6 ms·

Wrong. One in 1.2 million flights crash. This is literally a "known chance". Planes take off anyway.

• jsprogrammer 10y ago
  No, that is an observed statistic.
  • jfrisby 10y ago
    And the difference is?
    • jsprogrammer 10y ago
      One is predictive, the other is retrospective.
      • jfrisby 10y ago
        Except that the retrospective IS predictive.
        • jsprogrammer 10y ago
          What evidence supports that position? Crashes are anaomolus events that happen for very specific reasons. Reasons that do not have any seeming connection to any other crash. I don't see how a retrospective could predict anything about the success of future flights.
          • jfrisby 10y ago
            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Failure_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Failure_rate