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> We all knew that a Brexit vote would unleash forces we didn’t understand – a series of rolling crises in high finance, macro-economics, politics and diplomacy

> We all knew that a Brexit vote would unleash forces we didn’t understand – a series of rolling crises in high finance, macro-economics, politics and diplomacy I find things like this shocking. That most of these articles are just shooting from the hip. When Cameron first floated the idea of the Brexit. He did so, consulting all the civil servants in the country. You know, the ones who actually run the country and know exactly what needs to done should a leave vote happen. There is no scrambling around, there is no forces we don't understand, there is no crises in high finance, politics or diplomacy. This is a country that had it's own empire and had 200 civil servants to run India. I constantly laugh at postings here that Germany is going to take Finance and the Tech center from London and that the UK Economy is going to collapse. The UK did just fine outside of the europe before the EU turned into the EU. It will do FINE just outside of the EU. What a lot of people need to remember. Is what Germany is going to do now. How will it AFFORD the monies that the UK was paying. The German people are the ones who are going to foot that bill. Also, Hollande is on shaky ground. Le Penn may win and therefore will most certainly want her own Frexit vote. Merkle, is on shaky ground, she's up for re-election next year? What if she loses? Yeah, interesting times ahead. But in some respects. The UK may actually be doing better. Watch this space.

selimthegrim 10y ago
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/27/global-order-britain-survive-eu-alternative-economic-model https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/27/global...
mike_hearn 10y ago
Hollande is on way worse than shaky ground. It's hard to see how he could ever get reelected now, he may not even bother running. I've written a blog post on the upcoming votes in 2017 that could, if they go the "wrong" way, completely wreck the EU or at least radically change the negotiating outlook: https://medium.com/@octskyward/ok-what-now-e3f64d38f7 https://medium.com/@octskyward/ok-what-now-e3f64d38f7 I am finding it very entertaining how people who see themselves as cosmopolitan, worldly and intellectual so drastically fail to pay attention to what's going on elsewhere. The EU is a disaster zone. It's run by an alcoholic who has turned up to summit wasted and then literally slapped world leaders in the face. Faced with the worst blow the EU has ever faced he gave a press conference in which he answered only two questions, to the second of which he simply said "no" and then walked out. The president of the EU Parliament said he thought the UK was "holding the continent to ransom because of an internal fight in the Tory party" AFTER the vote took place. The people arguing that they need to secede from the UK in order to rejoin the EU, don't seem to have noticed that the EU is rapidly becoming a basket case that is seeing radically anti-EU politicians topping the polls in major, important economies ... whilst its leaders submerge themselves in denial.
- realusername 10y ago
  The situation in France is way worse that what can be seen in the media, 3 months of major strikes with even petrol shortage in half of the country, the president has only 13% support, the lowest of the 5th republic. They even had gunshots on the main building of the party. The socialist party (equivalent of UK's labour) is dead as dead and I expect it to break into pieces as people are going to create new left parties. On the left side, the far left is almost guarantee to win. On the right side, the party is weak and polluted by internal fights and if they choose the wrong candidate, they are also dead. The country is the most anti-EU country in Europe, even more than the UK, only Greece is toping France on that aspect. Although it's not for the same reasons as the UK. The next election, only in April is going to be pretty intense.
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]
lhnz 10y ago
Indeed. It should confuse any reasonable person that despite the death-knell 'Leave' has meant to be to trade and immigration, it's supported by many powerful free-trade libertarian think-tanks. For example: the Hoover Institution [0], the Cato Institute [1], the Adam Smith Institute [2], etc. For whatever reason nobody likes to admit that there are intelligent people with different beliefs to them. [0] http://www.hoover.org/research/cautious-yes-brexit http://www.hoover.org/research/cautious-yes-brexit [1] http://www.cato.org/publications/economic-development-bulletin/european-union-critical-assessment http://www.cato.org/publications/economic-development-bullet... [2] http://www.adamsmith.org/evolution-not-revolution http://www.adamsmith.org/evolution-not-revolution
wrong_variable 10y ago
The UK had the most Europ-skpetic vote in the EU Parliment - its something that Boris and his cornies never mention, they constantly got overruled since they were always against anything that allowed the EU project to move forward. The UK will go on fine just like The republic of Congo is doing fine. The EU for a long time has provided great boost in wealth for about 40 years. Its only due to the financial crisis that things have not been really great lately. However the European Project is much larger than any single nation state or generation of people. Given the change that has been happening over the last 50 years, do you think trade, movement of labor is going to decrease in the next 100 years ? America is an economical powerhouse with 3/5 of Europe's population. Same goes for China. Even India has more clout when it it dealing with american companies since the consumer base has more value. Europe has two paths, one is disintegration and one is faster and more united integration. The important thing from the Perspective of British interest is that both path leads to Britain being a loser. If the European Project fails then Britain is going to suffer as much as any other European country ( one of the reason why britain's foreign policy for 400+ years has been promoting continued stability in Europe ) And if Europe goes down a path of deeper integration the UK will be a competitor to a trading bloc that is essentially is a giant Star ( 15 Trillion vs 2 Trillion ) The EU also has plans for integration with Turkey, a country with the largest land army in Europe. As much as british people think of Turkey as a joke - its one of the fastest growing economy in the world. Who do you think will have more leverage when forging trade deals with the middle east ? Turkey and Friends or the UK ? The thing that most british people do not seem to realize is how small 55 million is - in a flat world of 7 billion people. It used to be different, but not anymore.
- tremon 10y ago
  The EU also has plans for integration with Turkey It has had those plans since 1993. They haven't gone anywhere (there's effectively been a stalemate since 2002), and I don't expect meaningful progress for another generation.
grey-area 10y ago
I constantly laugh at postings here that Germany is going to take Finance and the Tech center from London I know people working in finance in the city who believe this, large banks like Morgan Stanley believe it and are moving staff, what makes you think it won't happen? http://uk.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-eu-referendum-and-brexit-impact-on-financial-markets-2016-6 http://uk.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-eu-referendum-a...
7952 10y ago
Or in other words the UK is exceptional, and will avoid the forces that wreck the economies of other nations in similar situations. Of course at many times in the last 100 years our economy was not "just fine". The post war era was a string of constant economic trouble, despite having many thousands of eager civil servants. And the 1930s saw horrible unemployment and desperation. You have to admit that brexit is an act of enormous bravado. People have forgotten just how bad things can get. Right now we are spending the dividend afforded to us by decades of peace. I hope it is worth the price. You may be right in everything you say, but I just wanted the prosperity to last just a little longer.

