5 ms·

We may simply never leave the EU in the first place. I think parliament won't vote to leave because they're not idiots and we won't leave.

TheOtherHobbes 10y ago
Given the last couple of months, I think there's no evidence at all to support the assertion that British politicians aren't idiots. Ignoring the legalities, the Leave vote crossed the Rubicon. The EU has always tolerated rather than enjoyed the company of the British establishment. So the EU is happy to see the back of the UK. The British establishment still thinks it's the 19th century, so it's happy not to have anything to do with the 21st. The biggest loser will be the City - which is beyond ironic considering the UK has literally spent the last few decades retooling its economy around the City. Now it's about to throw that away. We're not great at much else. The things we are good at - culture, R&D, farming, tourism - all work better in the EU than out. In practice, immigration is a meaningless non-issue. Getting rid of Polish plumbers won't suddenly reveal thousands of competent English plumbers hiding in a cupboard somewhere. It takes time to train people up, and the biggest source of training money has been the EU. It takes time to rebuild manufacturing, and the biggest source of funding for rebuilding manufacturing has been the EU. It takes time to improve education, and the biggest source of funding for improved education - especially at postgrad level - has been the EU. We could move towards becoming a startup economy, but if all the VC money moves to Europe, we won't have the money to do it natively. The Leave vote is possibly the single most stupid decision in all of British history.
- Kurtz79 10y ago
  "The EU has always tolerated rather than enjoyed the company of the British establishment. So the EU is happy to see the back of the UK." This assertion is almost as myopic as those from the Leave campaign. The UK is one of the richest and most populous countries in the Union, even without considering the repercussions on other members, Brexit will mean a serious blow for the EU in terms of trade loss and budget financing. I don't think anybody in the EU should be happy of seeing UK's back, regardless of their opinions of its leaders. It is really a lose-lose situation.
  - gonvaled 10y ago
    The UK has really closed the rubicon. For the EU, enough is enough. > Brexit will mean a serious blow for the EU in terms of trade loss and budget financing. The UK can get a norwegian deal: same trade, same budget, no UK blocking.
- eru 10y ago
  > The EU has always tolerated rather than enjoyed the company of the British establishment. So the EU is happy to see the back of the UK. The Germans and more market oriented Europeans further east liked the British as a counterweight to the statist French, I think. More importantly, can the EU actually kick out Britain, if Britain decides not to go forward with the leave?
  - SyneRyder 10y ago
    In this Guardian article, they say the only grounds for suspending an EU member are a breach of EU values, such as freedom & democracy. Maybe they could invoke that on grounds of ignoring the referendum, but it might be a precedent the EU don't want to set: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/25/article-50-brexit-debate-britain-eu http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/25/article-50-b...
    - simonh 10y ago
      > Maybe they could invoke that on grounds of ignoring the referendum The referendum is only advisory under British law so they'd have no legal basis on which to do that.
Kurtz79 10y ago
It would like saying that the referendum was useless and the will of the people is meaningless. It would fuel civil unrest and favor far-right parties. As much as it pains me, it is not really an option.
- simonh 10y ago
  Holland and Denmark both had EU referendums and went back for a second referendum with revised terms which passed. The British people decided to join the EU in a referendum, decided to leave the EU in a referendum and absolutely have the right to vote to stay in it again in another referendum. The whole process is stupid, but perfectly democratic.
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]

TheOtherHobbes 10y ago

Given the last couple of months, I think there's no evidence at all to support the assertion that British politicians aren't idiots. Ignoring the legalities, the Leave vote crossed the Rubicon. The EU has always tolerated rather than enjoyed the company of the British establishment. So the EU is happy to see the back of the UK. The British establishment still thinks it's the 19th century, so it's happy not to have anything to do with the 21st. The biggest loser will be the City - which is beyond ironic considering the UK has literally spent the last few decades retooling its economy around the City. Now it's about to throw that away. We're not great at much else. The things we are good at - culture, R&D, farming, tourism - all work better in the EU than out. In practice, immigration is a meaningless non-issue. Getting rid of Polish plumbers won't suddenly reveal thousands of competent English plumbers hiding in a cupboard somewhere. It takes time to train people up, and the biggest source of training money has been the EU. It takes time to rebuild manufacturing, and the biggest source of funding for rebuilding manufacturing has been the EU. It takes time to improve education, and the biggest source of funding for improved education - especially at postgrad level - has been the EU. We could move towards becoming a startup economy, but if all the VC money moves to Europe, we won't have the money to do it natively. The Leave vote is possibly the single most stupid decision in all of British history.

Kurtz79 10y ago
"The EU has always tolerated rather than enjoyed the company of the British establishment. So the EU is happy to see the back of the UK." This assertion is almost as myopic as those from the Leave campaign. The UK is one of the richest and most populous countries in the Union, even without considering the repercussions on other members, Brexit will mean a serious blow for the EU in terms of trade loss and budget financing. I don't think anybody in the EU should be happy of seeing UK's back, regardless of their opinions of its leaders. It is really a lose-lose situation.
- gonvaled 10y ago
  The UK has really closed the rubicon. For the EU, enough is enough. > Brexit will mean a serious blow for the EU in terms of trade loss and budget financing. The UK can get a norwegian deal: same trade, same budget, no UK blocking.
eru 10y ago
> The EU has always tolerated rather than enjoyed the company of the British establishment. So the EU is happy to see the back of the UK. The Germans and more market oriented Europeans further east liked the British as a counterweight to the statist French, I think. More importantly, can the EU actually kick out Britain, if Britain decides not to go forward with the leave?
- SyneRyder 10y ago
  In this Guardian article, they say the only grounds for suspending an EU member are a breach of EU values, such as freedom & democracy. Maybe they could invoke that on grounds of ignoring the referendum, but it might be a precedent the EU don't want to set: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/25/article-50-brexit-debate-britain-eu http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/25/article-50-b...
  - simonh 10y ago
    > Maybe they could invoke that on grounds of ignoring the referendum The referendum is only advisory under British law so they'd have no legal basis on which to do that.

Kurtz79 10y ago

It would like saying that the referendum was useless and the will of the people is meaningless. It would fuel civil unrest and favor far-right parties. As much as it pains me, it is not really an option.

simonh 10y ago
Holland and Denmark both had EU referendums and went back for a second referendum with revised terms which passed. The British people decided to join the EU in a referendum, decided to leave the EU in a referendum and absolutely have the right to vote to stay in it again in another referendum. The whole process is stupid, but perfectly democratic.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]