4 ms·

>People are critical of the flagrant dishonesty of the Leave campaign It's not like the remain campaign was much more honest, and the level of scaremongering w

>People are critical of the flagrant dishonesty of the Leave campaign It's not like the remain campaign was much more honest, and the level of scaremongering was absurd. Beyond the pale is the number of complaints that the sky has, in fact, fallen in because the FTSE has plunged and the pound has dropped. As if people from Sunderland or rural Wales were concerned about the cost of holidaying the Riviera or taking a hit on their non-existent stock portfolios. >He has also effectively promised major restrictions of immigration alongside access to the single market, which everyone knew was impossible Case in point. We'll continue to trade with Europe even without unrestricted immigration - it just won't be tarriff free trade. Nonetheless, the tarriff level will be throttled by WTO rules anyhow. Average tarriffs with the US is I think something like 2%. Not a sky falling figure that.

CaptainZapp 10y ago
Case in point. We'll continue to trade with Europe even without unrestricted immigration I think the city, as in the financial industry, which is a very important part of the British economy begs to differ.
nikcub 10y ago
> As if people from Sunderland or rural Wales were concerned about the cost of holidaying the Riviera or taking a hit on their non-existent stock portfolios. Economic downturns and recessions disproportionately affect the poor[0] and disadvantaged[1]. [0] http://www.russellsage.org/research/special-initiatives/great-recession/great-recession-rfp http://www.russellsage.org/research/special-initiatives/grea... [1] https://www.aclu.org/sites/default/files/field_document/discrimlend_final.pdf https://www.aclu.org/sites/default/files/field_document/disc...
- crdoconnor 10y ago
  A) The parts of England that voted to exit were already in recession and nobody noticed. B) Actually they'll stand to do better because: * There will be less competition for jobs, meaning a rise in wages. * Westminster is more likely to direct funding their way in order to avoid another repeat of Thursday. * The low pound will be good for export industries.
  - wolfwyrd 10y ago
    They'll still get hit hardest. Weak pound means more expensive imports. UK imports ~40% of it's food [1]. That food will now cost more to import raising prices at the supermarkets. Poorer people spend a larger %'age of their income on essentials like food. The weak pound means importing oil (priced in USD) will be more expensive. This will affect Petrol prices (we're already seeing a 2-3p rise at the pumps). Poorer people spend a larger %'age of their income on essentials like fuel. There are a number of knock-on effects from the weak pound. Yes it's good for exports but overall it's going to be a rough couple of years for the already disadvantaged. Speaking to your point on competition as well - if the UK wishes to join the EU free market they will most likely need to accept freedom of movement. No treaty has ever been agreed with any country without this caveat (that covers the Swiss, Norway etc). It's possible that the UK may be an exception but it's unlikely. [1] http://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/issue/uk.html http://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/issue/uk.html
    - crdoconnor 10y ago
      >They'll still get hit hardest. Weak pound means more expensive imports. UK imports ~40% of it's food I can think of one rule which will get revoked in that case: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Set-aside https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Set-aside Much like Russia (which suffered a much worse currency slump and also imports a lot of food), the UK will likely roll with it and engage in import substitution. >Speaking to your point on competition as well - if the UK wishes to join the EU free market they will most likely need to accept freedom of movement. That's clearly the deal the remainers wanted to take but if I recall correctly they lost. At the low end I'm pretty sure the wage rises coming from fewer Poles, etc. will at least match - and possibly outstrip inflation caused by newly instituted 2-4% tariffs.
      - drcongo 10y ago
        Have you read the linked article? The leave campaigners are now furiously back-pedalling on their claims about reduced immigration. I'm intrigued as to why you think there'll be "fewer Poles etc.". Where are these extra jobs going to come from with a rock bottom pound and markets in freefall? Do you believe this was a vote about repatriation or something?
Brakenshire 10y ago
WTO rules would be completely disastrous. WTO only deals with goods, and the UK is overwhelmingly a service economy, and even in goods you have significant tariffs (10% on cars for instance, which is a major UK industry). Projections I read in the FT for a return to WTO trading are for a 3-7% fall in GDP, which is not far off the scale of the 2008 recession. Thank god it won't be nearly as bad as that. I'd actually say comparing to WTO was an element of the genuine scaremongering of the remain campaign, because almost certainly there will be some bilateral deals done regardless, to protect existing supply chains integrated into European companies.

