Maybe they were but they actually statistically came to that conclusion. In the same sense that people think that given that it has been all heads for the past

Maybe they were but they actually statistically came to that conclusion. In the same sense that people think that given that it has been all heads for the past 10 flips then the chance it is tails is higher in the next (it's not) >You can't really apply your statistical thinking in that scenario. The main idea behind Bayes is that you can apply probabilistic reasoning to anything where you don't have complete knowledge (which means, short of 1+1, is everything)