3 ms·
Glad they point this out, although it's been quite obvious to economists for awhile. And yes, it is only the beginning. The EU will fall, Trump will win, and
by Mikeb85 10y ago
Glad they point this out, although it's been quite obvious to economists for awhile. And yes, it is only the beginning. The EU will fall, Trump will win, and free trade will be scaled back until we figure out a better way of taking care of our citizens (and the welfare state/guaranteed income might be the answer, but not at current levels of immigration).
- jessriedel 10y agoIf it was so obvious to those economists that "Leave" would win this particular referendum, they could have made millions trading on that confidence.
- stcredzero 10y agoIf it was so obvious to those economists that "Leave" would win this particular referendum, they could have made millions trading on that confidence. I keep on telling people that there is an extreme disconnect between the "upper" and "lower" echelons of society. The cultural/societal disconnect is stark and huge -- to the point where people can't even overcome it for millions of dollars! Warning: There is now an extreme disconnect between the "upper" and "lower" echelons of society!
- Mikeb85 10y agoI guarantee plenty of traders say it coming. But most traders aren't writing for mainstream publications either.
- jessriedel 10y agoThose "plenty of traders" were in the small minority. If they were in the majority, then the markets wouldn't have moved so much following the outcome! So yes, before a messay probabilistic evet, there was a minority of experts who thought it would go one way...but a majority who thought it would go the other. Hardly obvious that Leave would win!
- kristianc 10y agoMost of the big money (at the bookmakers at least) was being staked on Remain and the currency sell offs are largely down to traders being stuck in the wrong positions.
- jessriedel 10y agoThings like the currency markets had way more money implicitly bet on the results than the pittance with bookmakers / prediction markets.
- Mikeb85 10y agoMost of the big money isn't traders, but banks, oil corps, they take currency positions to expedite business dealings. 'Traders' are in it just for profit. The 'big money' did wake up late, but they also don't generally speculate.
- maxxxxx 10y agoSomehow I doubt Trump will be able to answer these questions.
- stcredzero 10y agoHis primary value is as a symptom. He is the blood in the stool.
- Mikeb85 10y agoNever said he'd answer or fix anything. But his popularity is due to the fact that he is tapping into working class anger over globalism... Also, once the general hits, watch him come out as a moderate, pragmatic leader. All the rhetoric was to win the Republican primaries and separate himself from all the bland conservatives.
- Aelinsaar 10y agoHe'll try to adopt moderate, pragmatic stances, but he's still going to be someone who can't help, but respond to perceived slights, no matter how old or minor. That's a bit of a fatal flaw in a politician.
- chillacy 10y agoHe's been a loud, offensive, and narcissistic all his career: Reagan administration's thoughts on him pestering them: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2016/06/22/daily-202-reagan-white-house-viewed-trump-and-his-large-ego-warily/5769f9e3981b92a22d278fa5/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-2... Or in 1989, trump takes out a newspaper ad calling for the death penalty for 5 black teenagers, later the 5 are exonerated via DNA evidence: http://www.newyorker.com/news/amy-davidson/donald-trump-and-the-central-park-five http://www.newyorker.com/news/amy-davidson/donald-trump-and-... I think his willingness to be honest and polarizing is a respectable quality, which is why some love him. But if he turns out to become moderate for the sake of PR, then there will really be nothing about him I can respect.