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This article is basically political bullshit masquerading as some sort of prediction. Where exactly is this bubble? The author's logic appears to be: "China h
by strebler 17y ago
This article is basically political bullshit masquerading as some sort of prediction.
Where exactly is this bubble? The author's logic appears to be: "China has defied the recession, therefore the economy is a bubble!"
China's economy has been turbulent over the past 30+ years, but with a lot of saved money (both at the personal and government levels), they've been able to weather much worse than the US's current situation. Massive unemployment, food shortages, inflation, you name it, they've been there.
But for a "bubble" to be afoot as suggested, there really should be speculation of some sort going on, which the author doesn't even go into. Sure, the price of real estate has tripled in the past decade in many areas of China (which he also doesn't mention), but for a nation bent on saving money rather than massive mortgages, it's not clear whether that's really a bubble or just what people can actually afford.
High GDP growth at this stage in China's development doesn't mean it's definitely a bubble either, nor do they have to keep it up. It's like a start-up who get's 80% traffic growth on their website every month for the first 6 months, it will slow down eventually and that's ok. China doesn't have to keep this rate of GDP growth to keep people happy: a higher standard of living will do that too.
China is complex and our understanding of their society and economy seems poor at best. People like this author don't help.
In any case, there are valid arguments (both pro and anti bubble), but this article is missing a lot.
- fauxgrass 17y agoChina's economy has been turbulent over the past 30+ years, but with a lot of saved money japan has the highest personal savings rates in the world yet their economy falls further into the toilet. this is a non-sequiter High GDP growth at this stage in China's development doesn't mean it's definitely a bubble every, EVERY debt chart in china has gone parabolic. if this isn't a bubble, then our housing market up until 2008 wasn't a bubble either China is complex and our understanding of their society and economy seems poor at best ? china's economy is being very well documented. you just don't seem to like the data so you're dismissing it as conjecture
- echaozh 17y agoI think the logic is sound. Miracles don't always happen, and anything miraculous deserves at least some suspicion. The price of real estate has tripled, while the GDP hasn't. Clearly, not all the people can afford the price.
- borism 17y ago> In any case, there are valid arguments (both pro and anti bubble), but this article is missing a lot. so why don't you mention some of the arguments he missed, because I can't see any?