selimthegrim 10y ago

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/27/global-order-britain-survive-eu-alternative-economic-model https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/27/global...

mike_hearn 10y ago

Hollande is on way worse than shaky ground. It's hard to see how he could ever get reelected now, he may not even bother running. I've written a blog post on the upcoming votes in 2017 that could, if they go the "wrong" way, completely wreck the EU or at least radically change the negotiating outlook: https://medium.com/@octskyward/ok-what-now-e3f64d38f7 https://medium.com/@octskyward/ok-what-now-e3f64d38f7 I am finding it very entertaining how people who see themselves as cosmopolitan, worldly and intellectual so drastically fail to pay attention to what's going on elsewhere. The EU is a disaster zone. It's run by an alcoholic who has turned up to summit wasted and then literally slapped world leaders in the face. Faced with the worst blow the EU has ever faced he gave a press conference in which he answered only two questions, to the second of which he simply said "no" and then walked out. The president of the EU Parliament said he thought the UK was "holding the continent to ransom because of an internal fight in the Tory party" AFTER the vote took place. The people arguing that they need to secede from the UK in order to rejoin the EU, don't seem to have noticed that the EU is rapidly becoming a basket case that is seeing radically anti-EU politicians topping the polls in major, important economies ... whilst its leaders submerge themselves in denial.

