5 ms·

I think this was my favorite quote of the entire campaign - definitely the one that made me despair for both the political and common classes

• mike_hearn 10y ago
  Yes that's interesting isn't it. I wrote an analysis of what's going on with that: https://medium.com/@octskyward/how-is-the-remain-campaign-losing-e0784209fe65#.6ew94nlgt https://medium.com/@octskyward/how-is-the-remain-campaign-lo...
  • jerf 10y ago
    Nice article. I know a lot of people are despairing at the commoners ignoring "expert advice". Personally, I'm despairing at so many of the "educateds" ignoring the fact that the track record for "expert advice" has been awful, and failing to take the appropriate actions based on that. You don't hear much about the hazards of education, but in my opinion, education can implicitly teach the primacy of words over facts. Education teaches some things that are unintuitive and superficially contradict observed reality, yet are true. For instance, chemistry is based on atoms, or Newtonian physics. These concepts took centuries because they are not intuitive, but they are true. But trusting words over reality can easily go too far. As you say in that article, you can see "experts" who utterly shocked by what should have been predictable. I've been reading "Debunking Economics", (by an econ professor, not just "a guy"), and he shows (mathematically!) the dominant economic model does not include the Great Recession in its possible state space. The mathematically inclined should be gasping in horror. But that's not even the real problem; the real problem is that the "experts" cling to it even so. Because they like the words. The "common man" is much better at sniffing these mismatches out than the "educated man". Whether this is an intrinsic hazard of education, or a defect in our system, I'm not sure. Observed reality can still mislead them, it is absolutely true. (I can argue either way.) But unfortunately, the educated masses are not generally justified in their belief of superiority. It is at best a very situational superiority, and one that carries its own unique hazards, not a universal superiority. (And I do truly mean that "unfortunately". It should not be. We are leaving so much "on the table" because our educated class is not all that "educated". But it is what it is.)
    • AnimalMuppet 10y ago
      I regret that I have only one upvote to give you for that, jerf. Brilliant comment. Maybe what we need is to teach "limits of models" or some such as part of our educational curriculum. Learning to know when to stop trusting your model without further evidence seems to me to be a critical skill. And it seems to me that a prime example of this problem is the "the universe is probably a simulation" people. I get that you can make that argument, but they seem to actually believe that the argument reflects reality. That's kind of unsettling - not the argument, but that they take it that seriously.
      • tim333 10y ago
        Re teaching models, or how to be smart with them I recommend Mungers talk "A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom As It Relates To Investment Management & Business." The world would be better if people were taught that one https://old.ycombinator.com/munger.html https://old.ycombinator.com/munger.html
    • chillacy 10y ago
      You'd probably also like Antifragile by Nassim Taleb, who makes his money betting on rare events like market crashes that economic models ignore.