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Slightly higher trade tariffs are the best case scenario though. There's a lot riding on the London real estate market at the moment, the financial centre of E

Slightly higher trade tariffs are the best case scenario though. There's a lot riding on the London real estate market at the moment, the financial centre of Europe might be about to shift, and a whole lot of people who live on the wrong side of the border may or may not be incentivised to cross back (both EU migrants and British pensioners). I really do hope you're right, but it's not hard to see why people (and indeed the markets) are nervous. At this point there's no timeline, and it's not even clear who's going to be doing the negotiation to begin with. And then there is a long list of European parties with non-negligible support who are quite keen to follow the same route. Looping back into the OP, the potential for even mild trampling is sizeable.

cm2187 10y ago
I don't really understand by what mean the financial centre will move because of brexit. London has been a financial centre way before the EU even existed, and the bankers do not need to be located where they book things. All banks will need to do is to open or buy a bank in the EU and book their activities there. Some staff will have to move, most won't. If traders or asset managers have to choose between living in London vs Zurich, Luxembourg or Frankfurt, you can bet they will prefer London because of the language and quality of life. Many financial institutions are based in Delaware in the US, but are really ran from New York. Is Delaware really a financial centre competing with New York? There has been a lot of fear mongering going on in this campaign (on both side) and I would take with a big pinch of salt the catastrophic forecasts of the world post brexit. Disclaimer: I work in a bank in the UK.
- achamayou 10y ago
  There's a good summary of what may change here: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a3a92744-3a52-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7.html http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a3a92744-3a52-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8e... It's very open at this point (since nothing has been decided really), but it's quite difficult to believe that there won't be any shift at all and that London will be able to retain all of its existing financial services marketshare in Europe. I won't comment on your claims about the quality of life in those cities vs London, but I think it's worth bearing in mind the fact that they already have a significant amount of financial businesses today, and that traders and asset managers may not like being paid in a rapidly depreciating currency. There are really some justified concerns about what's going to happen to the financial industry in the UK post-Brexit, it's not just all mindless fear mongering. Your comparison with Delaware and NY isn't applicable at all really. The US operates under a single currency, with a single set of financial regulators, with an even stronger version of passporting. There are local differences in laws and taxes applicable to corporations between states, but nothing like what you find when you cross an actual border.
- Bombthecat 10y ago
  Wow, you sound like an it guys I worked with in IT who thought that IT will never be out sourced to another region / country... For what ever reason...
gozur88 10y ago
>There's a lot riding on the London real estate market at the moment, the financial centre of Europe might be about to shift, and a whole lot of people who live on the wrong side of the border may or may not be incentivised to cross back (both EU migrants and British pensioners). The London real estate market is in a bubble, which should be obvious by the number of places that are purchased and then left empty. The sooner a bubble like that pops the better, but in this case Brexit is likely to prolong it - the UK in general and London in particular have gone out of their way to attract wealthy people, and Brexit will make it easier. That goes double for the financial sector. Most of the doom and gloom economic stuff is just a primal scream from people who are angry at those clods in the UK who decided they would vote in their own interests.

cm2187 10y ago

I don't really understand by what mean the financial centre will move because of brexit. London has been a financial centre way before the EU even existed, and the bankers do not need to be located where they book things. All banks will need to do is to open or buy a bank in the EU and book their activities there. Some staff will have to move, most won't. If traders or asset managers have to choose between living in London vs Zurich, Luxembourg or Frankfurt, you can bet they will prefer London because of the language and quality of life. Many financial institutions are based in Delaware in the US, but are really ran from New York. Is Delaware really a financial centre competing with New York? There has been a lot of fear mongering going on in this campaign (on both side) and I would take with a big pinch of salt the catastrophic forecasts of the world post brexit. Disclaimer: I work in a bank in the UK.

achamayou 10y ago
There's a good summary of what may change here: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a3a92744-3a52-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7.html http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a3a92744-3a52-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8e... It's very open at this point (since nothing has been decided really), but it's quite difficult to believe that there won't be any shift at all and that London will be able to retain all of its existing financial services marketshare in Europe. I won't comment on your claims about the quality of life in those cities vs London, but I think it's worth bearing in mind the fact that they already have a significant amount of financial businesses today, and that traders and asset managers may not like being paid in a rapidly depreciating currency. There are really some justified concerns about what's going to happen to the financial industry in the UK post-Brexit, it's not just all mindless fear mongering. Your comparison with Delaware and NY isn't applicable at all really. The US operates under a single currency, with a single set of financial regulators, with an even stronger version of passporting. There are local differences in laws and taxes applicable to corporations between states, but nothing like what you find when you cross an actual border.
Bombthecat 10y ago
Wow, you sound like an it guys I worked with in IT who thought that IT will never be out sourced to another region / country... For what ever reason...

gozur88 10y ago

>There's a lot riding on the London real estate market at the moment, the financial centre of Europe might be about to shift, and a whole lot of people who live on the wrong side of the border may or may not be incentivised to cross back (both EU migrants and British pensioners). The London real estate market is in a bubble, which should be obvious by the number of places that are purchased and then left empty. The sooner a bubble like that pops the better, but in this case Brexit is likely to prolong it - the UK in general and London in particular have gone out of their way to attract wealthy people, and Brexit will make it easier. That goes double for the financial sector. Most of the doom and gloom economic stuff is just a primal scream from people who are angry at those clods in the UK who decided they would vote in their own interests.