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Whether Tesla has a lower accidents/mile rate (or is some factor better or worse) is a red herring [1]. The key factor in whether this is a legitimate flaw in
by argonaut 10y ago
Whether Tesla has a lower accidents/mile rate (or is some factor better or worse) is a red herring [1].
The key factor in whether this is a legitimate flaw in Tesla's system is: could an alert, competent driver easily avoid the accident?. An alternate formulation of this criteria is: would it be relatively easy for an engineer to hard-code a brute-force solution to the edge case, if they really wanted to?
Obviously we'll need to see the crash video to verify, but my guess is the answer is yes, this is a legitimate flaw in Tesla's system. Tesla's system should have been able to detect a car traveling perpendicular to the highway [2]. Tesla's system was unfortunately not sophisticated enough to detect a car that an alert human would be able to detect in their peripheral vision, and their system was not sophisticated enough to perform the simple action that a human would be able to perform (slamming on brakes). In fact, if they ever want to scale up to a full urban-capable system this is a situation they need to be able to handle.
Examples of accidents where I wouldn't blame Tesla's system: the other car swerves across the center divide and hits you head on, the other car is speeding and rear ends you, the car in the next lane swerves into you, the tire blows out and you hit a tree, etc. Although in the long-term we would ideally have systems that could handle these situations.
[1] We need to wait for more miles and (inevitable) accidents to be logged rather than rely on this one data point. Also my guess is highway driving is less fatality prone than urban driving, on a per-mile basis.
- exDM69 10y agoI don't think that autonomous cars are anywhere near a situation where a large scale deployment is feasible. In particular, I think that there needs to be a cross-vendor car-to-car or car-to-road communication protocol. Until then, autonomous cars will only work as long as there are relatively few of them or they run in controlled conditions like major highways. When I'm in traffic, I notice myself communicating with other people a lot. Most commonly it's just brief eye contact ("I have seen you"), but it enables smooth and safe traffic for everyone. Just blindly following rules and reacting to your immediate surroundings won't work in large scale. There are plenty of situations where that would end up in a deadlock traffic jam (e.g. 4 way intersection with no right of way). This is by no means an impossible task, I just have not heard of an effort trying to solve it yet.
- argonaut 10y agoI rarely communicate with other drivers (other than with signal lights and brake lights), so I don't actually think it's necessary for self-driving cars. The only use of communication is right of way at stop signs, but this can be resolved by seeing which car decides to move forwards into the intersection.