuing to do that, in order to be able to continue trading on favourable terms with the EU. A lot of people thought that by voting Leave they were voting for much lower immigration. A bunch of senior people from the Leave camp have made it clear that that is unlikely to happen. You talk about "totally betraying many key issues in the referendum", but that's already happened, and it's pretty clear that in so far as there was any coherent plan on the Leave side it was always intended to happen. (... But: A lot of people thought that by voting Leave they were giving a big fuck-you to The Establishment and communicating their dissatisfaction with the state of affairs in the UK. That, they managed just fine.) I'm not, for the avoidance of doubt, saying that if/when the UK leaves the EU we will still have free exchange of goods, services, capital and workers, or that London will keep its passporting rights. We might well lose those things. But we can't tell that we will just because keeping them would mean not giving Leave voters what they thought they were voting for. Leave voters aren't going to get a lot of what they thought they were voting for, and they never were.

krona 10y ago
> A lot of people thought that by voting Leave they were voting for an extra £350M/week that would go to the NHS. If anyone of voting age believes that, they are undoubtedly an idiot.
- gjm11 10y ago
  In so far as you're right, I think the evidence is that there are a lot of idiots around. (I wouldn't be so harsh myself.)
simonh 10y ago
Good post, I agree with it all, but on this: > I'm not, for the avoidance of doubt, saying that if/when the UK leaves the EU we will still have free exchange of goods, services, capital and workers, or that London will keep its passporting rights. We might well lose those things. We are guaranteed to lose those things at least for some time, because we can't even begin to negotiate getting them back until we're out of the EU.
- gutnor 10y ago
  If the UK negotiate to be part of the EEA within 2 years of activating Article 50, then it will be a smooth transition. The other unknown that parent did not mention is how hard will the EU make those negotiation. Everybody economical interest is that the EU accept, even politically punishing an ex-member for leaving is going to have consequences in the EU and internationally ( Eurosceptic movement have been boosted by the treatment of the people in Greece and other countries) However, that's a bit similar that the whole referendum but applied to Europe in general, EU may well take crazy decision. See for example how Junker is talking about the UK as if it has spit in his face (remember that's a narrow victory for Leave mostly based on outright lies), then meeting the Scottish PM forgetting the referendum from 2 years ago and even saying the "Brexit will not be an amicable divorce" and anyone knows that amicable in the context of a divorce does not mean friendly, it is only amicable by comparison with the destructive mess of going through legal proceedings. edit: The number of EU people living in the UK is more than 3 millions, that's more than the 7 smaller member of the EU, that's more people than the difference between Leave and Remain (disclaimer: that also includes me) That's what make me the most uncomfortable with Junker, he does not care about the people, he just react like a kid because the UK is making him look bad.
  - simonh 10y ago
    > If the UK negotiate to be part of the EEA within 2 years of activating Article 50, then it will be a smooth transition. As I have tried to explain, negotiating to join the EEA while still a member of the EU is illegal under EU law. They can only start that negotiation after actually leaving the EU, not after triggering Article 50.

by gjm11 10y ago

krona 10y ago

> A lot of people thought that by voting Leave they were voting for an extra £350M/week that would go to the NHS. If anyone of voting age believes that, they are undoubtedly an idiot.

gjm11 10y ago
In so far as you're right, I think the evidence is that there are a lot of idiots around. (I wouldn't be so harsh myself.)

simonh 10y ago

Good post, I agree with it all, but on this: > I'm not, for the avoidance of doubt, saying that if/when the UK leaves the EU we will still have free exchange of goods, services, capital and workers, or that London will keep its passporting rights. We might well lose those things. We are guaranteed to lose those things at least for some time, because we can't even begin to negotiate getting them back until we're out of the EU.

gutnor 10y ago
If the UK negotiate to be part of the EEA within 2 years of activating Article 50, then it will be a smooth transition. The other unknown that parent did not mention is how hard will the EU make those negotiation. Everybody economical interest is that the EU accept, even politically punishing an ex-member for leaving is going to have consequences in the EU and internationally ( Eurosceptic movement have been boosted by the treatment of the people in Greece and other countries) However, that's a bit similar that the whole referendum but applied to Europe in general, EU may well take crazy decision. See for example how Junker is talking about the UK as if it has spit in his face (remember that's a narrow victory for Leave mostly based on outright lies), then meeting the Scottish PM forgetting the referendum from 2 years ago and even saying the "Brexit will not be an amicable divorce" and anyone knows that amicable in the context of a divorce does not mean friendly, it is only amicable by comparison with the destructive mess of going through legal proceedings. edit: The number of EU people living in the UK is more than 3 millions, that's more than the 7 smaller member of the EU, that's more people than the difference between Leave and Remain (disclaimer: that also includes me) That's what make me the most uncomfortable with Junker, he does not care about the people, he just react like a kid because the UK is making him look bad.
- simonh 10y ago
  > If the UK negotiate to be part of the EEA within 2 years of activating Article 50, then it will be a smooth transition. As I have tried to explain, negotiating to join the EEA while still a member of the EU is illegal under EU law. They can only start that negotiation after actually leaving the EU, not after triggering Article 50.