CaptainZapp 10y ago

Case in point. We'll continue to trade with Europe even without unrestricted immigration I think the city, as in the financial industry, which is a very important part of the British economy begs to differ.

nikcub 10y ago

> As if people from Sunderland or rural Wales were concerned about the cost of holidaying the Riviera or taking a hit on their non-existent stock portfolios. Economic downturns and recessions disproportionately affect the poor[0] and disadvantaged[1]. [0] http://www.russellsage.org/research/special-initiatives/great-recession/great-recession-rfp http://www.russellsage.org/research/special-initiatives/grea... [1] https://www.aclu.org/sites/default/files/field_document/discrimlend_final.pdf https://www.aclu.org/sites/default/files/field_document/disc...

crdoconnor 10y ago
A) The parts of England that voted to exit were already in recession and nobody noticed. B) Actually they'll stand to do better because: * There will be less competition for jobs, meaning a rise in wages. * Westminster is more likely to direct funding their way in order to avoid another repeat of Thursday. * The low pound will be good for export industries.
- wolfwyrd 10y ago
  They'll still get hit hardest. Weak pound means more expensive imports. UK imports ~40% of it's food [1]. That food will now cost more to import raising prices at the supermarkets. Poorer people spend a larger %'age of their income on essentials like food. The weak pound means importing oil (priced in USD) will be more expensive. This will affect Petrol prices (we're already seeing a 2-3p rise at the pumps). Poorer people spend a larger %'age of their income on essentials like fuel. There are a number of knock-on effects from the weak pound. Yes it's good for exports but overall it's going to be a rough couple of years for the already disadvantaged. Speaking to your point on competition as well - if the UK wishes to join the EU free market they will most likely need to accept freedom of movement. No treaty has ever been agreed with any country without this caveat (that covers the Swiss, Norway etc). It's possible that the UK may be an exception but it's unlikely. [1] http://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/issue/uk.html http://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/issue/uk.html
  - crdoconnor 10y ago
    >They'll still get hit hardest. Weak pound means more expensive imports. UK imports ~40% of it's food I can think of one rule which will get revoked in that case: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Set-aside https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Set-aside Much like Russia (which suffered a much worse currency slump and also imports a lot of food), the UK will likely roll with it and engage in import substitution. >Speaking to your point on competition as well - if the UK wishes to join the EU free market they will most likely need to accept freedom of movement. That's clearly the deal the remainers wanted to take but if I recall correctly they lost. At the low end I'm pretty sure the wage rises coming from fewer Poles, etc. will at least match - and possibly outstrip inflation caused by newly instituted 2-4% tariffs.
    - drcongo 10y ago
      Have you read the linked article? The leave campaigners are now furiously back-pedalling on their claims about reduced immigration. I'm intrigued as to why you think there'll be "fewer Poles etc.". Where are these extra jobs going to come from with a rock bottom pound and markets in freefall? Do you believe this was a vote about repatriation or something?

Brakenshire 10y ago

WTO rules would be completely disastrous. WTO only deals with goods, and the UK is overwhelmingly a service economy, and even in goods you have significant tariffs (10% on cars for instance, which is a major UK industry). Projections I read in the FT for a return to WTO trading are for a 3-7% fall in GDP, which is not far off the scale of the 2008 recession. Thank god it won't be nearly as bad as that. I'd actually say comparing to WTO was an element of the genuine scaremongering of the remain campaign, because almost certainly there will be some bilateral deals done regardless, to protect existing supply chains integrated into European companies.