realusername 10y ago
The situation in France is way worse that what can be seen in the media, 3 months of major strikes with even petrol shortage in half of the country, the president has only 13% support, the lowest of the 5th republic. They even had gunshots on the main building of the party. The socialist party (equivalent of UK's labour) is dead as dead and I expect it to break into pieces as people are going to create new left parties. On the left side, the far left is almost guarantee to win. On the right side, the party is weak and polluted by internal fights and if they choose the wrong candidate, they are also dead. The country is the most anti-EU country in Europe, even more than the UK, only Greece is toping France on that aspect. Although it's not for the same reasons as the UK. The next election, only in April is going to be pretty intense.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]

lhnz 10y ago

Indeed. It should confuse any reasonable person that despite the death-knell 'Leave' has meant to be to trade and immigration, it's supported by many powerful free-trade libertarian think-tanks. For example: the Hoover Institution [0], the Cato Institute [1], the Adam Smith Institute [2], etc. For whatever reason nobody likes to admit that there are intelligent people with different beliefs to them. [0] http://www.hoover.org/research/cautious-yes-brexit http://www.hoover.org/research/cautious-yes-brexit [1] http://www.cato.org/publications/economic-development-bulletin/european-union-critical-assessment http://www.cato.org/publications/economic-development-bullet... [2] http://www.adamsmith.org/evolution-not-revolution http://www.adamsmith.org/evolution-not-revolution

wrong_variable 10y ago

The UK had the most Europ-skpetic vote in the EU Parliment - its something that Boris and his cornies never mention, they constantly got overruled since they were always against anything that allowed the EU project to move forward. The UK will go on fine just like The republic of Congo is doing fine. The EU for a long time has provided great boost in wealth for about 40 years. Its only due to the financial crisis that things have not been really great lately. However the European Project is much larger than any single nation state or generation of people. Given the change that has been happening over the last 50 years, do you think trade, movement of labor is going to decrease in the next 100 years ? America is an economical powerhouse with 3/5 of Europe's population. Same goes for China. Even India has more clout when it it dealing with american companies since the consumer base has more value. Europe has two paths, one is disintegration and one is faster and more united integration. The important thing from the Perspective of British interest is that both path leads to Britain being a loser. If the European Project fails then Britain is going to suffer as much as any other European country ( one of the reason why britain's foreign policy for 400+ years has been promoting continued stability in Europe ) And if Europe goes down a path of deeper integration the UK will be a competitor to a trading bloc that is essentially is a giant Star ( 15 Trillion vs 2 Trillion ) The EU also has plans for integration with Turkey, a country with the largest land army in Europe. As much as british people think of Turkey as a joke - its one of the fastest growing economy in the world. Who do you think will have more leverage when forging trade deals with the middle east ? Turkey and Friends or the UK ? The thing that most british people do not seem to realize is how small 55 million is - in a flat world of 7 billion people. It used to be different, but not anymore.

tremon 10y ago
The EU also has plans for integration with Turkey It has had those plans since 1993. They haven't gone anywhere (there's effectively been a stalemate since 2002), and I don't expect meaningful progress for another generation.

grey-area 10y ago

I constantly laugh at postings here that Germany is going to take Finance and the Tech center from London I know people working in finance in the city who believe this, large banks like Morgan Stanley believe it and are moving staff, what makes you think it won't happen? http://uk.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-eu-referendum-and-brexit-impact-on-financial-markets-2016-6 http://uk.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-eu-referendum-a...

7952 10y ago

Or in other words the UK is exceptional, and will avoid the forces that wreck the economies of other nations in similar situations. Of course at many times in the last 100 years our economy was not "just fine". The post war era was a string of constant economic trouble, despite having many thousands of eager civil servants. And the 1930s saw horrible unemployment and desperation. You have to admit that brexit is an act of enormous bravado. People have forgotten just how bad things can get. Right now we are spending the dividend afforded to us by decades of peace. I hope it is worth the price. You may be right in everything you say, but I just wanted the prosperity to last just a little longer.