4 ms·

Far too short an article for such a topic, it should be at least 6 pages. There is far more that needs to be mentioned to even give half the picture.

borism 17y ago
it's just a very general and simple to understand article in a Christian Science Monitor. author has an interesting site and a book, http://contrarianedge.com http://contrarianedge.com for those like me who want to investigate further.
- ximeng 17y ago
  I voted you up. Thanks for the link to the site, I also wanted to investigate further. It does look like he repeats the same story a lot on that site. Here's a very similar story from 2008: http://contrarianedge.com/2008/08/21/chinese-and-starbucks-late-stage-growth-obesity/ http://contrarianedge.com/2008/08/21/chinese-and-starbucks-l... There are other presentations and interviews where he repeats these arguments. While there is definitely a bit more detail and statistics on the site, it's not significantly more. And articles like the one below where he is correcting his own back-of-the-napkin estimates don't inspire confidence: http://contrarianedge.com/2009/07/30/reappraising-china%E2%80%99s-%E2%80%98staggering%E2%80%99-growth/ http://contrarianedge.com/2009/07/30/reappraising-china%E2%8... Interesting quote from him: "Maybe it is the pessimist in me, or maybe I’ve written so many “China will slowdown articles” that I am looking for data confirming my view (the confirmation bias) – that is possible, I am human after all." And another which I think is quite a good summary of his arguments: "I have absolutely no facts to back up what I am about to say, but it is not hard to imagine future stories about poverty stricken farmers that moved to big cities for a better life and found despair; or that inland migration (from farming to factories) only brings a onetime productivity jump as poorly educated farmers-turned-factory-workers add little to productivity improvements afterwards; or how weak and debt ridden the financial system is; or the devastating impact that pollution has on health and productivity; or how the biggest shopping mall in the world, that happens to be in China, is almost completely empty. " The book appears to be fairly generally about trading rather than being focused on this particular question. All in all, I'm still left thinking that there is not much more to this gent's arguments than came out in the CS Monitor article.

borism 17y ago

it's just a very general and simple to understand article in a Christian Science Monitor. author has an interesting site and a book, http://contrarianedge.com http://contrarianedge.com for those like me who want to investigate further.

ximeng 17y ago
I voted you up. Thanks for the link to the site, I also wanted to investigate further. It does look like he repeats the same story a lot on that site. Here's a very similar story from 2008: http://contrarianedge.com/2008/08/21/chinese-and-starbucks-late-stage-growth-obesity/ http://contrarianedge.com/2008/08/21/chinese-and-starbucks-l... There are other presentations and interviews where he repeats these arguments. While there is definitely a bit more detail and statistics on the site, it's not significantly more. And articles like the one below where he is correcting his own back-of-the-napkin estimates don't inspire confidence: http://contrarianedge.com/2009/07/30/reappraising-china%E2%80%99s-%E2%80%98staggering%E2%80%99-growth/ http://contrarianedge.com/2009/07/30/reappraising-china%E2%8... Interesting quote from him: "Maybe it is the pessimist in me, or maybe I’ve written so many “China will slowdown articles” that I am looking for data confirming my view (the confirmation bias) – that is possible, I am human after all." And another which I think is quite a good summary of his arguments: "I have absolutely no facts to back up what I am about to say, but it is not hard to imagine future stories about poverty stricken farmers that moved to big cities for a better life and found despair; or that inland migration (from farming to factories) only brings a onetime productivity jump as poorly educated farmers-turned-factory-workers add little to productivity improvements afterwards; or how weak and debt ridden the financial system is; or the devastating impact that pollution has on health and productivity; or how the biggest shopping mall in the world, that happens to be in China, is almost completely empty. " The book appears to be fairly generally about trading rather than being focused on this particular question. All in all, I'm still left thinking that there is not much more to this gent's arguments than came out in the CS Monitor article.