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> Okay, assuming that is true, is there an intuitive way to understand that? And the fact that lim[n-> ∞] 0.5^n = 0 unfortunately won't do for me, that is true
by kareemsabri 10y ago
> Okay, assuming that is true, is there an intuitive way to understand that? And the fact that lim[n-> ∞] 0.5^n = 0 unfortunately won't do for me, that is true for any specific infinite sequence, even those containing 50/50 heads and tails.
That's true, but only if you pick ONE specific sequence. The likelihood of any precise sequence of heads/tails is equally unlikely as all heads. However, we are not fixing the outcomes ordering, but simply saying taken to infinity the distribution of outcomes will tend to 50/50.
> I still would not really understand what forces my coin to show tails eventually
Nothing forces it to show heads either.
> but if there were a measure showing that those two sets have measure 1 respectively 0 it would already be easier to swallow
Well, we've already proven it's impossible to have all heads infinitely. The same would be true of any non-uniform sequence. Any sequence that favours heads by any margin at all, taken to infinity, would necessarily contain an infinite sub-sequence that contains all heads, which we've proven is impossible by the limit to infinity.
- danbruc 10y agoWell, we've already proven it's impossible to have all heads infinitely. The same would be true of any non-uniform sequence. Any sequence that favours heads by any margin at all, taken to infinity, would necessarily contain an infinite sub-sequence that contains all heads, which we've proven is impossible by the limit to infinity. Have we? We only said that the probability of having an infinite sequence of all heads is zero but not that it is impossible to obtain that result. After all the probability of any infinite sequence is zero and therefore if we would equate probability zero with impossible to obtain, then we could obtain no infinite sequence at all. The second part is obviously wrong, H H T H H T... ad infinitum obviously favors heads over tails but does not contain an infinite subsequence of all heads.