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If it was so obvious to those economists that "Leave" would win this particular referendum, they could have made millions trading on that confidence.
by jessriedel 10y ago
If it was so obvious to those economists that "Leave" would win this particular referendum, they could have made millions trading on that confidence.
- stcredzero 10y agoIf it was so obvious to those economists that "Leave" would win this particular referendum, they could have made millions trading on that confidence. I keep on telling people that there is an extreme disconnect between the "upper" and "lower" echelons of society. The cultural/societal disconnect is stark and huge -- to the point where people can't even overcome it for millions of dollars! Warning: There is now an extreme disconnect between the "upper" and "lower" echelons of society!
- Mikeb85 10y agoI guarantee plenty of traders say it coming. But most traders aren't writing for mainstream publications either.
- jessriedel 10y agoThose "plenty of traders" were in the small minority. If they were in the majority, then the markets wouldn't have moved so much following the outcome! So yes, before a messay probabilistic evet, there was a minority of experts who thought it would go one way...but a majority who thought it would go the other. Hardly obvious that Leave would win!
- kristianc 10y agoMost of the big money (at the bookmakers at least) was being staked on Remain and the currency sell offs are largely down to traders being stuck in the wrong positions.
- jessriedel 10y agoThings like the currency markets had way more money implicitly bet on the results than the pittance with bookmakers / prediction markets.
- Mikeb85 10y agoMost of the big money isn't traders, but banks, oil corps, they take currency positions to expedite business dealings. 'Traders' are in it just for profit. The 'big money' did wake up late, but they also don't generally speculate.