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He doesn't think much of China's infrastructure build out (based mainly on the possibility that it is inefficient or overheating). But perhaps overseas student
by ximeng 17y ago
He doesn't think much of China's infrastructure build out (based mainly on the possibility that it is inefficient or overheating). But perhaps overseas student numbers are more revealing - presumably education is valuable even if infrastructure isn't.
I had a dig around for some statistics, and found the Australian government page on this:
http://aei.gov.au/AEI/MIP/Statistics/StudentEnrolmentAndVisaStatistics/Default.htm#data http://aei.gov.au/AEI/MIP/Statistics/StudentEnrolmentAndVisa...
Statistics for China:
2005 - 84,476
2006 - 93,533
2007 - 110,846
2008 - 131,210
2009 - 154,777
That's 17% growth from 2008 to 2009. (Incidentally US figures have gone down.) Not a perfect proxy for economic growth, but then what is? There may be a bubble here and there, but on the face of it China seems to have a lot of advantages.
As for not having a social safety net, it appears they've thought about the one:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jGQDE0Z2LbFGRirzDQTs81WGjXlAD9EAVR800 http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jGQDE0Z2Lb...
I don't know if China's stimulus is as distorting as the article suggests, but it seems to me that now is as good a time as you're going to get to spend your dollars overseas if you've got some spare. I wouldn't bet on the stories about new investments in solar power, African minerals, and high speed train networks drying up just yet.
- liuliu 17y agoI don't think that reflects the current economic fact by evaluating oversea student number. The way families in China to collect tuition towards college is much like many families in the United States. They just start early. Thus, it cannot reflect the economic status at this very moment. Besides, although whether true or not is unclear, I do believe Asian families in general are more willing to invest in education. The number of people who is taking National College Entrance Exam is dropped from 2008. It is a safe bet that the number of oversea student will drop in 5 to 6 years (due to the birth control policy).